Well, it looks like at least one person wanted a look at my weather prediction log. Here it is since last Wednesday - giving a week of forecasts for the PNW coast and local conditions for the Northern California
Time of Forecast
: 17:22 Wed 1 July.
12 UTC (05 PDT) Wed 01 July MM5 36KM Domain shows A 1008 low south of the Aleutians (50N) squeezing the 1031 Pacific high towards the BC coast. 10M Winds nearshore of the California coast 10 to 20 and variable direction. At 42 hour, the low should be moving slightly north west and dissipating, the winds off N Cal
will begin to strengthen from the West, clocking N at 69 hours and possibly building and becoming more like the prevailing conditions at 72 hours and beyond.
The above is confirmed by the radiofax analysis and forecast
with the addition of a 1005 stationary low just over SF bay
. This explains some of the light southerly winds shown on the MM5. 24 hr show the low increasing pressure to 1010 and 1012 at 92 hour.
Time of forecast:: 14:30 Thursday 2 July
SF: Wind SW 4 Gusts to 6 – As predicted yesterday by the small stationary low over the area. Waves 3.3ft 14 seconds SW. 1013mb. (3 mb higher than forecast) Too bad we are not underway now…
Pt Arena: Wind SW 7 Gusts to 8
MM5 36km domain: 14PDT Thu 02 Jul: 1017 low below the Aleutions (60N 163W) continues to squeeze the pacific high to the NW. Weak and variable winds persist off the SF coast. MM5 does not show the stationary low but the isobars are very far apart. 24 hour forcast show the weak low dissipating and spreading isobars of the coast with winds continuing weak and variable inshore. By Saturday, the prevailing summer conditions should return with wind structures off the California coast beginning to realign to the N and NW and strengthen slightly.
Radiofax confirms MM5 again showing the inland low but no longer showing the stationary low off of SF bay
NWW3 Significant wave height/direction shows current waves NNW 2-3M decreasing after 42 hours and shifting to the SW. Wind is also forecast to shift to the W (this does NOT concur with the 500mb forecasts). At 120 – 140 hours, wave height increases 1-3 meters more and at 150 hours shifts W to WNW.
Time of forecast: 0800 Saturday 4 July (missed yesterday)
SF: 0600, Wiind SW 2, SSE 7 becoming SW, NW swell 3 ft at 8 sec.
Eurika: 0716: Wind N at 5 – 10 becoming variable, NNW swell 4 ft at 8 sec.
Crescent City: Wind W 4 G6 , waves NW 4 ft at 9 sec.
MM5 36 m domain Pacific high at 1029 stretched from 47N 175W to 57N 155W, Weak low not shown but effects present along the coast now centered off SF bay. This low was predicted to dissipate but now is predicted to slowly move up the coast bringing light and variable S winds up past cape Mendicino by Sunday evening. !2km and 4 km runs show a stable S wind system moving up the coast bringing 5-15 kt southerlies off the Oregon
coast Monday and Tuesday.
NWW3 current conditions NNW 1-2 m winds N 5-15 kts. 6 hr forcast shows wave direction off SF shifting SW. SW trend continues and moves up the coast and by 33 hr waves up to central Oregon
are SW and decreasing slightly. This continues through 108 hours when waves shift W becoming WNW at 132 hrs. with some confusion of S waves at 180hrs.
Time of Forecast: 1100 Sunday 5 July
SF: W 4 G6, 1017mb, 3 ft 15 sec. forecast wind increasing W9 tomorrow to WNW 16 with 22 kt gusts Thursday WNW swell to 6-9 ft.
Point Arena: NW 3 G4, 1018 swell n/a. Forecast wind increasing NW 7-14 tomorrow to NW 18 to 20 on Thursday, Swell increasing NNW 3 tomorrow to WNW 6 on Thursday.
Eurika: SE 4 G8 1016mb, 3ft 15 sec. Forecast: Wind increasing wak and variable tomorrow, coming N and NW 12-15kt Thursday, swell NW 5 ft on Thursday.
NOTE: Where are those south swells predicted by the NWW3?
MM5 36km mesoscale: 05 pdt shows the weak low off central Oregon as predicted. Local SF to Oregon winds still weak and variable. 24 hour shows this system moving north and inland over BC and becoming part of a new low pressure system at 50N 120 W beginning to form. Local N CA/OR winds strengthening and becoming N to NW influenced by the pacific high (uniting at 1029mb centered at 49N 160W). At this time, a 1003 low will have formed over Queen Charlotte Island. B y 66 hr, N California winds still N but Central OR will be seeing W winds shifting SW due to 1006 low moving south now at N end ov Vancouver island. By 96 hours this low shows no sign of dissipating and may continue south, bringing W and SW winds to the coast.
MM5 12km domain: Weak low influencing N CA/ So Oregon is continuing to move N Weak southerly winds beginning to strengthen and clock to the west as the Pacific high regains influence here by 39 hours. At 60 hours, the 1007 trough will be at the top of Vancouver Island and headed south. Winds in Wa and Central Oregon will shift west to SW and weaken. Watch for the formation of clouds and frontal systems as this develops. 72 hr forcast shows an interesting divergence of winds at the CA/Or border … more to follow.
NNW3: inshore swell mainly SW along the coast and N to NNW offshore. Offshore swells becoming mainly SW/SSW over the next 24 hours. 1-3 meters. This condition persists until 72 hours when the swell increases and begins to shift W offshore. By 90 hrs we see W swell at 2-3M entering the inshore region. Past 120 hrs, swell has shifted WNW and may decrease out at 160 hr swell has decresed and may be shifting back to the south along the Oregon coast. This may be the influence of the new trough coming down from B.C.
Time of forecast: 0900 Tuesday 7 July 2009
Current Conditions; local forecasts:
SF: SW 7 G 11, 1015mb, 3.3ftSW 15sec.
Point Arena: N16 G 17, 1014mb 5.2ft? 5 sec (SQUARED) forecast NNW 20-25 G 31, 5.75ftNNW 8 sec. Same forcast for next few days, possible reduction of wind to NNW 15-20.
Eurika: NNW 10-20 G25 4-7ft 6 sec. No change through Thursday.
MM5 36km: 0800: Pacific high at 1030 has moved south to 44N 165W (off Central Oregon). Sunday’s new low at 1012(?) over Queen Charlotte Island moving S. Current conditions are prevailing from Mexico
to central Oregon. The low moves South bringing W winds, turning southerly, to Eurika and southe Oregon in 24 hours. At 48 hours the low has only moved to central Vancouver and weakend to 1018, still bringing some SW winds to Oregon. By 57 hours this low seems to be dissipating but it is hard to tell at this point. California cost continues to be driven by prevailing conditions.
MM5 12km: 05 PDT conditions for N Cal
and Oregon coast are prevailing with 15-25 N NNW winds gusting to 25-30. 1013 low over Vancouver headed South bringing W to SW to S 5-10 kt winds to Central OR by tomorrow. Low begins to dissipate, 1018 at 48 hours with weak and variable winds off OR and will be gone at 64 hours with conditions returning to prevailing.
Time of Forecast: 2000 Wednesday 8 July 2009
SF: N23 G27 1013mb 10.8ft NW 8 sec. Forecast thru Sunday show prevailing conditions persist: 13 – 22 kt winds greater in the afternoons and evenings.
Pt Arena: N12 G14 1016mb, 7.2ft(NA), 6 sec. Prevailing conditions will persist thru Sunday.
Eurika: N6 G6, 1018mb 2.6ftNW 10sec. Forecast shows these conditions persis through Sunday. It looks like once around the cape, things settle down a bit. This may be the trough coming down from the N.
MM5 36km domain: The trough off Vancouver Island, now at 1916mb is dissipating as forecast and will be all but gone tomorrow morning. The 1028 mb pacific high is off the N cal coast at about 39N 160W. In 24 hrs, a new ridge begins to form in the gulf of Alaska
at 53N 150W. the ridge should intensify and move slowly east bringing slightly higher winds offshore of British Columbia
but not having a significant effect on the prevailing conditions off Northern California and Oregon (with the possibility of reinforcing prevailing conditions). This ridge and the trough to the east would make fo an interesting sail to the North up the center of the Gulf of Alaska, but we do not plan to go out that far.
MM5 12km Domain: the dissipating trough off Vacouver Island is giving the Central Oregon and Washington
Coast some nice southerlies (with maybe a few nasty westerlies on the central OR coast making bar conditions bad. But of course we are still here in SF so they will not affect us. By tomorrow evening this will all be gone. From then on out to the 96 hour mark (and beyond) prevailing Northerly winds down the coast are reinforced by the ridge forecast in the 36km domain.
NNW3: 1-2 meter NW swell increasing to 2-3m over the next 96 hours.