Alert December Typhoon Philippines

[pbmaise]

Yesterday at 2pm local time I raised a typhoon alarm based on the 2 pm satellite image. NOAA failed to circle it as suspect, however it sure looked suspect enough for me.

This brings up an good point. Unfortunately, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is not necessarily the best place to get data to plan a sailing trip. They only seem concerned with large typhoons that will form within the next 24 hours.

We on the otherhand need to be alert for large storms which can spell trouble for a small yacht, blow out sails, demast a sailboat, and may come 5 to 10 days down the road.

Have a close look at the JTWC satellite image and see if you think there should have been some thing of concern. Consider:

#1 El-nino above average water temperature has continued to climb since typhoon In-fa in December.
#2 We are in typhoon season.
#3 That very large system is in the typhoon trough.

This morning when I got up I checked JTWC...still no hint of problems.

So I went to Guam NOAA site. Still no cyclone alert. HOWEVER Guam at 6 am this morning issued small craft advisories!

Even my big trimaran at 65ft is considered small craft.

Another big downside of only looking at JTWC is not being able to see a new satellite image until 2pm.

Therefore, go to the Guam site at:

National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Local Hazards

You can look at a current satellite view in infrared. That is the second photo.

[pbmaise]

Belay!!!

Today I was expecting to see this huge storm shown on the IR image to move and couldn't figure out why IR satellite images were so different. Surely JTWC could see that huge system in that second photo in my post??

Well guess what? All "current" satellite data on NOAA is days old. The GOES Infared Satellite data is down. I was looking at old data.
That is why they were not concerned by yesterday's visual image.

Latest visual, which came out today at 2pm local Manila time, looks mostly okay. Yesterday's big system doesn't look as intense.

Note: If the IR satellite is down, JTWC no longer has their best tool to spot a cyclone forming.

I feel like Jane Curtain on Saturday Night Live, or was that Gilda Radner?

[pbmaise]

Hang on.
It reformed and looks a whole lot worse and still may become a typhoon.

In fact it sure looks like it even without the GOES IR satellite to look at.

[pbmaise]

Okay alert ALERT

If you are in Palau or Southern Philippines

This is spinning slowly and can be seen already by the Philippine satellites located at:

PAGASA-DOST

It takes a long time to load if you look on a mobile phone.

Current position is 7.4 North 144 E.

A little early to say likely path, however my guess is across Palau, then Mindanao followed by Palawan.

Palau you have maybe two days to prepare, however, likely it won't be too bad.
Mindanao maybe 4 full days to prepare.

Sea temperature in area is 29-30 C.

How big this will get I dont know.

However, again you can see for yourself it is already spinning and growing larger.

[jimbunyard]

There's a three day loop here:

Rutgers Weather Center New Brunswick NJ

that might be interesting to you. The northern hemisphere circulation seems to me to be a bit too active for anything major to form, but I'm just guessing.

Unfortunately there are no controls for the loop, at least as I access it, but to me it's still rather informative.

You say it correctly though, a 'small' craft advisory (or lack thereof) can mean a lot of things...

[pbmaise]

Jim, Thanks for suggestion. No satellite images of the Philippines there.
Tonight the JTWC site is down.
The GOES-13 IR Satellite is still off-line.
The IR satellite for the Philippines is also off-line and most likely is using the same satellite. Here is the last image for the day for the visible taken off the Philippine website.

We are now blind till tomorrow morning. As it gets closer to Palau we may be able to get a radar image.

This is a really cool site at https://www.windyty.com/?3.513,134.011,5
You can see from this site that there is no chance this will go North.
Either it forms and will head into Philippines, or the wind will push it South and it will not form. Right.

[pbmaise]

Here is a view on Windyty

[pbmaise]

Well it is night here in Philippines and without IR satellite images all we have to look at are models.

NOGAPS appears to be what many sailors are using. Here is a link.
To the 7 day forecast. This model clearly show the typhoon forming. Not a guarantee. But it seems certain this will be a typhoon and the name will be Noynoy(sp?)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nog...00_tpw_168.gif


Main page for NOGAPS

weathergaines.blogspot.co.ke/2011/09/nogaps-model-forecast.html?m=1

One other page that can be watched is the airport on Palau as this moves closer. They update ever one or two hours.


w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PTRO.html

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Jim, Thanks for suggestion. No satellite images of the Philippines there.
Tonight the JTWC site is down.
The GOES-13 IR Satellite is still off-line.
The IR satellite for the Philippines is also off-line and most likely is using the same satellite. Here is the last image for the day for the visible taken off the Philippine website.

We are now blind till tomorrow morning. As it gets closer to Palau we may be able to get a radar image.

This is a really cool site at https://www.windyty.com/?3.513,134.011,5
You can see from this site that there is no chance this will go North.
Either it forms and will head into Philippines, or the wind will push it South and it will not form. Right.

Certainly there are, unless yours loads differently than mine. The loop shows the entire Northern Hemisphere, from about 5 degrees south of the equator.

Here it is loaded again in case of an error.



The Philippines are located in the upper left corner of the image.
The storm is located to the south-southwest of the Mariana's Islands, (just below the Philippines in the image) and appears to be headed due west or maybe a little southwest (generally up, or up and a little to the left) in the image. As of about 0600 UTC this morning, the system also appears to be spreading out and disorganizing a little, but that, of course, is a highly subjective opinion.

[pbmaise]

Thanks Jim, Now I see it.

Here is latest from JWTC .. When there site actually loads!!! Yesterday afternoon it wouldnt load even at internet shop. Aarrrg.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 101229Z ASCAT PASS AND A 101546Z RSCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT AND RSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WITH MUCH LIGHTER 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

***********
Yesterday I stopped in person at the Palawan Civil Defense. I met Jose and was very impressed. He too has already been tracking this using NOGAPS. He was unaware the GOES-13 IR satellite was down. I showed him Windyty and directed him to this site. He was surprised to know there were others tracking what goes on in the Paciific 1500 nautical miles away as much as himself.

[pbmaise]

The internaional name for this likely cyclone is Melor
The Philippines will call it Nonoy



Next image comes out in 6 hours.

The following areas should be on high alert
(My opinions)

Palau, Samal-Davao, Bohol, Bonbonon, Cebu, Borocay, Palawan

Middle alert to Puerto Galera

Low alert Subic

I am really not impressed with NOAA that still shows images outdated,
JWTC that doesn't tell people they lost their number 1 satellite to track cyclones,
JWTC site that goes down
Not being able to see real time
Forecast in Palau that still doesnt even tell anyone this system is about to become a typhoon.

Please tell other sailors in the area especially if in remote anchorages

[pbmaise]

Note: I might as well raise the second alert too. Look out near 160 East and 5 degees North. It doesnt look to bad in the JWTC view above, however, it is fairly clear this is already a LLCC.

See:

Rutgers Weather Center New Brunswick NJ

We may very well have two typhoons this December in the Philippines to finish the year.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Note: I might as well raise the second alert too. Look out near 160 East and 5 degees North. It doesnt look to bad in the JWTC view above, however, it is fairly clear this is already a LLCC.

See:

Rutgers Weather Center New Brunswick NJ

We may very well have two typhoons this December in the Philippines to finish the year.

Yeah, I was just looking at it.

The Japan Meteorological Agency,

Japan Meteorological Agency | Tropical Cyclone Information (click on 'services' to get to satellite imagery)

is calling the first one a tropical depression at this time, a static image is available here;

JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

At this moment, it looks rather impressive, and seems likely to strengthen.

The link above also has loops up to 23 hours long in 10 minutes intervals, which take a bit to load, but are very good.

What a difference 12 hours makes.....

[pbmaise]

What a bunch of ....... at NOAA and JTWC!!

#1 They fail to tell you their main satellite is down.
#2 They fail to direct you to. JMA (Thanks Jim for link)
#3 Their site is down or wont feed for hours per day.
#4 They post just one or at most two images per day.

Then when they finally circle what is plainly a cyclone developing they mark it LOW chance within 24 hours.

Then upgrade to MEDIUM chance just 8 hours later.

Then announce a formation alert a mere 16 hours later.

It seems like they always want to under claim. That way they are not alarmist.

Well JTWC what a piss poor report today. We know it is a bloody typhoon.
Duh..

What we want to know is where is it going and when.

Where is the track???

Someone on vacation??

Grrrrrr.

Okay I am done with my rant. Here is their report.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1N 140.0E TO 10.9N 133.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

[pbmaise]

Image Friday December 11