Well it is 2016....guess what? I think we are finally making this trip....guess what? It is another El Nino year! I did cross to Hawaii
in 2012, and after 3 years in the PNW we are making our way south from Oregon
Although it looks like El Nino is weakening now and almost all models show that it will be Neutral by summer, there is a higher probability of tropical storm activity reaching FP this year (based on other El Nino years). In 1998 there were some storms that reached FP, although none damaged any cruising boats.
“The 1997–98 South Pacific
cyclone season was one of the most active and longest South Pacific
tropical cyclone seasons on record
, with 16 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal with 3 systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 1997, while the final system of the season dissipated on May 3, 1998, after the season had officially ended on April 30.” (wikipedia)
is relatively safe, especially by May. Storms start in the Western Pacific and make there way East, el nino's warmer waters give the storms energy to possibly track farther East.
All that said, we are still planning on attempting to make it across this year but we will keep an eye to the weather
over the next two months and when crossing too if we do pull the trigger.