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Old 09-04-2015, 09:52   #1186
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

Just on the off chance that someone may ask me to state a position on tropospheric temperatures, now that I seem to involved in a discussion of them despite previously having no interest: the long term trend is warming of the troposphere, as per the IPCC.

From AR4:

Even if the troposphere wasn't warming (it is) that wouldn't alter the fact that the surface is, and therefore wouldn't alter the realities of AGW.

As for why the usual bloggers post RSS troposphere data and claim it it isn't warming because it doesn't show a short term warming trend: there are three MSU data sets used, and the RSS data shows some anomalous behaviour that other sets don't agree with.
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-r...er02_FINAL.pdf
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:01   #1187
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by Tensen View Post

Even if the troposphere wasn't warming (it is) that wouldn't alter the fact that the surface is, and therefore wouldn't alter the realities of AGW.

As for why the usual bloggers post RSS troposphere data and claim it it isn't warming because it doesn't show a short term warming trend: there are three MSU data sets used, and the RSS data shows some anomalous behaviour that other sets don't agree with.
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-r...er02_FINAL.pdf
Shades of Rakuflames Tensen, you are an 1/8 of the way there. Google is your friend. Check some of the NASA sites also. Points to study:

1. What is meant by the global surface temperature you refer to?

2. Why do many consider the satellite measurements to be a better estimate of global temperature than ground based measurements?
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:12   #1188
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by LakeSuperior View Post
Shades of Rakuflames Tensen, you are an 1/8 of the way there. Google is your friend. Check some of the NASA sites also. Points to study:
None of this has any discernible meaning to me.

Quote:
1. What is meant by the global surface temperature you refer to?
Point out where I've referred to a "global temperature".
Are you disputing the fact that surface temperatures are rising? There's plenty of evidence already posted in the thread that would say you're wrong, but I can post it again for you.

Quote:
2. Why do many consider the satellite measurements to be a better estimate of global temperature than ground based measurements?
If you want to say that satellite measurements are a better estimate of global temperature than ground based measurements, then just say so and back up your assertion with evidence. Don't ask loaded questions instead, it isn't as cute as you think it is.

I'm not able to comment on other people's considerations....I hope you don't think you're able to.
Are you for some reason assuming that satellite measurements are not also used in surface temperature data?

Should I assume you have no answers to the questions in my previous post on page 79?
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:29   #1189
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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I'm not able to comment on other people's considerations....I hope you don't think you're able to.
Are you for some reason assuming that satellite measurements are not also used in surface temperature data?
I have a feeling I am talking past you on all of my posts. There are a number of technical reasons why the satellite measurements are considered to be better estimates of the average global temperature estimates. You can google up a number of sites that discuss the measurement.

The sites will give you the necessary information to be able to begin to formulate for yourself and comment on other peoples (scientists) considerations on what is better measurement.
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:36   #1190
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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I have a feeling I am talking past you on all of my posts.
Ad hominem arguments mean nothing to me, and get you nowhere at all.

Quote:
There are a number of technical reasons why the satellite measurements are considered to be better estimates of the average global temperature estimates. You can google up a number of sites that discuss the measurement.
The satellite measurements? Which satellite measurements are you referring to? Better than what?

I'll ask again: are you assuming satellites are not used in surface temperature data?

And no I won't google it for you: if you make an assertion like this it's up to you to provide evidence for it. "Google it" is another example of something to say in an argument that gives you precisely zero traction.
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:39   #1191
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by Lake-Effect View Post
... not exactly.

I recall that the bird windmill/AGW remark was a 'claim' from you, suggesting some level of confidence. If you're going to 'claim' something so weak and easily disproved, it kind of undermines our confidence in your other arguments, doesn't it?
If you say so.

Quote:
If your dr told you there's a 95% chance you have a malignent tumour, you'd get naked and jump up on the operating room table before the dr looks up from their clipboard.
Let's look at it this way. If the doctor told you there was a 5% chance of saving your spouse's life if you donated a kidney, you wouldn't?
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:50   #1192
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
I guess foresight is not your strong suit.
Since that's your answer to: Exactly what havoc are we wreaking?
I'm guessing you've come up with zip, nada, null, zero, nought, nuttin' on that one.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:00   #1193
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Only peer reviewed evidence is of any reliable value.

What point are you actually providing evidence for? If it's that the "hot spot" in the troposphere doesn't exist, I'm not sure who you're providing it for, as no-one here's argued the point. I certainly haven't discussed it at all, and I appear to be the intended recipient of the link.

I truly don't care about the bird issue. I do care about the burden of proof. In the future please remember that it lies with the person making the assertion, and don't ask someone (not me) who denies your assertion to provide the evidence.
Ok, you provide the evidence that surface temperature has no correlation with atmospheric temperature using peer reviewed literature as evidence. I suspect you won't. You've made this statement a number of times and provided non of the "evidence" that you request from others.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:07   #1194
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Why would you post a link to to Marc Morano, a political hack, who quotes another blog instead of the actual paper? Hearsay and gossip are not evidence.

BTW - the abstract for the actual paper

Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modeled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere - Varotsos - 2013 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

"We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modeled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations."

Go to the source.
Sorry, I'll try better next time.

"We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modeled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations."

Layman's version:

"We should add hindsight parameters to our models then we can then thump our chests and bleat about how they agree with observations"
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:15   #1195
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

We've already establish in just 80 000 years or so the "land ice" will be gone at the current melt rate.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:21   #1196
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Ok, you provide the evidence that surface temperature has no correlation with atmospheric temperature using peer reviewed literature as evidence. I suspect you won't. You've made this statement a number of times and provided non of the "evidence" that you request from others.
What statement have I made a number of times?

I certainly haven't made a statement about correlation between surface and atmospheric temperatures, so don't ask me to provide evidence for it.

If you are asserting that there is no correlation (are you? I don't know) then it's up to you to provide the evidence. We've been over burden of proof already.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:25   #1197
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
The whole debate over whether the troposphere is, or is not, warming revolves around some pretty arcane technical details of satellite measurments that probably few of us can understand. With apologies to those of you who have a grand mal seizure any time Skeptical Science is mentioned, here is their BASIC explanation of the situation. For the more scientifically astute among us Skeptical Science also provides an INTERMEDIATE and ADVANCED explanation. Please note that MOST researchers believe that tropospheric temperatures ARE rising in concert with surface temperatures.

Satellite measurements of warming in the troposphere
Quote:
Originally Posted by SailOar View Post
The whole debate over whether the troposphere is, or is not, warming revolves around some pretty arcane technical details of satellite measurments that probably few of us can understand. With apologies to those of you who have a grand mal seizure any time Skeptical Science is mentioned, here is their BASIC explanation of the situation. For the more scientifically astute among us Skeptical Science also provides an INTERMEDIATE and ADVANCED explanation. Please note that MOST researchers believe that tropospheric temperatures ARE rising in concert with surface temperatures.

Satellite measurements of warming in the troposphere
Yet another model doesn't agree with observations "fix" by tweaking data. The odd thing is, Jackdale's telling us below (taken from one of my peer reviewed links Tensen demanded) that it's the model parameters and Mr Cook's telling us it's the satellite data. Gotta be one or the other, fellas.

This kind of smells like Jackdale's and Sneuman's figures on the anti-consensus petition.

A cynic might say it's junk science hiding under the skirt of peer reviewed literature.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:25   #1198
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Originally Posted by Reefmagnet View Post
Since that's your answer to: Exactly what havoc are we wreaking?
I'm guessing you've come up with zip, nada, null, zero, nought, nuttin' on that one.
The government of Canada is not known as a strong proponent of global warming.

However, they have produced an extensive study on adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This is the synthesis - it discusses many of the effects, both current and future.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...thesis_Eng.pdf

Give it a read. At least read Table 1 on page 7.

If you feel inclined - here is the full report.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...Report_Eng.pdf
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:26   #1199
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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Your really need to provide evidence for your assertion.

"Something" is rather vague.

"somewhere" is rather vague.
Your memory is rather vague. I've posted the link previously.
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:27   #1200
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Re: Global Warming Opens Up Antarctic Waterways

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The government of Canada is not known as a strong proponent of global warming.

However, they have produced an extensive study on adaptation and mitigation strategies.

This is the synthesis - it discusses many of the effects, both current and future.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...thesis_Eng.pdf

Give it a read. At least read Table 1 on page 7.

If you feel inclined - here is the full report.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrc...Report_Eng.pdf
No I don't feel inclined. Summarise the current list of disasters and the wreaked havoc to date.
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