Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015

[pbmaise]

Latest forecast shows now In-fa will head almost due North after passing Guam.

That is 4 days away.

Philippines for now in the clear.

The maximum expected winds have been downgraded just slightly.

So will another typhoon finish the season and cross the Philippines?
We will have to wait and see.

[mr336]

Love the delivery. . .and the info. You should be on the weather channel.

Cheers

[pbmaise]

Hold on here.....something is not quite right.

In-fa has reminded us that all these super computers and models are just talk. Martijn from Germany in a big cat near me agreed with my prior statements that it will not track as far North as they say.

This afternoon winds are back on-line for building to 120 mph and suddenly the turn North isnt as clear.

Well hello people did you check the forecast for Taipei and crunch that in your model?? There is a 5 C drop in temperature forecasted for 11/25/2016

That sounds like a cold front to me.

I want to republish the Guam Typhoon Center page. I find the JTWC page wont load many times as if the site is down or over-loaded. It isnt fun not getting feed from JTWC when there is something big.

Here it is:
National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Tropical Cyclone Web Page

Note: Typhoon Tip exploded after going past Guam. Forecast now shows nearly 2 full days at 120 mph winds and no increase. If that Taipei forecast means cold front this may still grow bigger.

[GordMay]

The press, in the Marianas, seem to have noticed.

➥ Marianas Variety - Typhoon In-Fa heads toward Marianas

➥ Tropical Storm In-Fa expected to regain typhoon strength

And the specialist sites:

➥ Tropical Storm In-fa to Threaten Guam Saturday

➥ http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoo...estern-pacific

➥ NASA sees In-fa become a Typhoon near Micronesia

[pbmaise]

Last night winds in Puerto Princesa Bay did not shift from the mountains and come down and head East.
Instead strong winds from the East were headed West and indicated something was odd.

Nothing in Guam or JTWC indicated why.

This morning I searched this site:

PAGASA-DOST

Let the page load completely. Then in the tool box select Satellite MTSAT IR

Zoom out and see what is in the South China Sea off Borneo.
Two massive thunderstroms developed. One is almost as intense and as large as the typhoon.

It is this thundertrom that created a low pressure West of Borneo and was drawing air from the Philippines to the Southwest.

Today winds are pretty strong from the North.

If that system near Borneo begins to spin, all bets are off for In-fa's forecast.

Nothing at Guam or JTWC yet will have told you about the system near Borneo.

[pbmaise]

I admit I cannot find decent weather maps for the Philippines which show me fronts. I would be more comfortable seeing what it is that is acting like a brick wall that is preventing this typhoon from continuing Westward.

All forecasts still show it turning to the North.

Both In-fa and I are at 10 Degrees North, and where I am, I physically do not see clouds going East. In fact overhead they are headed West.

Unless something big happens in the South China Sea tonight, the Philippines is in the clear this time. Maximum winds are now forecast at 140 MPH.

The Philippine website is just as slow on the Internet as it is on my phone, or, so many people are trying to view it that it is overloaded like JTWC.

[pbmaise]

I found a surface wind map showing that this should keep going right into the Philippines.
Yet something higher up not showing on weather maps in the upper atmosphere must act as the brick wall. If the typhoon was at the surface level it would roll right into the Philippines. Where is the weather map that shows this brick wall. The NOAA website doesn't cover this low in the Pacific.

This is a great site but doesn't cover down by the Philippines
Ocean Prediction Center

These Philippine wind charts came from this site

Philippines Weather Map

[pbmaise]

I am struggling to find weather maps showing me why In-fa will turn North.

It occurs to me that looking at In-fa there are many strong storm cells in an outer band to the North. With Haiyan (Yolanda) storm cells were to the West. My thought is it is these localized lows that are steering the typhoon. In-fa is creating its own low pressure system.

Winds right now on Guam are gusting to 44 mph at Anderson Airforce Base. Pressure at the base is lower than pressure at stations in the Philippines.

So I conclude watching overall typhoon shape and where the storm cells are is important.

[pbmaise]

Can we say someone screwed up???
This typhoon was supposed to be no more than 85 knots.

The forecast is
24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 14.2N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KTThose speeds translate to sustained winds 244 km/h and gusts to 300 km/h.

If this beast turns, it will be largely forgotten since it didn't land on anything. However, had it landed on Guam winds are just as strong now as Paka.

Well guess what, I was right to follow this one.

[pbmaise]

Track showing it headed North. Sure hope they are right about that or someone will be in bigger trouble then guessing this would only be 85 knots when it turns out to be far far stronger. Remember force from wind is