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Old 22-11-2016, 11:21   #121
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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Looks like an equal area in the Artic (sp) that is 36 degrees below the norm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
That would be Siberia, not the Arctic.
For the CF nitpickers:

Looks like an equal area in Siberia, a part of the arctic region, is 36 degrees below the norm.

From Wikapedia - The Arctic (/ˈɑːrktɪk/ or /ˈɑːrtɪk/)[1][Note 1] is a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth. The Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and parts of Alaska (United States), Canada, Finland, Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. Land within the Arctic region has seasonally varying snow and ice cover, with predominantly treeless permafrost-containing tundra. Arctic seas contain seasonal sea ice in many places.

Areas north of the Arctic circle.

The US definition of the Arctic is an even larger area.
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Old 22-11-2016, 13:23   #122
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
Original post

Looks like an equal area in the Artic (sp) that is 36 degrees below the norm.



For the CF nitpickers:

Looks like an equal area in Siberia, a part of the arctic region, is 36 degrees below the norm.

From Wikapedia - The Arctic (/ˈɑːrktɪk/ or /ˈɑːrtɪk/)[1][Note 1] is a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth. The Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and parts of Alaska (United States), Canada, Finland, Greenland (Denmark), Iceland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. Land within the Arctic region has seasonally varying snow and ice cover, with predominantly treeless permafrost-containing tundra. Arctic seas contain seasonal sea ice in many places.

Areas north of the Arctic circle.

The US definition of the Arctic is an even larger area.
Nitpicking indeed. The arctic circle is in black. The most generally accepted definition of the Arctic is, as you seem to agree, 'North of the Arctic Circle'.

So...

"Looks like an equal area in Siberia, a part of the arctic region, is 36 degrees below the norm."

is equally false.


What you might have said is, 'There is a region in sub-arctic Siberia that is about 36 degrees below the norm, but because of the distortion induced in Siberia's representation on the map, I am unable to compare its' area with the area in the Arctic. I am curious how this will affect the average global temperature calculations."
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Old 22-11-2016, 13:34   #123
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Compare the areas...my guess is the area in the "arctic" Siberia that is minus 36 is somewhat equal.

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Old 22-11-2016, 14:22   #124
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbunyard View Post
...What you might have said is, 'There is a region in sub-arctic Siberia that is about 36 degrees below the norm, but because of the distortion induced in Siberia's representation on the map, I am unable to compare its' area with the area in the Arctic. I am curious how this will affect the average global temperature calculations.
The legend below the map indicates that the Northern Hemisphere is 0.94°C above the 1979-2000 baseline, and the whole Earth is 0.55°C above same.

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Old 22-11-2016, 16:22   #125
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
Compare the areas...my guess is the area in the "arctic" Siberia that is minus 36 is somewhat equal.
If almost zero is 'somewhat equal' to 1,250,000 sq. mi., I guess you're right...
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Old 23-11-2016, 06:53   #126
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Lake Superior,

The mechanics of global warming are the the temperature differential between the equator and poles decreases, poles warm faster. That reduced differential slows and destabilizes the jet stream (polar vortex). Think of a top slowing and wobbling.

Very simplistically (among many other factors) thats why there are hot and cold incursions.

It's because of global warming.
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Old 23-11-2016, 07:10   #127
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Why does the baseline keep changing and who changes it? Does anyone know? Earth's warming is much more clearly stated when the 1970 baseline is used.
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Old 23-11-2016, 07:15   #128
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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Lake Superior,

The mechanics of global warming are the the temperature differential between the equator and poles decreases, poles warm faster. That reduced differential slows and destabilizes the jet stream (polar vortex). Think of a top slowing and wobbling.

Very simplistically (among many other factors) thats why there are hot and cold incursions.

It's because of global warming.
You can't be serious. Do you know you are trying to teach atmospheric circulation in three incoherent sentences??

FWIW, I would say this to you directly if you were sitting across the table or in the locker room after hockey having a beer. Cheers!
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Old 23-11-2016, 07:21   #129
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

hpeer, I was going to say how nice it was of you to try to explain things to LS. I was also going to say, "good luck".
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Old 23-11-2016, 07:22   #130
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

To jimbunyard: you forced me to go to the source of the anomaly figure. They have the same figure rotated to view down the pole for a way better perspective. I then inscribed the arctic circle on the figure.

You are correct. Only vestiges of the cooling anomaly are inside the Arctic. Unfortunately, I left the figure at home but could post it later if you want me to.

The bigger picture is however the below normal area is about the same size and magnitude as the above normal area thus negating much of a net increase in the northern hemisphere temperature on that day.
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Old 23-11-2016, 07:38   #131
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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hpeer, I was going to say how nice it was of you to try to explain things to LS. I was also going to say, "good luck".

A link to the source would probably be better than an abbreviated paraphrase.
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Old 23-11-2016, 08:05   #132
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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hpeer, I was going to say how nice it was of you to try to explain things to LS. I was also going to say, "good luck".
Thanks. It wasn't really for him but for all the others who pass through.

It's such a complicated topic, people (even researchers) get lost in the weeds of trying to understand. Yet the fundamental mechanics have been known for well over a hundred years, gross predictions have been made, and current trends indicate the very worst of those predictions are coming true.

The graphs in the link are pretty clear. No rocket science needed. Use you own eyes to see the trends.

Arctic News: Monthly CO₂ not under 400 ppm in 2016
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Old 23-11-2016, 09:16   #133
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

I find this obsession with a NWP entertaining but somewhat frightening from the perspective of someone who spent about 12 years commercial fishing, crabbing and hunting north of the Arctic Circle. The folks who are consumed with ice coverage, pack flow and passage openings from the comfort of their armchair at home, need to get out and freeze off a couple of fingers and toes before making some of their comments. At least Jackdale is out there livin' the dream.
For me, I have no interest in trying to kill myself as I did back in the '60's and '70's trying to earn a living out there.
Have fun! Phil
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Old 23-11-2016, 09:48   #134
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

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Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
A link to the source would probably be better than an abbreviated paraphrase.
I presume that was actually in response to my incoherent post above.

So here you go, Jennifer Francis, Rutgers meteorologist.

Actually her talks are interesting for anyone considering a high latitude Atlantic crossing.

I haven't viewed this particular talk yet, i have listed to some earlier lectures, and I scanned this for relevance to your points.

It's long 1-1/2 hours.

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Old 23-11-2016, 09:55   #135
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Re: Northwest Passage - 2016

Quote:
Originally Posted by Capt Phil View Post
I find this obsession with a NWP entertaining but somewhat frightening from the perspective of someone who spent about 12 years commercial fishing, crabbing and hunting north of the Arctic Circle. The folks who are consumed with ice coverage, pack flow and passage openings from the comfort of their armchair at home, need to get out and freeze off a couple of fingers and toes before making some of their comments. At least Jackdale is out there livin' the dream.
For me, I have no interest in trying to kill myself as I did back in the '60's and '70's trying to earn a living out there.
Have fun! Phil
Not trying to pour rain on your memories but after living over thirty years up here 70deg N, there's a big change in temperatures during these decades. Not saying it's impossible to get frostbites or worse nowadays but the warmer Arctic is allready here and seems it's getting warmer.

Just writing to entertain myself on my armchair after days work in a pouring rain in Vadsų Norway, dammed climate change, it should be winter now but it aint, sun is down for the next two months and Eddard Stark was wrong "Winter is coming", nope, Winter is cancelled..

BR Teddy
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