Typhoon forming May 2017 and weather links

[hafa]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

At what wind speed does it become an active tropical cyclone according to JTWC?

What is a tropical disturbance, a tropical depression, or a tropical storm ?

Beaufort Scale

Note that JTWC is now under NOAA

[Pelagic]

Basically anything sustained above 40 gets my attention

[TJ D]

Right, I've only dealt with TRS's in the EPAC and Atlantic, where sub-34 is a TD, 34-63 is a TS, and above a hurricane.

The way I read it, a cyclone is any TRS at TS strength (34), with a typhoon above 64.

Semantics, anyway. Any cyclone is plenty scary, no matter how you name it...

[Pelagic]

Yes, if you click on the Western Pacific in the link I provided it pulls down this scale

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale
CategorySustained winds

Violent Typhoon≥105 knots
≥194 km/h
Very Strong Typhoon85–104 knots 157–193 km/h
Typhoon64–84 knots 118–156 km/h
Severe Tropical Storm48–63 knots 89–117 km/h
Tropical Storm34–47 knots
62–88 km/h
Tropical Depression≤33 knots
≤61 km/h

[pbmaise]

This particular LLCC is expected to peak in a few hours as a Tropical Storm.

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.2N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

In 2015 Europa set sail from Hong Kong and ran smack into a system that both of us where already aware of before it transited the Philippines.

My purpose here is to try and show that:

#1 Websites like Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Typhoon Tracker report possible deadly conditions quite late and only after significant development.

#2 I am also trying to show that by watching Windy.com and the Japanese Meterological satellite feed it is possible to sail more conservatively and to observe problems earlier.

JTWC provides just one or two distant satellite views per day. Whereas JMA provides high resolution updates every 5 minutes or so.

I am very open if anyone has better websites to look at. I didn't mean to upset you by saying that Typhoon Tracker was no good. I admit they finally changed their message that said all clear through Monday. That change came around 11 am on Sunday.

[Pelagic]

Not upset at all and your points are well taken.

I knew some of the guys well.on Europa and it was so tragic that they ignored the warnings and did not return to HK, when advised of a developing situation.

When not actually sailing, Typhoon 2000 is good enough for Marina preparation but passage making as was Europa, any hint of an approaching storm accross my path, would have delayed departure. JMA is definitely the best resource and windy TV the best long range graphics I have found

Problem is when you allow shoreside commitments to influence your decision making.

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Pelagic,

I checked the link you suggested this morning.

Despite the facts

1. This LLCC was clearly present 5 days ago,
2. It has marched right thru the Philippines,
3. It is still very close to the Philippines,
4. It has already advanced to a full bore typhoon alert.

Anyone looking at the link you suggested would read:

"Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western Pacific Ocean, the Philippine Sea, and the South China Sea is not expected through Monday, June 12, 2017."

Not exactly accurate is it?

also,

Hafa. That link also indicated nothing about this formation. However, it is out of their jurisdiction.

Thanks PB. Great stuff. My understanding is that last year's season was something of an anomaly, due to the fact that is was an especially cold, year. Typhoons formed up more northerly than at any time in thelast 6 years.

Are those weather conditions persisting in the seas effecting PHL this year? If so, can we expect to be relatively safe at 11 degrees latitude, until later in the year, meaning Oct, Nov, Dec?

Everyone please feel free to chime in.

Best,

G2L

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Won't be in May this year.

Hind sight is always 20-20, no ? : )

G2L

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by Gone2long

Thanks PB. Great stuff. My understanding is that last year's season was something of an anomaly, due to the fact that is was an especially cold, year. Typhoons formed up more northerly than at any time in thelast 6 years.

Are those weather conditions persisting in the seas effecting PHL this year? If so, can we expect to be relatively safe at 11 degrees latitude, until later in the year, meaning Oct, Nov, Dec?

Everyone please feel free to chime in.

Best,

G2L

Specifically, I meant 11 degrees or under. Guiuan, where Yolanda made landfall, is right at 11 degrees. We are just under that now, thinking of transiting N. to PG or Subic. Great wind direction now.



Yolanda was a Nov. storm, and anything that far south in June/July would be very rare, it seems. Same with PG?

Best,

G2L

[pbmaise]

G2L

"In their joint probabilistic outlook issued in early December, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) called for decreasing odds of La Niña over the next few months, dropping to just 18 percent by late spring. Neutral conditions are deemed most likely by CPC/IRI, with 65 percent odds by spring and 53 percent by summer. And the odds of El Niño are expected to steadily rise throughout the first half of 2017, reaching 29 percent by summer."

It also must be noted that there is a band of very warm water near the equator and in the West Philippine Sea.

This long range forecast proved largely true and it has been a very quiet first half of 2017 with formations beginning close to the equator.

Yesterday I saw on Windy.com a weak LLCC forming again SE of Palau. Checking JMA satellite I saw little moisture of concern Therefore, I don't expect it to develop into something significant even if it persists and marches through PI like the most recent one.

So I would say yes you are good to go heading North within PI.

With West Philippines Sea temperatures around 31 C, any LLCC that makes it through PI will likely develop to at least tropical storm levels. So I would not call a segment to or from HK safe now through the end of the year. Of course a fast transit well timed in a big sailing vessel would likely not be a big risk.

Looking forward the rest of 2017, 17 typhoons (10 major) are predicted. See Wikipedia page for 2017 Typhoon Season.

Perhaps 3 to 4 may enter PAR late in the season.

Long term I think the greatest factor driving weather in the Philippines is Australia. In December 2016-February 2017 my Sulu Sea crossings were pretty intense owing to very high winds from the North.


"The Australian summer of 2016/17 has been dubbed the 'angry summer' by climate scientists who've been investigating just how extreme things got.
They've found that during a 90-day period, 205 weather records were broken.
Professor Will Steffen is a scientist with the Climate Council of Australia, and the lead author of the report Angry Summer 2016/17: Climate Change Supercharging Extreme Weather, released today."

The reason Australia is such a problem for the Philippines is water doesn't evaporate off a desert. So most of the heat goes into raising air temperature. These warm airs rise and draw cooler air down from the Philippines.

This is of course a natural cycle that occurs each year in the Philippines and are our two wind seasons called .. continued in next post

[pbmaise]

Winds in the Philippines:

A " monsoon" is a weather pattern; a monsoon has a different name in each country that it affects. In the Philippines , the Summer Monsoon (West or southwest) is called the Habagat (ha-bag-at) and the Winter Monsoon. (East or NE)

Owing to Australia's high high temperatures this past season Amihan was very big. Further, Australian temperatures have remained warm and this is mitigating the Summer Monsoon.

Long term I see this trend continuing and I am already making plans to adjust my own sailing plans in accordance.

Amihan will come sooner, be more intense, and last longer.

Habagat will come later, be less intense, and last shorter.

Hence sailing in the PI in the Summer will be more mild.

Sailing in November to February should be more cautious, less sail up, and focused along SW facing coastlines.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amihan

This past Amihan was also a wet one. The reason is the warm moist winds generated by warm water East of PI were mixing with colder winds from the North.

Note: There are particular dangers when sailing along SW coasts in Winter. The conditions can go from mild to extreme the moment you are beyond the sheltered coast.

For example: At the Southern tip of Negros, the mountains cause winds near the coast to flow gently from the NW. When rounding the Southern tip, you should expect to suddenly be slammed by high winds from the NE. This of course means an accidental gybe.
So you should be prepared for it.

Good safe sailing!

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Winds in the Philippines:

A " monsoon" is a weather pattern; a monsoon has a different name in each country that it affects. In the Philippines , the Summer Monsoon (West or southwest) is called the Habagat (ha-bag-at) and the Winter Monsoon. (East or NE)

Owing to Australia's high high temperatures this past season Amihan was very big. Further, Australian temperatures have remained warm and this is mitigating the Summer Monsoon.

Long term I see this trend continuing and I am already making plans to adjust my own sailing plans in accordance.

Amihan will come sooner, be more intense, and last longer.

Habagat will come later, be less intense, and last shorter.

Hence sailing in the PI in the Summer will be more mild.

Sailing in November to February should be more cautious, less sail up, and focused along SW facing coastlines.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amihan

This past Amihan was also a wet one. The reason is the warm moist winds generated by warm water East of PI were mixing with colder winds from the North.

Note: There are particular dangers when sailing along SW coasts in Winter. The conditions can go from mild to extreme the moment you are beyond the sheltered coast.

For example: At the Southern tip of Negros, the mountains cause winds near the coast to flow gently from the NW. When rounding the Southern tip, you should expect to suddenly be slammed by high winds from the NE. This of course means an accidental gybe.
So you should be prepared for it.

Good safe sailing!

Thank you for the intriguing details in both your responses, most of which have given me a certain degree of hope, if not confidence : ). My very first off shore experience was as crew aboard a 40 foot Morgan, coming N from Bermuda in June. We hit an early hurricane, encountering 70 knot gusts and 22' seas,. Then, just as we figured we had been through the worst of it, we got knocked down, 750 miles off the US mainland, with both the main and jib torn up pretty badly. We drifted toward Europe for a few days, sitting in the cockpit, taking 2 hour watches stitching up the sails. A very memorable experience, to say the least.

Consequently, I am definitely on your side of spectrum when it comes to risk-taking during typhoon season. We did well coming up from Siargao, despite fun times in the Hinatuan pass and Surigao straits. Our timing was good, but there was never a dull moment : ).

We are heading to Cebu from S. Leyte now, which should be something of a pleasure cruise in comparison. Then, it's off to PG, and, if we can muster the courage, further N.

Wind here, S E of Maasin has been variable, switching from NE all the way around to SW and S. Hoping for more consistent southerlies to scoot us over to Bohol sand islands and Danao. We are day sailing, so it will be a two day trip. Have also considered a stop in Mactan, but not too sure about how feasible it would be to anchor there with convenient access to town.

Using Open CPN, but have a good paper chart as well, and we went this way on the way down, so I know something about what to expect in N Bohol, in terms of tidal rips, etc. If you have any hints, advice, warnings or whatever, they would be greatly appreciated. You can PM me if any of this is too off topic.

I know that others posting on this thread have considerable experience in this area of the PHL, so everyone please feel free to chime in.

Best to all and thanks PB for your detailed insights.

G2L

[Zven]

Originally Posted by Gone2long

Have also considered a stop in Mactan, but not too sure about how feasible it would be to anchor there with convenient access to town.

I live on Mactan. Perhaps you know this, but there is a modern marina there: Cebu Yacht Club. It's in a protected spot on the inside of the island, north of both the bridges. It is close to town with easy transport. There is a chandlery, other yacht businesses, and now even two or three shopping malls near the marina.
Anchoring is another matter - I would not know.

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by Zven

I live on Mactan. Perhaps you know this, but there is a modern marina there: Cebu Yacht Club. It's in a protected spot on the inside of the island, north of both the bridges. It is close to town with easy transport. There is a chandlery, other yacht businesses, and now even two or three shopping malls near the marina.
Anchoring is another matter - I would not know.

Thanks Zven. Yes, I am familiar with CYC; however, I can't afford their rates : ) I actually found a FREE mooring right just north east of the Movenpick Hotel, and we used it for a few days. Very pretty and convenient there, but we got hit by some nasty squalls, and although the mooring held, I took a close look at it and decided to move on.

Thanks for your post,

G2L