Who Ordered the Frikkin Cyclone?!

[S/V Willow]

Mark and Nicolle - We think we know where you are- we anchored there for several days and it is a good spot. You sound well prepared and that does bring luck if not peace of mind.

Oh and 'maxingout' there is nowhere to get off in this area. If you did get off and go ashore it is heavily treed and the danger would be far greater. It is also very steep and rugged in places so at this juncture they are doing the right thing.

M and N good luck, our thoughts are with you and we look forward to hearing from you in the very near future with some great stories to tell. Ray and Fiona.

[MarkJ]

Well its just been reclassified Catagory 5 and it is passing 65 nms to the east of us.

The wind is already up. the system is a biggy.

Stuff me! Anyway I'll go say something positive to Nicolle and post this before she sees it.

Mark

[bayview]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Nara and Macona aren't really ideal cyclone holes. They are both pretty open to the south/southwest.

Mark is in one of the more recognised hideouts.

Mark are you right up among the mangroves? The present calm would be the time to get the sails off the spars/furlers, and stowed away, and get the boat tied on to some mangroves.

Ok , you mean Gulnare Inlet. It looks like it may brush past. Further south might wear it. I wonder how warm the water is around fraser island?

[Hud3]

Very serious situation--too damn close! Here's the latest from the US Navy as of 0300 UTC, 7 March, and a graphic from wunderground.com.


subj/tropical cyclone 18p (hamish) warning nr 004//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 18p (hamish) warning nr 04
01 active tropical cyclone in southpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
---
warning position:
070000z --- near 17.1s 148.2e
movement past six hours - 150 degrees at 09 kts
position accurate to within 020 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
060 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant

---
remarks:
070300z position near 17.5s 148.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 18p (hamish), located approximately 140 nm east
of Cairns, Australia has tracked south-southeastward at 10 knots over
the past 06 hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates that
the system has maintained its organization with brief periods having
a cloud filled eye. Based on radar, the eye diameter has decreased in
size to 15 nm. There is high confidence in the current position and
motion based on the well-defined eye evident on the Bowen radar
imagery. Tc 18p passed over Holmes reef near 05/20z with maximum
sustained surface winds reported at 77 knots and minimum slp of 960.9
mb. Tc 18p has moderate intensification over the past 12 hours. The
current intensity is based on observations reported at Holmes reef
and flinders reef. Dvorak estimates of 115 knots from pgtw appear to
be slightly higher than observations are indicating. Animated water
vapor imagery continues to indicate radial outflow with strong
poleward outflow enhanced by midlatitude westerlies south of the
system. The system is located within a favorable environment with
weak vertical wind shear, warm SST > 28c and deep moisture. Tc 18p
is forecast to track south-southeastward under the steering
influence of the mid-level subtropical ridge positioned east of the
system. The available dynamic aids are in good agreement with this
track. Tc 18p should continue to intensify through tau 24 but is
expected to weaken slightly at tau 36 due to increasing vertical
wind shear and interaction with land. Maximum significant wave
height at 070000z is 17 feet. Next warnings at 071500z and 080300z.//

[cat man do]

Weather observations (wind and rain) by clickable map for the area

Queensland Weather Observation Stations

So
Latest Weather Observations Hamilton Island closest to Mark 15 klm South

Latest Weather Observations Marion Reef 370 klm North East

Latest Weather Observations Flinders Reef 300klm North West

Latest Weather Observations Creal Reef 150klm South East

Latest Weather Observations Middle Percy Island about 200klm South East


pics from during the day looks like the spinney stuff is easing somewhat, visually anyway
512 km composite Mackay Radar Loop

Pics taken at 4-00pm and now

[Morgan Paul]

Good luck Mark and Nicolle.
I hope the worst of it hits you during daylight. Man that must be scary.

Paul

[chala]

Hello Mark I feel that you will be fine.

It is time to establish lines on deck that you can follow and hold to in the dark, if you have not already done so.
When you run your engine keep watch on the cooling water. If the boat rolls a lot air may enter the cooling system and the engine may overheat.
Try to relate to your compass. If every thing packs up the compass will still work.
Make sure nothing is air tight on the boat, because if you are hit by a sudden low pressure things will pop open due to the difference in pressure.
Be aware of flying debris and be ready to duck or hide behind some thing solid.
You may lose communication with land because land communication may get destroyed and it will take time before they are repaired.
Wear protective clothing and good footwear, protect your head.
You and Nicolle will make it.

[MarkJ]

We took everyones advice and set the second anchor.

Yes, we are in Gulnare Inlet as suggested a few weeks ago by 44'cruisingcat in a thread where I was asking about cyclone holes here. Its just 3nms from Hamilton Island Marina. HamiltonIsland forms part of the blocking ring that makes this inlet good. Below I have a graphic of what Hamilton has been getting but we have only had 3 second 30kt wind gusts. Its perfectly flat in here.

Its just gone low tide so the entrance is very shallow at the moment about 1 meter. My hole is about 4 meters deep. The incoming tide will put 2 m on top of that.

As the wind clocks around it will come in through the entrance but that shouldn't be till the southerly has a little bit of west in it, which puts us nicely in the south western quadrant and soon out of it

My big worry is dragging on a south easterly as its a rocky shore, but as soon as its fully south and any west its all mangroves - a soft landing.

The latest plot - 2am - shows iit will be closest at 68nms. Thats pretty good as it should give us only 48kts but I note Hud's 34 kts. Thats would be better.

So provided it doesn't head in, we seem to be in a good location. I am ready to have a few hours at the wheel to combat the incoming tide and wind. My bearings to the other boats here show I'm not dragging (so do the 2 x gps!)

There are about 10 boats here mostly local boats who know their stuff.

Originally Posted by Hud3

radius of 034 kt winds - 060 nm southwest quadrant

I'll take that! We are 68 nms from the track

Originally Posted by Morgan Paul

Good luck Mark and Nicolle.
I hope the worst of it hits you during daylight. Man that must be scary.

Paul

Aye. Taint a nice feeling but its a challange sent to us to see if we are worthy to live this life, I spose.

Originally Posted by chala

Wear protective clothing and good footwear, protect your head.
You and Nicolle will make it.

Thanks Chala.

We are kitted out just the same for an ocean storm: foulies, life lines, deck shoes.

Its weird to be on the internet while this is happening! The guy on VHF16 is going the reports once per hour but they are nothing like being able to download the charts, graphics and the tech data! Oh, and being able to post on here!

I am glad to be here... I wouldn't like to be at sea in this and I wouldn't like to be in another location. Just hope my kit holds and we can do ourselves justice


Mark

[Hud3]

This was updated a little over an hour ago...


SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005
WTPS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 149.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.7S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.4S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.8S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 149.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.

[MarkJ]

Thanks Hud. Your mob is quicker than ours!

[MarkJ]

Barometer going up!
Observations for Hamilton Island

08/05:00am

1000.5

-

08/04:04am

1000.1

-

08/04:00am

1000.1

-

08/03:00am

1000.5

08/02:00am

1001.1

-

A bit early to tell yet but we may already be at the side of the cyclone.
Attached GIF below shows how I conect the circles to get an idea what wind zone we are in graphicaly - and if its beter or worse than last one.
The Yellowish line is the line from us to the latest plot. You can see we are clearly in the outside wind zone and you can see we are already well into the South West Quadrant and will soon be in the North West Quadrant (Navigatable Semi-circle)

One last nice bit of info is that Hamilton Island wind has been steady 40kts gusting 50kts from 11pm to 5am NOT increasing!

So there are some nice things.

In our own spot the weather in the last 2 hours has deteriated wih stronger and longer gusts but I think mainly 20 to 25 kts. I sure haven't needed to be starting the engne yet.

All in all I'm happier than anywhere more directly in the path. I wouldn't like to be someone at sea.


PS VHF16 has been quiet for emergencies. Not one going one. But they did say some boats have pulled off their moorings on the coast.

Fingers crossed.

Mark

[Hud3]

Mark,

Looks to me like it will be due east of you in 4-5 hours. What's the wind direction there now?

Gulnare Inlet looks like a pretty snug place to be! I think the entrance opens to the SW, right? I suspect that the wind should be clocking around to the SW soon, if not already.

Hang in there!

[44'cruisingcat]

This is not looking real good for us right now. It's heading straight for us.

[seacap]

44 where are you?? I have ridden out 3 direct hits on board in St. Thomas including a force 4. Proper gear and a good hole make the difference. My pryers are with you.

MarkJ...isn't it nice having a barometer?

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by Hud3

Mark,

Looks to me like it will be due east of you in 4-5 hours. What's the wind direction there now?

Gulnare Inlet looks like a pretty snug place to be! I think the entrance opens to the SW, right? I suspect that the wind should be clocking around to the SW soon, if not already.

Yes its SW now but coming straight down the bay making a few ripples but not enough to pull up an anchor.

This is the strongest breeze we have had. Before this we were virtually totally protected although we could hear the wind in the trees high on the hills.

It should clock around soon enough so we get a protected bay again

There are 8 boats here but we are the only deep keeler, 2 cats, 1 houseboat, 2 x 30 footer and 2 pearling luggers.

Could fit some more, but theres not much space where its deep enough not to worry.

Mark