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Old 29-01-2011, 17:13   #16
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The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report
The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report | STRATFOR
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Old 29-01-2011, 17:26   #17
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A couple of points...

I'd like to see this thread continue. The places of concern are destinations of interest to many cruisers, so highly relevent here.

Anjou. The world can do nothing when hotheads get out of hand. In the 50s and again in 1967 the Suez Canal was clogged with sunken ships and took years to re-open. It actually gave birth to the super tanker.

Atoll. You remember 1952? And I thought I was the only grizzley old ex S.African around here. I'll have to show you a little more respect!
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Old 29-01-2011, 17:32   #18
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There is more to these demonstrations than meets the eye. The media will focus on the concept of reformers staging a revolution in the name of democracy and human rights. These may well have brought numerous demonstrators into the streets, but revolutions, including this one, are made up of many more actors than the liberal voices on Facebook and Twitter.
After three decades of Mubarak rule, a window of opportunity has opened for various political forces — from the moderate to the extreme — that preferred to keep the spotlight on the liberal face of the demonstrations while they maneuver from behind. As the


Read more: The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report | STRATFOR


thanks gordmay this was my gut feeling,too much of a coincidence that tunisia,egypt,albania, and now turkey who have just released a very contraversial tv series that will ignite common people in the region.

there is definitely more than meets the eye going on,me smells a rat...............
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Old 29-01-2011, 17:39   #19
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Alternatively having a good explanation as to why "you" having paid money (via your Govt) to kill "his" freinds and relatives makes you an innocent bystander...........
My admittedly limited but first hand experience has been to agree yes my govt has done stupid things I don't want it to do but President XXXXXXX doesn't call me and ask my advice. Does your President call and ask you about XXXXX ? (insert what ever maltreatment he is getting from his own govt) I was taught this by one who traveled extensively for many years and darned if he wasn't correct!
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Old 29-01-2011, 18:43   #20
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Whatever the cause for discontent and the riots be sure the fundamentalists will do everything possible to gain control now or later. I believe every recent overthrough of a government in that area has resulted in a fundamentalist government taking over. I am not counting Tunisia (work in progress)
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Old 29-01-2011, 18:52   #21
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Sorry Tao, but you cant keep the "them v us", out of it, because that is precisely what the problem is.
The "them" want all the good things the "us" have.
The people who run these troubled countries are already in the "us" category, and maintain their position by depriving the "them" of any possibility of improvement.
So you overthrow the government.
I am in no danger of being injured in Egypt, because I will not go there.
Not cowardice-- just common sense.
I learned a long time ago that good luck is usually the result of advanced planning.
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Old 29-01-2011, 18:53   #22
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One always hopes that a populist uprising will result in a reasonably democratic system that is responsive to the needs of its people-- which the current Egyptian regime has not been.

But it so rarely happens that way. Case in point: Iran, where the conservative Islamists used the fall of the Shah to grab power and where now, ironically, they have been forced to rig elections and repress dissent to stay in power.

Once the populace has cell phones and the Internet, it's much more difficult to hoodwink them, because the state no longer controls the media. George Orwell was wrong in that respect.

I expect the Egyptian army to come in and install a "caretaker" government headed by a general. After that, who knows?
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Old 29-01-2011, 18:56   #23
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My understanding is Egypt has a relatively youthful population (60% under 30), a strong military, very high unemployment, inadequate supply of basic goods for all, and the Tunisian uprising for a morale booster. I for one wish them all the luck and positive outcome to their endevours. My heart goes out to theirs.
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Old 29-01-2011, 19:09   #24
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Maybe those transiting will not be bothered by so many demanding baksheesh if those are out protesting.
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Old 31-01-2011, 07:36   #25
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Egypt crisis & Tunisia

Well, if I thought last year up the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea wasn't my cup of tea I am so worried to see the current developments and knowing that all those going this season are now COMMITTED!
They will have left Maldives/Thailand/India etc weeks ago and be arriving in Oman in the next few weeks too late and too difficult to avert to South Africa.

I'd be very interested for anyone in Egypt now to tell us what the situation is for cruisers.


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Old 31-01-2011, 08:16   #26
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Guys lets keep talk about "fundementalists " etc out of the debate, The OP was asking about what its really like on the ground.

Dave
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Old 31-01-2011, 08:45   #27
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Guys lets keep talk about "fundementalists " etc out of the debate, The OP was asking about what its really like on the ground.

Dave
My surgeon (I had surgery last weekend) is Egyptian. This weekend he brought two of his three kids sailing on the beach. He was saying today that the third is stuck in Cairo, unable to get on the flight she was booked onto, because all the foreigners are surging forwards for tickets to get out, flights are delayed, everyone being deferred etc etc. Sounds like absolute chaos... a bit like European airports this winter just past!
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Old 31-01-2011, 09:10   #28
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Think its a poor vs rich thing... 30yrs of repression and secret police... low wages and high prices... judges, doctors, actors, pop stars are all in the square calling for Mubarack to go...
Only anti-western feeling I can see is for the people propping up Mubarack... $1.3billion from the US, EU funding.... and if the west can keep its nose out and not interfere it should all settle down... Egypt's not a fundamentalist society and even the Islamic party is a moderate party... currently holding 20% after the dodgey elections a coupla months back...
Just saw Blair spouting on TV... hope he stays out of it... the guys an Idiot.... and dangerous to boot... he talks to god..
Most of Al-Jazeera's equipments been seized after half a dozen of their reporters were arrested...
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Old 31-01-2011, 09:19   #29
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$1.3billion from the US, EU funding.... and if the west can keep its nose out and not interfere it should all settle down...
...
How settled would it be if we just quit with the 1.3 billion?
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Old 31-01-2011, 09:26   #30
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If you are interested in the developments in the Middle East may I recommend to you Al Jazeera. It is the best and often the only objective news source for that part of the world. It can be read online along with the New York Times and the London Guardian. If you are among the 95% of Americans that get their news from TV and have not read a book this week, you are doomed to ignorance and worse.
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