First Tunisia . . . Now Egypt ?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Therapy

How settled would it be if we just quit with the 1.3 billion?

LOL.... don't think its the $1.3billion thats the problem... its what Mubaracks using it for... himself and his cronies and not for the improvement of the people...
No one's interested in foriegn affairs so far... they just want a quality of life...

[capn_billl]

I just hope Egypt doesn't turn into another Iraq. So far the protestors don't seem to be as violent or destructive as other protests have been, that can change quickly though. My personal feel ing would be if I was already inroute to avoid landfall there until this is settled.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

..... I am so worried to see the current developments and knowing that all those going this season are now COMMITTED!
They will have left Maldives/Thailand/India etc weeks ago and be arriving in Oman in the next few weeks too late and too difficult to avert to South Africa........

Very good point Mark,

So, for those who have done the SE Asia to Suez run, if a cruiser was still say in India, .......what sailing alternatives at this time of year would you have, if you wanted to avoid the uncertainty of the Suez?

[TaoJones]

Folks, if you can focus your posts on the situation in Egypt as it pertains to cruising and sailing, then this thread is on topic. But when you leave out the cruising and sailing part, your observations no longer belong on this Forum. This will be the last reminder that posts must be on topic to stand - if they're not, they'll be removed and the thread will likely be closed.

Thanks, Pelagic, for your on topic post.

TaoJones

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Very good point Mark,

So, for those who have done the SE Asia to Suez run, if a cruiser was still say in India, .......what sailing alternatives at this time of year would you have, if you wanted to avoid the uncertainty of the Suez?

Run down the Chago's/Maldives and hang a right... to pass S of Madagascar before heading into SA.... or turn round...
I think the canal will stay open unless things turn nasty and it becomes a civil war..

[Pelagic]

That is what I thought to Boatman then considered the piracy issues on that route….geez!


From Fox news:

Oil prices spiked 4.3 percent Friday on fears that the Suez Canal might be closed. Roughly 3,500 oil tankers a year plus thousands of other cargo ships travel through the canal on their way from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. After the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, the canal was shut down for eight years. A closure today would add 6,000 miles to trips as ships detour around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Those trips would risk the threat of attack by Somali pirates.

[cringle]

something to do with this?
WHEAT (DAY) Jul'11 Chart | Grains Market | FutureSource.com

or this?
CORN Jul'11 Chart | Grains Market | FutureSource.com

because of the above, as well as
$USD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
$TNX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
and
$GOLD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
it's already kicking off in Europe - before Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan. For exactly the same reasons and as a logical extension, you can expect something similar in the US of A within a couple of years.

TaoJones.
I believe this has *everything* to do with cruising. An understanding of contemporary events and hence an appreciation of situations you may be headed into is fundamental to having a trouble free cruise and perhaps spreading some good will around.

jm2cw
C

[SabreKai]

According to one report I've read (cnn via zerohedge.com) they appear to be running out of food in Egypt. Or rather the locals are not able to get to the stores to get food because of all the kerfuffle.

As for the Suez, there are reports that the Bedouin plan on attacking the canal if Mubarak doesn't beat feet and leave. This according to an article in Time called The Army's OK with the Protesters, for Now dated Saturday the 29th.

Given that the Suez is a choke point for global traffic, (not to mention all the yachts that transit the canal) this could shut down the canal. Now add in the ease with which the canal can be blocked, I think that anyone heading to the area might want to change plans. All those coming from SE Asia to the Suez may want to stop in India and try to come up with another plan.

This unrest seems to be spreading like ripples in a pond. The Somalis are already out there pirating anything they can get their hands on for ransom. What if they got the bright idea to take a ship over, and force the crew to attempt to transit the canal and then ram it into one bank or the other while blowing holes in the bottom? Or capture on and turn it over to someone else who would be willing to do the deed. Some one else who decides that plugging up the Suez would make a nice point?

I think cruising anywhere in the area is about to become even more interesting than it was a month ago.


Sabre

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

LOL.... don't think its the $1.3billion thats the problem... its what Mubaracks using it for...

The United States has given Egypt an average of $2 billion annually since 1979, much of it military aid, according to the Congressional Research Service. The combined total makes Egypt the second largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel ...
... In 2010, $1.3 billion went to strengthen Egyptian armed forces, versus $250 million in economic aid. Another $1.9 million went for training meant to bolster long-term U.S.-Egyptian military cooperation. Egypt also receives hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of excess military hardware annually from the Pentagon ...

More ➥ Factbox: Most U.S. aid to Egypt goes to military | Reuters

And ➥ U.S. Aid to Egypt: The Current Situation and Future Prospects - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[PamlicoTraveler]

I am curious what is happening in the Suez now. Surely there are some CF members in the area now.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by PamlicoTraveler

I am curious what is happening in the Suez now ...

Ships are passing normally, and without delay, through the Suez Canal, even as protests in Egypt continue (Mon. Jan. 31).
However, there have been several reports of live fire in Suez, where the police headquarters have been taken over.
A labor strike, the most likely cause of canal disruption, may cause a temporary transit disruption through the canal. This wouldn’t be good news for Egyptians, as the food Egypt imports also comes through the canal.

[barnakiel]

Probably the current (read becoming ex) owner of Egypt oil did not want to co-op with some western govts (read sell them more oil) so they (read us) sponsored a little rebellion.

No way out, mate. We have burned 200 gallons of oil in our circumnav over 4 years. But do note that's what many cruisers burn over an average passage.

No way out, mate - we had no choice but to sponsor a rebellion.

b.

[Blue Stocking]

Anyone interested in going partners in a couple of ULCC and VLCCs

[GordMay]

Canada announced Sunday that it is airlifting its citizens from Egypt. There are some 6,500 Canadians in Egypt, and of these about 1,200 are registered with the Canadian Embassy. As many as 800 were expected to board planes today (Monday). The flights to Europe will continue as long as necessary.

Canadians in Egypt who want to leave are asked to phone Canada's embassy in Cairo at 20 2 2791 8700 or call collect to the Foreign Affairs emergency operations centre in Ottawa at 1-613-996-8885.
Relatives in Canada can contact the centre toll-free by dialling 1-800-606-5499, or by sending an email tosos@international.gc.ca

[Maren]

Originally Posted by atoll

i have not been closely watching the news,is there a fundamentalist aspect to this stuff or is it just regime/poverty/recession induced?

If you don't mind, I'd like to make a distinction between fundamentalist and extremist. I don't particularly see a problem with fundamentalism, per se. Amish are fundamentalist but not extremist. Similar examples can be found elsewhere. So, if the uprising was in part caused by, is supported by or will primarily benefit fundamentalists, I don't see this as a problem -- unless they are extremist. That said, I think the BBC and NPR have pretty decent coverage on how this has pretty strong economic roots.

Finally, I got a call from a friend of mine early this morning. He's in the Gulf of Suez and heading North. No troubles as far as he knows.