Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 14-12-2015, 23:22   #46
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Still no typhoon warnings for Yap, Palau, or Guam. The latest report is now out and simply lists a high chance for formation and no alarms are being issued until one forms for certain.
Note: They indicate no other suspect areas than the one near Palau. However, obviously they can't see. The third LLCC is right now just below Majuro at about 3 degrees. It is far enough from the one near Palau to form with no problem. Whether it forms and reaches the Philippines is unknown for now.

Here is what it looks like on windyty.com
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	windyty december 15.JPG
Views:	56
Size:	64.5 KB
ID:	115077  
__________________

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-12-2015, 23:42   #47
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

This the new typhoon forming that will be called Nepartak (Onyok)
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	December 15 2015 1420 jp.jpg
Views:	52
Size:	121.7 KB
ID:	115078  
__________________

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-12-2015, 03:39   #48
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

There is a new track issued however if you are in Puerto Galera you probably already know it sure looks right in line with you. Any reports from the fleet on those mornings?
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-12-2015, 06:46   #49
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,889
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
OMG!!!!
The latest track indicates Nona has gotten far stronger.
It is not unusual when a Typhoon exits Verde Pass, that it collides with the enhanced NE wind, funneling down the West coast of Luzon, thus showing a marked increase in wind strength.
Luckily it is usually a short lived boost
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	1450187175380.jpg
Views:	42
Size:	79.9 KB
ID:	115088  
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-12-2015, 15:18   #50
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,889
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

11pm local time track

Local TV are now showing it NOT turning SW but continuing more Westward

Just heavy rain bands and gusts in Subic this morning as eye enters SCS
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	1450217882480.jpg
Views:	45
Size:	80.1 KB
ID:	115107  
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-12-2015, 15:44   #51
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Morning view of two typhoons. Melor (Nona) headed out and one forming.
Time stamp 6:30 am December 16 2015

Any fleet report from Puerto Galera? We are all worried about you.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	0000-15E3%3APictures%2FStorms%2FDecember%2016%202015%200630%20jp.jpg
Views:	55
Size:	154.5 KB
ID:	115111  
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15-12-2015, 17:59   #52
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

In the past two hours notice how much Nepartak (Onyok) has expanded. It is still not a typhoon and other than a formation warning no new warnings or possible track has been issued.

NOGAPS doesnt show this becoming a typhoon.

Time stamp on this image is 8:40 am December 16, 2015
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	0000-15E3%3APictures%2FStorms%2FDecember%2016%202015%200840%20jp.jpg
Views:	48
Size:	159.6 KB
ID:	115114  
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16-12-2015, 02:52   #53
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

JTWC claims eye is forming East of Palau however look at image and fact winds for past three hours at airport in Palau are from SW. Those winds are only possible if eye is to the NW of Palau which matches images. Time stamp 17:20 December 16, 2015
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	0000-15E3%3APictures%2FStorms%2FDecember%2016%202015%201720%20jp.jpg
Views:	40
Size:	160.9 KB
ID:	115128  
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16-12-2015, 03:18   #54
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

PAGASA has a track for typhoon Onyok

As I feared it is right into Mindanao, across the Sulu Sea and into Palawan. Track now shows land fall South of Puerto Princesa Saturday morning. Good thing I am not sailing the Sulu Sea on a SCUBA trip.

http://www.mb.com.ph/wp-content/uplo...ok-Dec-161.png
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16-12-2015, 18:22   #55
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

The Guam track for Onyok looks so much safer than the PAGASA track of last night. However, the satellite view looks more threatening. Time stamp December 17 0910 AM. Despite what the Guam tack shows this morning I still recommend anyone in Samal or Puerto Princesa to get ready for weather.

The winds at Palau's airport always stayed SW so the typhoon never formed East of Palau and was NW of Palau as it appeared in photos yesterday. What they were looking at I don't know. Windyty showed it forming South of Palau and were wrong too.

The LLCC that was South of Majuro was pushed below the equator. There is now a different LLCC out near 160 E, however, it is likely too close to the equator to be a problem. It shows on Windyty.

So it looks like Onyok may be the last typhoon of 2015 Season.

Good thing the season doesn't begin again till January 2016.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Onyok-Dec-161.png
Views:	52
Size:	256.9 KB
ID:	115153   Click image for larger version

Name:	Guam track.jpg
Views:	56
Size:	257.1 KB
ID:	115154  

Click image for larger version

Name:	December 17 2015 0910 jp.jpg
Views:	50
Size:	151.0 KB
ID:	115155  
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16-12-2015, 18:53   #56
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

The 5 a.m track from PAGASA still shows Onyok going through Northern Mindanao and then into Palawan. So there is quite a disagreement with JTWC.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Pagasa onyo-melor-track.png
Views:	41
Size:	159.0 KB
ID:	115156  
__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16-12-2015, 19:08   #57
Marine Service Provider
 
pbmaise's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Pahoa Hawaii
Boat: Jay Kantola - Trimaran 65 ft by 40 ft beam
Posts: 579
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Melor (Nona) prediction was only 180 degrees wrong. After passing Mindoro all tracks had it moving fast to the SW. Instead Nona continued NE. Tomorrow, the position predicted is only about 1000 nm away from the actual position. I think these models need some work.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Nona predicted20151215063219.png
Views:	59
Size:	202.1 KB
ID:	115158   Click image for larger version

Name:	nona_15121612-620x479.png
Views:	58
Size:	199.7 KB
ID:	115159  

__________________
pbmaise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 17-12-2015, 16:23   #58
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,889
Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

That is not unusual with these kinds d of irregular Typhoons as once it interacts with other cold systems and dissipates to a Low pressure, the upper levels can take it anywhere.

Here is the final Typhoon 2000
that is quite different from previous
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	1450394619494.jpg
Views:	44
Size:	78.1 KB
ID:	115205  
__________________

__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
Philippines

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Typhoon In-fa tracks towards Philippines November 2015 pbmaise Pacific & South China Sea 24 21-11-2015 02:56
typhoon-free marina/boatyard in the Philippines lucseawalker Marinas 0 25-11-2013 19:53
Super typhoon in November in Philippines area Gpolar General Sailing Forum 0 08-11-2013 18:05
Crew Wanted: Borneo (Malaysia or Brunei) to Philippines (Cebu) October returning December 2012 pbmaise Crew Archives 5 24-11-2012 14:29
Crew Available: Philippines - December and January trevordean Crew Archives 1 02-09-2011 15:21



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 17:59.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.