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Old 10-09-2012, 14:10   #61
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Other Arctic Issues

I saw these stories today.

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And while countries will be intently focused on managing the situation in the Arctic Ocean, they won’t be able to ignore the effects of climate change on their own turf. This will be most obvious in Canada and Russia. Yury Morozov, a professor at the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and author of the Russian perspective, writes, “Currently, up to 40 percent of the infrastructure of Russian cities and towns built on permafrost is in critical condition because the frozen ground is melting. Apartment buildings and factories are gradually sinking into quagmires. Buildings are collapsing and pipelines are rupturing.”

And as that permafrost melts, of course, it releases large quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, further amplifying the warming that’s changing the Arctic and the rest of the world.
The rush to exploit an increasingly ice-free Arctic | Ars Technica

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On September 9, Andrew MacDougall, Chris Avis and I (Andrew Weaver) published a paper in the international journal Nature Geoscience. In it we quantify the magnitude of the permafrost carbon feedback to global warming that had been hitherto unaccounted for in previous assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The news is not good.

Instrumental records have clearly revealed that the world is about 0.8°C warmer than it was during pre-industrial times. Numerous studies have also indicated that as a consequence of existing levels of greenhouse gases, we have a commitment to an additional future global warming of between 0.6 and 0.7°C. Our analysis points out that the permafrost carbon feedback adds to this another 0.4 to 0.8°C warming. Taken together, the planet is committed to between 1.8 and 2.3°C of future global warming -- even if emissions reductions programs start to get implemented.
Andrew Weaver: The Latest Proof of Global Warming? Adios Summer Sea Ice

The Nature Geoscience story - http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo1573.html
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Old 20-09-2012, 16:06   #62
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Sea Surface Temperatures Reach Record Highs on Northeast Continental Shelf

"During the first six months of 2012, sea surface temperatures in the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem were the highest ever recorded, according to the latest Ecosystem Advisory issued by NOAA's Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC). Above-average temperatures were found in all parts of the ecosystem, from the ocean bottom to the sea surface and across the region, and the above average temperatures extended beyond the shelf break front to the Gulf Stream..."


More ➥ SS12.09 Sea Surface Temperatures Reach Record Highs on Northeast Continental Shelf
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Old 20-09-2012, 16:34   #63
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Gord

Swimming for humans might be more feasible, the ecological results seem pretty profound.
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Old 21-09-2012, 07:21   #64
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Unfortunately, the Americans don't believe the science, and probably expect a melting glacier to reveal Jesus on a dinosaur, whereas the Chinese don't care, and long for the day they can send a vast container ship full of plastic crap from Shanghai to Antwerp at 25% less fuel cost.

Meanwhile, the Canadians will continue to complain that the NWP is "domestic waters" and will be universally ignored.
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Old 21-09-2012, 07:50   #65
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

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Originally Posted by S/V Alchemy View Post
Unfortunately, the Americans don't believe the science, and probably expect a melting glacier to reveal Jesus on a dinosaur, whereas the Chinese don't care, and long for the day they can send a vast container ship full of plastic crap from Shanghai to Antwerp at 25% less fuel cost.

Meanwhile, the Canadians will continue to complain that the NWP is "domestic waters" and will be universally ignored.
I'm an American. It's a big country.

And before you become too self-congratulatory, note that CO2 emissions from the US have fallen precipitously in the past few years, and are on track to match the Eurozone. Of course, this is largely by accident, and the fact that natural gas continues to displace coal in US electricity production.
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Old 21-09-2012, 07:53   #66
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

...also, I'd point out that CO2 emissions per capita in the US is estimated to be 17.5 metric tons, while those from Canada are estimated to be 16.4 metric tons.
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:39   #67
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

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...also, I'd point out that CO2 emissions per capita in the US is estimated to be 17.5 metric tons, while those from Canada are estimated to be 16.4 metric tons.
Hard to emit when industry died and jobs were lost i guess?
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:41   #68
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Mostly, the US drop is due to fracking for natural gas displacing coal.
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:50   #69
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Whether man made or natural cyclic patterns are the root of the current climate is a fine argument. One thing that is NOT arguable is the requirement that CF rules be followed.
  • Personal attacks on others will not be tolerated. Challenge others' points of view and opinions, but do so respectfully and thoughtfully.
  • Personal attacks on others will not be tolerated. Challenge others' points of view and opinions, but do so respectfully and thoughtfully.
  • Trolling and cyberstalking are NOT allowed and are grounds for account restriction or banishment. Trolling on this board includes posting controversial and often irrelevant or off-topic messages with the intention of (or anticipated result of) baiting other users into an emotional response or to generally disrupt normal, harmonious on-topic discussion, especially when a pattern of such posting is apparent.
  • Discussions about politics, weaponry and religion are permitted only in association with the topic of this forum and will be closed or removed if they become disruptive.
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Remember it is within a very narrow area that political discussion is allowed on CF; PLEASE choose your words with that in mind.
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:53   #70
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

The world has turned around with this natural gas it's going to be interesting seeing the conversions for piston engines develop. In Australia LPG has been widely used BUT then the fuel companies took note and bought the price up to match petrol btu for btu.

Diesel same story yet it cracks first... Whatever we will be screwed.......

Apologies major thread drift!
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:55   #71
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Did i miss something?
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Old 21-09-2012, 08:59   #72
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

Curious; would a discussion about whether the NWP should be considered an international straight, or Canadian property be considered political?

Personal opinion: Canadian property. The US will surely acquiese on this, since it is in national security interests. Plus, giving Canada ownership would induce them to maintain it.
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Old 21-09-2012, 09:48   #73
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

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Unfortunately, the Americans don't believe the science, and probably expect a melting glacier to reveal Jesus on a dinosaur
I am an American, I do believe the science, I don't believe I will ever see Jesus, I do believe that science (the same one that studies climate change) may deliver some semblance of a living dinosaur in my lifetime. Maybe that opinion came from the Daily Mail rather than actually knowing Americans?

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posting controversial and often irrelevant or off-topic messages with the intention of (or anticipated result of) baiting other users into an emotional response
is not my intention, I would like a genuine discussion so, within the bounds of this particular thread I request some leniency from the mods for the following.

There have been 70 some-odd posts on this thread, and none have addressed the 800-pound, politically incorrect and untouchable gorilla in the room, how many people there are contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. From my perspective per capita values are a terrible measure. I am egotistical enough to believe that my genetic line has as much (more!) right to continue to exist and contribute to the genome as any, so I think (because it suits my argument) we need to look at familial emissions rather than per capita.

If you trace my lineage back to 1900, the number of persons alive on this planet with my lineage has not changed. Similar results if you start in 1960 (actually, fewer of us than in 1960), where reliable per capita CO2 emissions data becomes available (CO2 Emissions Data). Since 1960, more people in my family have died than have been born.

For my family/my genome then, CO2 emissions have increased by about 12% since 1960 (as represented by the average American per capita emissions, the increase is directly relate-able since our population has not changed). In the same time the population of India has tripled and their per capita CO2 emissions have quintupled, and in China population has doubled and emissions quintupled. Not picking on those countries in particular, but their population increase has been largely natural, as opposed to immigration driven. Because of that, we can infer that per family CO2 emissions have increased 10 times in China and 15 times in India since 1960. With current ratings of India at 1.46 tonnes/per capita/per annum, China at 5.31, and the US at 17.96 then since 1960 China's emissions have essentially increased to be three times my US family's emissions, and India's have come in line with my US emissions per family line.

I am an American, I like my comfortable lifestyle. I bear responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, especially since I come from the most (by some measures) profligate society on the planet. For my part, I generate all my household electricity from solar, I ride my bicycle and public transit to work, I do not have or own an air conditioner, and I have not increased the population of this planet. Only once we start discussing all of the factors, instead of pointing at the Americans and blaming them, can we hope to achieve meaningful results.
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Old 21-09-2012, 11:37   #74
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

I doubt that I could be convinced that you personally have a larger entitlement to pollute based on the accidental circumstance of your birth. You may choose to be child free (as do I), but not to be born from a small family.

Go back far enough (and its not that far, really), and we're all the same family.
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Old 21-09-2012, 12:52   #75
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Re: First Sail Boat Through the McClure Straits

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but not to be born from a small family
I disagree. My birth was not an accident, while it was not my choice, it was the responsible choice of my parents, and theirs before them. Their decision was to maintain a standard of living that they enjoyed, and could not maintain by having a large family.

The western science and culture that many like to vilify for global warming is also the same science and culture that has led largely to increasing life spans and decreasing incidence of disease in the rest of the world. In most industrialized countries that also led to smaller family sizes (note that in many European countries the rate of natural increase is essentially zero, and in a few cases declining). In other places modern sanitation and medicine have not been followed (yet?) by the corresponding decrease in birth rates, resulting in an exponential increase in population. That profligate increase in population, combined with an increased standard of living, is just as responsible for warming as my large per capita, but consistent per family contribution.

I guess to put it in crude terms (just because I can't think of a polite way to say it), why is it that it is acceptable for others to "pollute" the world with population, but not OK for me to pollute with CO2?

That's not how I feel, 1. I don't consider people to be "pollution", and 2. I don't think it is OK for me to freely discharge greenhouse gases. However, it really gets my hackles up when someone says "you pollute too much per person", and my knee-jerk response is "you have too many people". I believe that the two go hand-in-hand, and you can't have a discussion about one without addressing the other. The argument that I need to trim my output so that others can freely reproduce at exponential rates and use up the difference at a lower per capita rate doesn't work for me.

It's actually pretty simple math. There is some level of total "acceptable" human generation of greenhouse gases (is it zero?). That level, divided by the number of people on the planet becomes the "acceptable" level per person. To get to the total "acceptable" amount you can either decrease the emissions per person or decrease the number of persons (or some combination thereof). I'm saying that my family (and those like ours) have been doing the first part. I personally am working on the second part, I can't speak for anyone else in that regard.
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