Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 03-09-2016, 19:18   #1
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: sailing south
Boat: Ericson 35-2
Posts: 310
Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

I'm looking at https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-06-...737,-123.552,6 and their model is predicting a small, short lived low W of Neah Bay on Monday, with associated southerly wind. Per my understanding, even though predicted wind is relatively weak, that's bad news because it's chop and swell going in opposite directions. If by the time we get to Neah Bay this forecast doesn't change, we should wait it out in Neah Bay and sail after it's replaced by the Pacific High northerlies.

Question is: am I right? And if so, how long should we wait before sailing to avoid the worst of confused seas when going out of Juan de Fuca?
__________________

__________________
RedHerring is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 20:03   #2
Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 156
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

I would wait ...I just did Port Alberni to San Diego...you'll get lots of lumps near Medicino...why take extra?
__________________

__________________
Eder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 20:20   #3
Marine Service Provider
 
newhaul's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182
Posts: 2,849
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Looked at passage weather and sail flow for the entrance to the straights and personally I would just go with the tides staying on the north side of the straits and head out about 20 miles before turning south
__________________
Non illigitamus carborundum
newhaul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 20:43   #4
Senior Cruiser
 
jackdale's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Calgary, AB, Canada
Posts: 4,991
Images: 1
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

24 and 48 hour forecasts do not look great.


Northeast Pacific WX Briefing Package

Watch the Low in Calfornia.

At least the wind and current is on your tail.
__________________
ISPA Yachtmaster Ocean Instructor Evaluator
Sail Canada Advanced Cruising Instructor
IYT Yachtmaster Coastal Instructor
ASA 201, 203,204, 205, 206, 214
As I sail, I praise God, and care not. (Luke Foxe)
jackdale is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 21:34   #5
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: sailing south
Boat: Ericson 35-2
Posts: 310
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Right, like I said, the way it looks, we are not sailing out of Neah Bay until Tuesday.
__________________
RedHerring is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2016, 21:34   #6
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2005
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 3,892
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

I'd sit out the GRIB predicted beating winds. Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through. There's plenty of harbors to break this up into 2 day runs with time to wait for good weather.
__________________
Paul L
http://svjeorgia.blogspot.com
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 01:04   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: sailing south
Boat: Ericson 35-2
Posts: 310
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

> Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through

This is where I need to ask for a clarification. Where are you looking and what are you seeing on Wednesday that makes you say "Thursday departure"?
__________________
RedHerring is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 02:23   #8
Registered User
 
UNCIVILIZED's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Up the mast, looking for clean wind.
Boat: Currently Shopping, & Heavily in LUST!
Posts: 4,464
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

If naught else, check with Victoria Classic Boat Festival - Home where they're currently having a Wooden Boat Festival. And also the NW Maritime Center in Port Townsend, WA Northwest Maritime Center As the Wooden Boat Festival in PT starts this Thu/Fri. And both HQ's will have a good fix on the weather in the area.

But be wary, as I've seen the first Winter Storm blow in as early as now, with winds over 50kts in Port Townsend. Which can mean a lot more at times out at the entrance to the Straits & in the Pacific off the coast. Usually lasting for a couple of days.
A common precursor to such, in PT, is when it starts to blow from the South.

www.Wunderground.com actually has a decent array of real time weather stations, & buoy inputs, to track what's going on in the area. Which helps in finding a spot to duck in out of the worst of the winds.
__________________

The Uncommon Thing, The Hard Thing, The Important Thing (in Life): Making Promises to Yourself, And Keeping Them.
UNCIVILIZED is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 07:19   #9
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,221
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

passage has been most accurate i have seen.
i am here facing 90e and hoping that passage made a big error, praying wundeground is accurate this time.
i would go with the passage weather site, which has been quite accurate here on west coast.
but please cross fingers and eyes that wunder has it this time.....
zeehag is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 08:06   #10
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2005
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 3,892
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedHerring View Post
> Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through

This is where I need to ask for a clarification. Where are you looking and what are you seeing on Wednesday that makes you say "Thursday departure"?
With the GFS GRIB last night it looked like you could avoid any beating and not have excessive motoring on.a Thurs. departure. I've done that run 4 times. I think it is best to head out on a good forecast, not go way offshore, and break the trip up with 1 or 2 stops.
You can play with departures days at FastSeas | Weather Routing Put your course and departure date in and calculate the course conditions. Then use the Departure tab to calculate the course if you left on the fallowing days. This is all based on the GFS GRIB,same model used on windty
__________________
Paul L
http://svjeorgia.blogspot.com
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 08:18   #11
Registered User
 
UNCIVILIZED's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: Up the mast, looking for clean wind.
Boat: Currently Shopping, & Heavily in LUST!
Posts: 4,464
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul L View Post
With the GFS GRIB last night it looked like you could avoid any beating and not have excessive motoring on.a Thurs. departure. I've done that run 4 times. I think it is best to head out on a good forecast, not go way offshore, and break the trip up with 1 or 2 stops.
You can play with departures days at FastSeas | Weather Routing Put your course and departure date in and calculate the course conditions. Then use the Departure tab to calculate the course if you left on the fallowing days. This is all based on the GFS GRIB,same model used on windty
Where, on that run, do you pull in to for stops?
__________________

The Uncommon Thing, The Hard Thing, The Important Thing (in Life): Making Promises to Yourself, And Keeping Them.
UNCIVILIZED is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 08:40   #12
Senior Cruiser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2005
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 3,892
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by UNCIVILIZED View Post
Where, on that run, do you pull in to for stops?
Newport, Crescent City, Eureka, Drake's Bay to name a few . The CG is good at giving bar info all along the Oregon coast.
__________________
Paul L
http://svjeorgia.blogspot.com
Paul L is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 09:25   #13
Senior Cruiser
 
seasick's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Bend, OR
Boat: Brewer designed Pacific 43 in fiberglass. Center cockpit set up for long-distance single handing.
Posts: 406
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

Download Meteoearth and pay for the upgrade. This is way more accurate a forecast than you will get with sail flow and others. The southerly will have passed by Monday night and a late Wednesday or Thursday departure will be fine if a bit calm. I have made this voyage seven times. My preference is 200-miles offshore away from the commercial traffic.
__________________
seasick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 14:19   #14
Registered User

Join Date: May 2016
Location: mackay, queensland. australia
Boat: e.a jack (builder), g.l watson (designer), 6.2 mtr wll sailboat
Posts: 459
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

https://earth.nullschool.net/ for wind/8176 hf for current weather prediction
__________________
knockabout is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2016, 14:02   #15
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: sailing south
Boat: Ericson 35-2
Posts: 310
Re: Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

We are in Neah Bay now, will be heading out tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Passage Weather shows a very light wind patch in the evening of the same day, which should be no big deal. We are going to take a couple hundred miles offshore route, too.

Thanks everyone!
__________________

__________________
RedHerring is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
san francisco, weather

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crew Wanted: PNW to San Francisco, San Fran to San Diego and San Diego to Mexico svasunto Crew Archives 19 09-09-2015 19:44
San Francisco sailors - Sailing to the Farallons tomorrow Bumberg Navigation 1 19-04-2013 09:45
Victoria to San Francisco (and Beyond) - Some Practical Questions cruisingkyra Pacific & South China Sea 31 05-09-2011 17:37
Crew Wanted: Captain / Instructor - Victoria, BC to San Francisco in September flyboy350 Crew Archives 3 21-08-2011 20:39
Victoria to San-Francisco passage free-at-last Pacific & South China Sea 6 10-01-2008 13:15


Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities


Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:35.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.