US to Australia in One Year Starting February 2012

[dennisail]

This thread is all about options. There is no correct answer. Does anyone know of a website where I can track previous Cyclones by year and month?

The best I can find its this, but it only works by year and is out of date. Tropical Cyclone Information for the Australian Region

In the 10 years leading up to 2006 there were only 5 Cyclones between New Cal and Brisbane. I would like to know the months they occurred. The BOM states cyclones in Nov are very rare. What ocean pattern do we have at the moment regarding E lnino, la ninia? The BOM states a large increase in cyclones during la ninia.

I would still love to go to NZ. It really is a place we would like to go. The best thing is we can have our little dog sent to us in NZ (which has proven way to difficult to take on this whole cruise due to quarantine reasons)

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by dennisail

Croatia has some great deals, but it is too far for me. I don't have the time.

You got de money...?
I got the time...

[savoir]

Fully itemized cyclone history here.

Tropical Cyclone Cyclones Tracking Maps Hamish Larry Tracy Australian Australia Region South Pacific and South Indian Oceans including typhoons and hurricanes

[Jamel]

Originally Posted by savoir

Fully itemized cyclone history here.

Tropical Cyclone Cyclones Tracking Maps Hamish Larry Tracy Australian Australia Region South Pacific and South Indian Oceans including typhoons and hurricanes

Excellent work Savior, best info I can give is be OUT of cyclone areas in the cyclone season! No one knows where the next will form and affect, past records are just that, data!

Be in Aus by October latest, and move south...period!! Save yourself the stress and potential danger.

I had one follow me all the way down to Bunbury this year, not nice!

[savoir]

You can also stay in the far North of Queensland. Nothing is guaranteed up there but the percentages are better. If it was my call I would stay in the Solomons but dennisail has deadlines in Oz.

[dennisail]

Thanks good link. Looks the waters heading to NZ are not exactly safe from cyclones.

South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Season 2010 - 2011 Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes Typhoons Operational Data

After more of a review, it seems cyclones in Nov are very rare, and if they happen its very late in Nov. Cyclones between NZ and AU are also fairly rare until Jan.

[savoir]

Nothing is guaranteed. The advantage of wandering down the coast is that you are never too far from a port and have easy access to good weather reports. Just a cheap transistor radio will do. If you spend time in that area you learn to tune your SSB to radio Australia for weather reports. If you don't have SSB you can also pick up radio Australia on medium wave which has a range of 500 miles or so.

[Jim Cate]

G'Day all,

Lots of stuff to consider here... I will try to hit some of the queries.

Sailing to NZ from any of the usual tropical islands -- I haven't used the pilot charts in a long time, for they seemed never to reflect the conditions that I experienced. But I am surprised that they don't mention that the Tasman is affected by frontal passages on a roughly weekly schedule. These vary in intensity, and tend to be milder north of ~28 S. They will typically be preceded by SE backing around through N and NW and followed by a period of SW. Duration and strength of the winds varies, but gale force is common and storm force not unknown. This pattern prevails in the winter months, and certainly continues into November. So, imagine my surprise to hear that the Pilots predict force 4 from favorable directions! Were it only so...

The official start of the cyclone season is 1 November, and many seem to feel that they must be in NZ or Oz in early October. There is always a mass exodus from Vanuatu and NC in that month. The "Port to Port" rally leaves in late October if that sort of madness appeals. But, Ann and I rarely leave before mid to late November, and have stayed as late as early December. In general, the early cyclones don't impinge upon the route between NC/VAnuatu and mid to southern Qld. On the other hand, a few years ago cyclone Xavier popped up in the mid Coral Sea in mid October, and was tracking directly towards Luganville where we were. Wasn't predicted... big surprise, resulting in a fairly unpleasant beat in 35-45 knots to get to Port Sandwich (our choice of cyclone anchorages in Vanuatu). So, there is always an element of chance in making one's plans. I would not presume to advise anyone on the best solution to the riddle.

But, going from the Sollies to Qld in December seems quite risky to me. While few full blown cyclones develop on that route in that month, there are usually a series of lows that do form... often quite a few of them... and while not devastating, they would make for a very uncomfortable passage. Further, by December the seasonal NE winds that sometimes blow along the north and central Qld coast are gone, leaving the persistent SE trades along the route south. While one certainly can make that trip, it isn't easy beating into 20-30 knots every day. Most "cruisers" motor the whole way down the coast, at least as far as Gladstone.

Oh, as to leaving your boat in north Qld: Not many places to do that safely. Cairns would be the northernmost spot, and there the marinas (at least the major one, Marlin marina) requires that if a cyclone comes along, all the boats evacuate to the mangroves. There is a well developed cyclone plan, but the evacuation requires someone to move the boat and secure it. Hard to do by remote control! Gladstone is a possibility... better protected marina and no mandatory evacuation. We've left our boats there untended, albeit nervously. Bundaberg is a popular boat abandonment location, but IMO an unsafe one. The Bundaberg Port Marina is very exposed, both to storm seas/wind and the more devastating flooding. A lot of boats on the Burnett river were lost/damaged during last years cyclone/rain depressions.
By the time you get as far south as Moreton Bay things get a lot safer, and there are a number of nice marinas that would love to have you leave your boat with them.

As to your route to the Coral sea area -- so many islands, so little time!
We enjoyed both the Marquesas and the Tuamotus both times we traversed the area, and of course the Societies are beautiful, if a bit crowded and touristy. We only visited Raratonga in the Cooks... interesting, but a very poor anchorage for yachts. Niue is a great stop, weather permitting... and so on. I guess my overall advice would be to spend the greatest part of your discretionary time in the eastern part of the route, since it is easy to get back to NC, VAnuatu and even Fiji in a single season cruise from Oz.
Leaving your boat in NZ after a summer cruising there would be a good move, too.

Finally, a good source for wx info is to subscribe to Bob McDavitt's free "Weathergram" via his website (sorry, no link available right now). Bob is a met officer in NZ and has been offering this service for years. He also does wx routing for a fee as well, but the free bit is very useful for the route you will likely be travelling.


This has been a bit rambling, hasn't it? But, until you determine your starting point, it is all a bit moot, isn't it?

Anyway, hang in there and good luck searching, wherever you end up.

Cheers,

Jim

[downunder]

Jim Cates comments are excellent. ""

"The official start of the cyclone season is 1 November, and many seem to feel that they must be in NZ or Oz in early October. There is always a mass exodus from Vanuatu and NC in that month. The "Port to Port" rally leaves in late October if that sort of madness appeals. But, Ann and I rarely leave before mid to late November, and have stayed as late as early December."

As someone who lives in NQ i think you are safe coming across the Coral sea in November and I would not be too concerned in the 1st week or two of December if delayed.

Apart from Cairns, Townsville and Mackay as well as brisbane are entry ports.

We still get Northerlies and glassy conditions through Dec and often into jan.

The vessels who left Hinchenbrook marina for the mangroves of hinchenbrook Channel survived the Cat 5 cyclone last year well. There were even charter vessels from Cairns sheltering there. Just don't leave your vessel in the northern marinas in a cyclone get into the mangroves or south of Bundaberg. Gladstone also has good cyclone anchorages.

[donradcliffe]

A synopsis of our 97 trip, which is a pretty typical milk run except for the long stop in Penrhyn, one of our favorite places:

Depart Panama 15 April, arrive Galapagos 22 April
Depart Galapagos 28 April, arrive Nuka Hiva 16 May
Depart Marquesas 25 May, arrive Tuamotus 30 May
Depart Tuamotus 20 June, arrive Societies 22 June
Depart Societies 22 July, arrive Penhyrn 29 July
Depart Penhyrn 23 August, arrive Pago Pago 28 August
Depart Pagp Pago 10 September, arrive Tonga 13 September
Depart Tonga 23 September, arrive Fiji 25 September
Depart Fiji 3 November, arrive New Caledonia 7 November
Depart New Cal 9 November, arrive Brisbane 14 November.

This was an El Nino year, and an early cyclone in Fiji made us put the hammer down and head for Brisbane. We had time to stop and enjoy the French Polynesia and the the Cooks.
We also departed Gizo 20 October 1998 for Townsville, Vanuatu for Gladstone on 30 October 1999, and again for Brisbane on 7 October 2000, all without problems.

We have done the Tonga-NZ trip once, when the high stalled and gave us winds behind the beam the whole way, but that was very unusual. The passage from the islands to OZ doesn't take long and is much nicer than the one to NZ. Its less than 2 weeks of sailing from Tonga and you can pick your destination to avoid bad weather fronts, then go down the OZ coast at your leisure.

We could have left 6 weeks earlier in 1997, but would have missed Carnival in Trinidad. If you bought our boat in San Diego or Mexico in February, you could easily be in the Marquesas by early April.

[SurferShane]

Originally Posted by dennisail

Sounds very expensive. I would actually like to sail to NZ. I'm not scared of rough weather, as long as I am confident in my boat.

I would be more than happy to crew back from NZ especially if you are dropping into Lord Howe. I would appreciate the serious passage experience and the trip is well within my budget.

[dennisail]

Thanks for the lengthy reply Jim. Very helpful as usual mate. I think I found Bob McDavitts site. I will have to take a good look. MetService Blog | Meteorological Service of New Zealand Edit, seems he writes for MSNZ

Don, that must have been a great cruise. I googled Penrhyn and it looks like a place I would love too. Seems this is very doable in my time frame. But I don't have to be home until January. NZ sounds like a pretty hard slog from what I have been reading. Hmm.

Shane. If we go I will keep that in mind mate.

[dennisail]

This is all happening now. Long Beach CA to Brisbane. We will be in longbeach in one week. A few weeks to prepare and test the boat and we will be heading to the Marquesas.

[Surfer Girl]

Dennis,

I haven't been on this forum for quite a while but I am very pleased to read your post! Good on you mate and have a great trip to Oz...

Just a little primer - remember, it won't be all Pina Coladas and idyllic anchorages! There will be some tough moments that will test your resolve but that is cruising and actually what makes it all worth while in the end.

On another note, I have talked my wife into going again! We are planning to start from the Med this time and then home over a couple of years. Prices are even better (cheaper) for yachts in the Med than last year - weaker Euro & ongoing GFC.

Please post up some photos of your yacht...

[dennisail]

Hey mate. There is a thread here.

http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...5-a-70492.html