I'd say the second step, looking outside, is the most accurate. The only problem is, there aren't any meteorologists with windows at Pigeon Point.
The point forecast
is rarely accurate for Pigeon Point. The night I spent five hours getting chewed by 40 knot
winds and 12 foot cross seas at Pigeon Point had a point forecast
of "winds 10-20 knots." I look at that forecast every time before making the passage
, and I've concluded they have a blind guy pulling forecasts out of a hat.