Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 23-05-2017, 04:46   #1
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

There appears to be a typhoon forming right now south east of Chuuk FSM.

No don't bother looking at the joint typhoon warning center. They don't even classify this as a suspect area with low probability yet.

There are two better websites for you to consult for long term forecasting.

Firstly make sure you have installed the app Windy on your Android phone. They have updated their website address to

http://windy.com

You can use their website directly or use the app. Using the app tonight I was able to see that there is a LLCC. Low level circulating center SE of Chuuk.

I was then able to examine the clouds in the area and determine roughly how much water is in the atmosphere. I consulted the Japanese Meteorological Association JMA website. Unlike the JTWC which only publishes one or two updates of satellite images per day, JMA updates their satellite information several times per hour.

Website: JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

The link above will take you to Pacific Islands number one. From this satellite view you can observe typhoons all the way out to Chuuk and Marshall Islands.

As a typhoon approaches the Philippines switch the view Southeast Asia number two.

Using Windy and JMA you can identify likely typhoons sometimes up to three days before the JTWC issues an alert.

After a typhoon has been identified by the JTWC they will publish a typhoon track.

Important: Just because the JTWC has not issued a warning yet doesn't mean boo. Unfortunately, JTWC seems geared to inform us only what may develop within next 24 hours.

JTWC website: https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/#_4...%2Fcoop.jsp%3F

PS My best guess is this will likely develop into a super typhoon with winds near 150 knots. In 2015 there were two super typhoons in May including one that impacted Luzon.
__________________

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2017, 02:51   #2
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

There is now an LLCC just SE of Palau. Have a look on Windy.com
__________________

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2017, 17:13   #3
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

The LLCC that was SE of Palau moved up NW of Palau now, however look also at the link I provided for JMA. Notice that there is mostly clear skies in this area. Therefore, while it is an LLCC it is not likely to develop into anything.

The same is not true SE of Chuck. Notice on Windy.com that there is a broad LLCC that is not yet clearly defined.

Now look SE of Chuck on JMA. There is a huge mass of clouds in this area.

As the Southern monsoons set in, there is a greater and greater flow of air from the South that hits the Westerly Tadewinds at a 90 degree angle. PNG creates a wind block which helps prevents the Northernly flow and allows a counter Tradewinds flow to the East.

This is the idea combination to begin spawning typhoons.

I know many of you already know all this. I am just trying to help prevent those who venture into our area without the background we have gained from watching these storms for years.
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2017, 18:31   #4
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,603
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Thanks pbmaise, that time of year to change your opening web page to a Typhoon tracker
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2017, 22:01   #5
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

I downloaded images to help you see what I am looking at. Palegic thanks for the link to the typhoon tracker. The point I am trying to make is to get people to look farther into the future before things become typhoons.

The first image you can see is of Windy.com I have circled three areas of possible trouble. I have used arrows to indicate wind directions.

The second image is from the JMA satellite. Notice the huge storm cells associated with the two yellow circles. There is a chance one or both of these will turn into a typhoon.

Again we are looking well before any hint from JTWC that there is a possible problem.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Typhoons 1.jpg
Views:	58
Size:	224.4 KB
ID:	149344   Click image for larger version

Name:	Typhoons 2.jpg
Views:	54
Size:	117.5 KB
ID:	149345  

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-06-2017, 23:01   #6
Senior Cruiser
 
44'cruisingcat's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 7,371
Images: 69
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post


PS My best guess is this will likely develop into a super typhoon with winds near 150 knots. In 2015 there were two super typhoons in May including one that impacted Luzon.
Won't be in May this year.
__________________
44'cruisingcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2017, 00:21   #7
Registered User
 
hafa's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 258
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Typhoon tracking for previous years

May is done; June seldom sees typhoons, but there's little wind to speak of for the month, so it's a lousy time to make a passage through Micronesia. We restrict longer voyages to April and May; much more pleasant time of year here.

The NOAA Area Forecast Discussion has the most relevant data in regards to analysis of potential cyclone formation; IR-visible masses of clouds or even low-pressure circulation does not necessarily translate into potential typhoon formation.
__________________
hafa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 03:02   #8
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

If you have been looking at Windy.com, you would have seen the LLCC that was near Palau has tracked thru the Philippines and exited South of Mindoro.

I want to stress that just because something hasn't amounted to much in The Philippines doesn't mean it can't cause problems.

I highly object to how the JTWC organizes data and today is a good example of this problem.

Anyone doing a casual look at JTWC would conclude there is no problem.

Their entry page reads: "
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere"

However, if you click on
ABPW10 Text

You can read

"THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 100131Z AMSU-B METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH. A 091300Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH SOME 15 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C). THERE IS ALSO HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT DO NOT AGREE AS TO WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

Why is this so important?

Answer: Possible loss of sv Europa"?
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 15:33   #9
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Overnight, the LLCC has gone from a medium chance within 24 hours to a typhoon formation alert. This is finally posted and easy to see on JTWC.

This is the same LLCC which was first observed in post 2 of this thread over 5 days ago.

Not every LLCC you first see on Windy.com will result in a typhoon. However, overly cautious during typhoon season is best.

Here is the formation alert.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 119.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. A 101029Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH INCREASINGLY SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES C). THERE ARE HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 15:38   #10
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelagic View Post
Thanks pbmaise, that time of year to change your opening web page to a Typhoon tracker
:: Typhoon2000.comŽ :: The Philippines' First Website on Tropical Cyclones (Since 1997)
Pelagic,

I checked the link you suggested this morning.

Despite the facts

1. This LLCC was clearly present 5 days ago,
2. It has marched right thru the Philippines,
3. It is still very close to the Philippines,
4. It has already advanced to a full bore typhoon alert.

Anyone looking at the link you suggested would read:

"Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western Pacific Ocean, the Philippine Sea, and the South China Sea is not expected through Monday, June 12, 2017."

Not exactly accurate is it?

also,

Hafa. That link also indicated nothing about this formation. However, it is out of their jurisdiction.
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 18:20   #11
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,603
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

I don't quite understand your point...There is no "ACTIVE" TRS in those areas described.

Just minor depressions with some much needed rain.

The local depression now East of LA Union at about 34knots is not a Typhoon and doubtful that it will grow into one
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 20:31   #12
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 559
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Pelagic,

My point is Typhoon tracker still reports nothing of concern.

Whereas JTWC has upgraded this into an

ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE

It is no longer a formation alert it is something that any sailboater and cruising yacht should be full aware of.

Yet that Typhoon Tracker website still makes it seem all is clear till Monday.
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 21:12   #13
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,603
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

At what wind speed does it become an active tropical cyclone according to JTWC?
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 22:28   #14
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Alaska/Portugal
Boat: Custom 55
Posts: 619
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelagic View Post
At what wind speed does it become an active tropical cyclone according to JTWC?
34 knots, I believe.
__________________
TJ, Jenny, and Baxter
svrocketscience.com
TJ D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2017, 22:46   #15
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,603
Re: Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

Hi TJD, I think this is where confusion begins as 34knot is a tropical depression and I think Typhoon status starts around 64knts

This explains the different "official" rating scales for different locations of TRS'

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales
__________________

__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
weather

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Typhoon forming off Yap, Phl Coast? Gone2long Pacific & South China Sea 48 28-12-2016 05:40
Tropical Depression Forming off Bahamas Amgine Cruising News & Events 18 18-07-2011 18:14
Forming Lead Keel and Afixing it to the Boat Kristian Construction, Maintenance & Refit 11 10-02-2010 17:58



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 17:24.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.