Double trouble typhoons end/begin season

[pbmaise]

Trouble brewing heads up

The Southern hemisphere LLCC is at 11 degrees South and will be a typhoon soon.

The Northern hemisphere LLCC is right at 1 degree North. That is so close to the equator there is doubt. If the Southern one builds too quickly it will likely draw the Northern across the equator where it will snuff out.

I am most concerned about the Northern and whether it will follow Yolanda (Haiyan)'s track into the Philippines. Way too soon to say for sure.

Unlike the early December typhoon called Melor (Nona), this one will have far more time to build to a very large size. The circulation already covers 10 degrees to the West.

[pbmaise]

Here are best satellite links according to where now located:

Southern near American Samoa
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGOESIR.JPG

Northern near dateline and equator
www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wcpac/ir2-l.jpg

Note:Time stamp appears wrong on second feed, however LLCC shows in the position indicated in report. Consider 2nd image suspect.

Notice in WindyTy link the number 180. You can adjust where you look on windyty by changing number

https://www.windyty.com/?4.000,180.000,5

[pbmaise]

That was quick, Southern typhoon is named Ula.
The track and updated photo is below. That link I gave in email above to look at Northern Hemisphere LLCC is no good.

This color image of the Northern system came from this sat.

GOES Loops - Central Pacific, Rainbow (GOES West)

It will only be seen in this view a few more hours until it moves to the West.

[pbmaise]

Update:
A formation alert has been issued for Northern Hemisphere LLCC.
Questions to monitor
...Will it form today and be last of 2015 or first of 2016?
...Size? Likely very big with a long time to build huge.
...Path? Likely Philippines, perhaps Haiyan's or Pablo's route?

Note:
If you looked at WindyTy.com yesterday and panned down you would have seen a second LLCC to the West of typhoon Ula.

Ula is headed slightly to East at first and that is giving more space for this one to develop. That LLCC is now forecast "Low" to become a third typhoon.

[Pelagic]

Thanks for the Heads Up....:thumbup:

Just when i thought it was safe....I shifted StarGazer out of Typhoon Shelter (SBYC) to remove Masts and do major service on engine....so stuck at HYS without mobility.

Certainly a strange Year.

[Gone2long]

Paying close attention to your posts and other sources, as we are intending to sail S from Luzon on 1/4 or so.


Thank u for all updates.


G2L

[pbmaise]

In early December typhoon In-fa formed close to the equator and very quickly turned into a Cat 4. As big as this was, it was still not judged a super typhoon nor a Cat 5.

For recent super Cat 5 cyclones we can look at Bopha (Pablo) and Haiyan (Yolanda).

Nona formed very close to the equator as the other two, however was too close to the Philippines to build very strong. Further, it is my position that another factor is coming into play. The upper air temperatures for early development of Nona was too warm. Lack of cloud cover East of the Philippines indicates moisture is not condensing into clouds. It is mandatory for moisture to condense in order to release the latent heat of evaporation and feed the cyclone with new energy.

This btw accounts for the rapid intensification of Nona when it approached Mindoro Island and Puerta Galera. Nona met a strong cold Southern wind coming down the West Philippine Sea. Initially this caused a giant amount of water to condense within Nona and Nona became stronger as it crossed Mindoro.

The current LLCC is simply called TD Nine C. It is still below 5 degrees lat, however, has moved North despite typhoon Ula which is almost directly South.

It is not until Nine C reaches 5 degrees lat that rapid intensification should be expected.

Three factors in play will likely make Nine C a Cat 5 super typhoon

#1 Like Pablo and Yolanda, it is forming very far from the Philippines and will have many days to build before reaching it. In fact it is forming way out East of the date line and will have at least one or two more days.

#2 It is later in the season with more cooler air coming from the North. Further the tilt of the earth means the sun is less likely to warm the air preventing necessary cloud formation.

#3 Typhone Ufa almost directly South is spinning in a clockwise fashion. It will help draw winds along the equator that are traveling from West to East. The two typhoons help reinforce this flow and both will become stronger.

Only a day after first predictions for Ufa, the JTWC is already being proven wrong. Ufa has intensified stronger and faster than forecasted.

I am certainly not saying I am anywhere near being right and am admittedly an alarmist.

Bottom line, Cat 5 Super typhoon to hit Philippines in window Jan 8-11.

Do not be lulled into thinking just because it isn't forecasted to do much over next 3 days that this will not occur. Nine-C cannot do much until it rises a little more off the equator.

[Pelagic]

I really enjoy and follow your thought process on this.

I find it interesting that many sailors these days simply rely on the various Met agencies to make passage plans based on their predictions.

There is a lazy belief that with all the modern monitoring tools, they are infallible.

But they are not!... and do miss local developments especially in years with irregular conditions.

I also find it ironic that 30 years ago, mariners were forced to become keen observer's and local meteorologists, to stay ahead of dangerous weather.

I would encourage all to rebuild that skill as Pbmaise had done.

[pbmaise]

I need to retract my dates. This is forming way far out there. Arrival in Philippines is likely closer to window Jan 16-Jan 25

Now I hear you moaning that typhoons dont come in January.

Well that is if you ignore Super Typhoon Karen in 1948 and Super Typhoon Rose in 1957. Both in January and both big.

Typhoon Rose intensified to super size in the short distance between Guam and the Philippines. I had a haunch and looked up El Nino history. Rose was in an El Nino year and just under Cat 5.

Unless you haven't heard we are in an El Nino and sea temperatures are record high. This is perfect storm conditions so I stick with my Cat 5 Super prediction.

[svmariane]

Fingers crossed, but it looks as though Cat 2 Cyclone Ula will give Pago Pago a miss. Still, a bit blustery here in harbour.

Weather Maps

Current map that will expire soon....
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0992.jpg

[Gone2long]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

In early December typhoon In-fa formed close to the equator and very quickly turned into a Cat 4. As big as this was, it was still not judged a super typhoon nor a Cat 5.

For recent super Cat 5 cyclones we can look at Bopha (Pablo) and Haiyan (Yolanda).

Nona formed very close to the equator as the other two, however was too close to the Philippines to build very strong. Further, it is my position that another factor is coming into play. The upper air temperatures for early development of Nona was too warm. Lack of cloud cover East of the Philippines indicates moisture is not condensing into clouds. It is mandatory for moisture to condense in order to release the latent heat of evaporation and feed the cyclone with new energy.

This btw accounts for the rapid intensification of Nona when it approached Mindoro Island and Puerta Galera. Nona met a strong cold Southern wind coming down the West Philippine Sea. Initially this caused a giant amount of water to condense within Nona and Nona became stronger as it crossed Mindoro.

The current LLCC is simply called TD Nine C. It is still below 5 degrees lat, however, has moved North despite typhoon Ula which is almost directly South.

It is not until Nine C reaches 5 degrees lat that rapid intensification should be expected.

Three factors in play will likely make Nine C a Cat 5 super typhoon

#1 Like Pablo and Yolanda, it is forming very far from the Philippines and will have many days to build before reaching it. In fact it is forming way out East of the date line and will have at least one or two more days.

#2 It is later in the season with more cooler air coming from the North. Further the tilt of the earth means the sun is less likely to warm the air preventing necessary cloud formation.

#3 Typhone Ufa almost directly South is spinning in a clockwise fashion. It will help draw winds along the equator that are traveling from West to East. The two typhoons help reinforce this flow and both will become stronger.

Only a day after first predictions for Ufa, the JTWC is already being proven wrong. Ufa has intensified stronger and faster than forecasted.

I am certainly not saying I am anywhere near being right and am admittedly an alarmist.

Bottom line, Cat 5 Super typhoon to hit Philippines in window Jan 8-11.

Do not be lulled into thinking just because it isn't forecasted to do much over next 3 days that this will not occur. Nine-C cannot do much until it rises a little more off the equator.

Thanks,

Keep the info coming. Just got back from Samar car trip and though the pass east of San Antonio Is, looked like a lake, the devastation from little nona was evident everywhere. Will share photos later,

Invaluable insights as we are planning to sail south around the 4th.

All the best,

G2L

[pbmaise]

I have no clear explanation, JTWC has cancelled the watch on Nine C and says it dissapated and a new alert will be issued if it reforms. When I look at WindyTy it still shows a very clear LLCC.

Perhaps Typhoon Ula to the South which has grown so large so fast did indeed pull the previous LLCC across the equator and both JTWC and WindyTy are reporting a bogus position of something that died long ago.

If you recall I did say it was at a critical stage and could be pulled South and snuffed out. My claims that it would become a typhoon came after JTWC reported it moved up off the equator and was slowly intensifying.

This would be the third time now I have observed the JTWC tracking and reporting on something that may not exist.

[pbmaise]

An error on the part of JTWC may show in this satellite image.

WindyTy shows the LLCC is clearly near 172E and 3 degrees North.
That agrees with this image.

I was looking at this same satellite yesterday at a very bright spot in same position.

The problem for JTWC is this is a full 8 degrees West of where they say Nine C is.

Instead of saying they made a mistake that Nine C did not track East as they claimed, something rather strange, they decided to kill off Nine C and claim this is a new system.

If you want to track what WindyTy and I are looking at use this satellite

www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMG.JPG

[pbmaise]

Today, Sunday the 3rd of Jan, WindyTy is still showing the Northerh Hemisphere LLCC. However, they indicate it has drawn closer down to the equator.

Meanwhile Typhoon Ula is tracking South and down near 19 S.

As Ula gets farther South and begins to weaken, the LLCC near the equator will likely rise back up to near 5 N where it will become a potential problem again. That is, if it doesn't get drawn across the equator first.

[pbmaise]

Update Tuesday morning

Typhoon Ula continues tracking South and is near 22S. Intensity has dropped to about 80 knots. It looks like no landfall at typhoon intensity.

WindyTy.com still shows a LLCC right at the date line. Yesterday it showed it right at the equator and now it has risen to about 1 degree.

How exactly they are able to see this and whether it is true is still an open question. Proof is in the pudding.

Also, WindyTy now indicates a second LLCC a little farther to the East.
They also indicate an LLCC to the West of the date line near 167 with a lat of about 2 degrees.

JTWC is now providing a 1 week forecast. Notice the deep red line along the equator which indicates a high chance of cyclone formation this week.