Northwest Passage - 2016

[adoxograph]

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

Personal observation is irrelevant due to the fact that your memories are unreliable, as are all peoples memories. You cannot see or observe global warming using your body, your personal observations, or your memory of events. Reason being, we are talking 1/10ths of a degree over several decades.

Yes Teddy, what would you know. Do you think you are qualified only because you live there? Don't you know pseudo-scientist like sailnow must know it better by declaring data "retroactive" while at the same time not comprehending what the term theory really means?

How dare, Teddy to lecture him.

Don't mind me I'm going back in my corner watching the show. This should be fun ...

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

Personal observation is irrelevant due to the fact that your memories are unreliable, as are all peoples memories. You cannot see or observe global warming using your body, your personal observations, or your memory of events. Reason being, we are talking 1/10ths of a degree over several decades.

I didn't tell you to trust my memory, instead of real facts. Global warming is basicly warming high latitudes. 1/10th degree in global warming is 2 degrees arctic warming. But whether you believe facts or not is irrelevant, just amazes me how ignorant some want to be..

BR Teddy

[newhaul]

This is really not on point I suppose but there has been an increase of Arctic sea ice of just about 200,000 km2 within the last 7 days according to the satalite composite posted by the nsidc .

[newhaul]

According to the image posted by Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather and Meteorology - Full resolution map it appears that the nwp may soon be impassable again . ( for the year) . And with a strong la Nina being forecast for this winter I wonder what it will look like next July.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

According to the image posted by Environment and Climate Change Canada - Weather and Meteorology - Full resolution map it appears that the nwp may soon be impassable again . ( for the year) . And with a strong la Nina being forecast for this winter I wonder what it will look like next July.

This is time of the year in which the ice starts to grow.

There is no strong La Nina in the forecast.

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by newhaul

This is really not on point I suppose but there has been an increase of Arctic sea ice of just about 200,000 km2 within the last 7 days according to the satalite composite posted by the nsidc .

About the time just a week earlier than normally. Thou most of the increase of ice spreaded area was due resent storms on the Siberian side of the arctic, not so much of new ice yet.
Starting from 1979 the passages have been practically ice free: NSR -90 -95 -05 and since 2008 every summer. NWP -98 -99 -07 -10 -11 -12 -15 and 2016. Both have been navigatable some other summers too with some ice present. Not hard to see a pattern.

BR Teddy

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

Satellites don't lie.

Denialists misrepresent satellite data.

From the folks at RSS on the misuse of their satellite data.

The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures
Authors: Carl Mears

Date Added: Monday, September 22, 2014

Recently, a number of articles in the mainstream press have pointed out that there appears to have been little or no change in globally averaged temperature over the last two decades. Because of this, we are getting a lot of questions along the lines of “I saw this plot on a denialist web site. Is this really your data?” While some of these reports have "cherry-picked”their end points to make their evidence seem even stronger, there is not much doubt that the rate of warming since the late 1990’s is less than that predicted by most of the IPCC AR5 simulations of historical climate. This can be seen in the RSS data, as well as most other temperature datasets. For example, the figure below is a plot of the temperature anomaly (departure from normal) of the lower troposphere over the past 35 years from the RSS “Temperature Lower Troposphere” (TLT) dataset. For this plot we have averaged over almost the entire globe, from 80S to 80N, and used the entire TLT dataset, starting from 1979. (The denialists really like to fit trends starting in1997, so that the huge 1997-98 ENSO event is at the start of their time series, resulting in a linear fit with the smallest possible slope.)

Have a look at the graph from RSS.

Notice that not one single data point from 1994 to the present is below the mean. When temperatures are above average there is warming.



The Recent Slowing in the Rise of Global Temperatures | Remote Sensing Systems

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

Cornell failed on his first attempt, supporting what I said, that it opens every few years, as it historically has. So far no less ice then there has ever been. We have only been tracking it for a very very very short period of time, just like the global temperatures tracked from satellites.
As for ground temperature tracks, I have never seen a bigger joke in meteorological science then the retroactive temperature manipulation.

Take a look at this list of vessels that have transited the NWP.

http://www.americanpolar.org/wp-cont...ut-for-PDF.pdf

Notice a trend?

[kmacdonald]

For those of us that like warm weather, global warming is a good thing.

[jackdale]

26 seconds of Arctic sea in 2016.

This animation shows the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover from its wintertime maximum extent, which was reached on Mar. 24, 2016, and was the lowest on record for the second year in a row, to its apparent yearly minimum, which occurred on Sept. 10, 2016, and is the second lowest in the satellite era.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVJ9DfVhAYw

[DeepFrz]

What is really scary about the ice cap shrinkage is that a large percentage of the hard, thick multi-year ice is gone leaving only the softer more vulnerable and thinner single year ice.

[svtatoosh]

[QUOTE=jackdale;2212968]It was not until someone started making political statements. It was about yachts in the NWP.[/QUOT

Thanks for the work and updates Jackdale!
Nice.

Tom
Astoria

[svtatoosh]

Yep...the CBC article was over the top. Didn't even mention weather. And yes...I noticed a.bias also.

Tom
Astoria

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

Quantum mechanics? Ever had use for a transistor?

Relativity? Ever had use for GPS?

Or were you just listing things that 'pseudo scientific skeptics' like to kick around, and not making a judgement on their reality and value as descriptions of (and applications for) how things actually work?

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Or were you just listing things that 'pseudo scientific skeptics' like to kick around, and not making a judgement on their reality and value as descriptions of (and applications for) how things actually work?

I'm the guy at the dinner parties trying to make the point that engineers and scientists are more creative than artists and musicians.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

I'm the guy at the dinner parties trying to make the point that engineers and scientists are more creative than artists and musicians.

Then it shouldn't be surprising to you to find that many engineers and scientists are artists and musicians, and vice versa...