Cruisers Forum
 


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 29-11-2008, 09:42   #1
Registered User
 
Amgine's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 1,385
Images: 1
North Pacific low

Anyone watching that whopping low in the north pacific? NOAA predictors have it absorbing the leading low within 72 hours, dropping to 960... and 96hr forecast has it covering from 60N to 20N.
__________________
Amgine

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog anchored in a coral atoll.
Amgine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 09:45   #2
Moderator Emeritus
 
David M's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Eastern Tennessee
Boat: Research vessel for a university, retired now.
Posts: 10,406
Grab your hats!

weather.com - Map Room - Satellite Map, Weather Map, Doppler Radar - Pacific Ocean Satellite

Oceanweather Inc: Current Marine Data


__________________
David

Life begins where land ends.
David M is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 10:10   #3
Registered User
 
Amgine's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 1,385
Images: 1
Surface 96hr forecast

NOAA surface winds forecast 96hr

(Thanks again Valis!!)
__________________
Amgine

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog anchored in a coral atoll.
Amgine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 10:17   #4
Registered User
 
Amgine's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 1,385
Images: 1
David M: Thanks for those links, that image is awesome, but some of the annotations - those "ship" ones which are right in the path of that thing... Makes me worried about the news over the next couple days.
__________________
Amgine

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog anchored in a coral atoll.
Amgine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 10:57   #5
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Seattle
Boat: Schock 35
Posts: 157
Here is the official NOAA chart for the same region.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/pyba01.gif
Tom Spohn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 11:03   #6
Registered User
 
AnchorageGuy's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wherever the boat is!
Boat: Marine Trader 34DC
Posts: 4,619
Maybe I am missing something being here on the other coast but it seems that large low pressure systems in this area with 30 to 35 knot winds are pretty common in the winter months. What makes this one different?
__________________
Chesapeake Bay, ICW Hampton Roads To Key West, The Gulf Coast, The Bahamas

The Trawler Beach House
Voyages Of Sea Trek
AnchorageGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 11:23   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Seattle
Boat: Schock 35
Posts: 157
The weather patterns are not unusual for this time of year in this area. The original chart showed the possibility of landfall of the storm in the Vancouver BC area, which would be a concern to folks living there. As it turns out the storm will hit much farther north. Where these things get scary is when several systems merge into a "perfect storm" before landfall. Also by convention high winds in this area are not allowed to be called hurricanes or typhoons with those names reserved for other parts of the world. But we do get 100+ mph winds in this area allbeit infrequently. Weather forecasting on the west coast is very difficult since there is no land to the west close by. Many of us are in the habit of consulting the surface analysis charts on NOAA or other sites.
Tom Spohn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 11:59   #8
Registered User
 
delmarrey's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Philippines in the winters
Boat: It’s in French Polynesia now
Posts: 11,368
Images: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Baier View Post
Maybe I am missing something being here on the other coast but it seems that large low pressure systems in this area with 30 to 35 knot winds are pretty common in the winter months. What makes this one different?
These are the storms that sink fishing and other commercial boats. It's not only the wind and waves but the water temperature too! Our currents come out of the North unlike the East coat where you get the warm waters from the South.

The East coast cold weather comes down out of mid Canada and swoops across the NE.

Ours shoots down out of the Gulf of Alaska carrying lots of COLD moisture with it (rains ice water) . And some times it crosses the Rockies and onto the Mid West. They are predicting snow here by Dec. 11th. The Mid west may see it in a couple weeks. Once this starts it doesn't stop until Feb+.
__________________
Faithful are the Wounds of a Friend, but the Kisses of the Enemy are Deceitful! ........
The measure of a man is how he navigates to a proper shore in the midst of a storm!
delmarrey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 15:21   #9
Registered User
 
jackdale's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 6,252
Images: 1
I compared the nepacific weatherfax to GRIB files. They are are slightly different. The 7 day GRIB files show nothing over 40 knots with the system tracking to the Gulf of Alaska and dissapating. Either way, I am glad not to be in that.

BTW the long range forecast for Calgary (rather inland) show a big temperature drop starting Dec 9.

Jack
__________________
CRYA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator, Sail
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 15:29   #10
Registered User
 
AnchorageGuy's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Wherever the boat is!
Boat: Marine Trader 34DC
Posts: 4,619
it has been my experience over decades of dealing with and observing the forecasts by the NWS and NOAA that they have a very difficult time forecasting weather tomorrow let alone 2 weeks out. The only job on the planet where you can get paid very well, always be wrong and never loose your job.
__________________
Chesapeake Bay, ICW Hampton Roads To Key West, The Gulf Coast, The Bahamas

The Trawler Beach House
Voyages Of Sea Trek
AnchorageGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 16:34   #11
Registered User
 
Amgine's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 1,385
Images: 1
::nod::

Definitely, Chuck.

One of the things I watch for is the 'bomb' storms we get with some regularity. They start out as a normal front, then suddenly steepen and accellerate. Hurricane force winds with very cold temperatures = not nice.
__________________
Amgine

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog anchored in a coral atoll.
Amgine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2008, 20:24   #12
Moderator Emeritus
 
David M's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Eastern Tennessee
Boat: Research vessel for a university, retired now.
Posts: 10,406
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Baier View Post
it has been my experience over decades of dealing with and observing the forecasts by the NWS and NOAA that they have a very difficult time forecasting weather tomorrow let alone 2 weeks out. The only job on the planet where you can get paid very well, always be wrong and never loose your job.
...same with the Presidency
__________________
David

Life begins where land ends.
David M is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2008, 18:12   #13
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Coos Bay, Oregon
Boat: Valiant 40 (1975)
Posts: 4,073
Alright you guys, educate me. (please!) This looks like a cold weather hurricane. Why will this one dissipate while the ones in Caribbean get stronger till they hit land? And with the center so low in pressure, how come the winds are not traveling faster? Why aren't these storms tagged and followed like hurricanes?
"Interested sailors want to know"
s/v Beth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2008, 19:50   #14
Registered User
 
Stillraining's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Puget Sound
Boat: Irwin 41 CC Ketch
Posts: 2,878
Because Gales a really hot chick around these parts and we get goose bumps just saying her name...nope no hurricanes for us...
__________________
"Go simple, go large!".

Relationships are everything to me...everything else in life is just a tool to enhance them.
Stillraining is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2008, 20:53   #15
Registered User
 
Amgine's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver BC
Posts: 1,385
Images: 1
::laughs @ stillraining's comments::

Although it may look somewhat like a hurricane, it really isn't as cohesive. The amount of energy in the system is dramatically lower because the system is cold. The wind speeds are lower because the pressure gradient is not nearly as steep - the storm is much larger than your average hurricane; the tightly wound southern storms are the difference between a club and a rapier. I'd rather be poked by the club.

If either a high pressure or low pressure system runs into this one, it may continue a while longer. But getting as low as 960 is rare for a northern storm.
__________________
Amgine

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog anchored in a coral atoll.
Amgine is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
storms, weather, north pacific

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Why as Low as 10V Alan Wheeler Electrical: Batteries, Generators & Solar 17 17-01-2012 20:58
To Hawaii from PNW(pacific north west conrad Navigation 3 24-01-2008 07:42
North Pacific crossing nascar11 Crew Archives 1 14-01-2008 20:30
How to get under a low bridge! delmarrey The Sailor's Confessional 5 01-12-2007 19:36
The low has passed... Amgine Flotsam & Sailing Miscellany 2 16-12-2006 11:58

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 21:21.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.