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Old 14-12-2015, 02:53   #31
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Here is the latest track. Melor (Nona) made land fall as a Category 4 Typhoon but not a super typhoon.

That said the track is right near Puerto Galera and wind may still contain gusts 60-100 knots.
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Old 14-12-2015, 13:05   #32
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Note: Melor (Nona) is moving Westward faster than expected and will still impact Puerto Galera with high wind gusts. Highest gusts have dropped only a little according to this JWTC track.

The second image is of the second typhoon brewing East of Palau. Notice how large it has grown in past few hours and it looks like it has come up a degree where it is more likely to spin faster.

The GFS model shows this becoming a typhoon within 1 to 2 days.

It is this typhoon which may be more trouble.
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Old 14-12-2015, 14:38   #33
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Monday morning updated track

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/activetrack.png
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Old 14-12-2015, 16:38   #34
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Lame braines at JWTC issued this statement now about the second possible typhoon I have been staring at for days

A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 144.8E TO 6.5N 137.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

Hello people! Do you not see how close this already is to Palau and that the airport as gusts of 22mph? It looks like in this image an eye has already formed.

There is still no alert for Palau or alert issued on Guam.

If you know someone on Palau you might give them a ring.
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Old 14-12-2015, 17:03   #35
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

If you want to see this typhoon just West of Palau grow check here

JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

Press refresh on browser then the play button. Keep pushing play if no image comes up.
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Old 14-12-2015, 17:11   #36
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Now dont mind me and the giant cloud with an eye just to your East.
Have a read of the marine forecast for Palau

Sorry attachment doesnt work

Forecast reads

5-15 knots Tuesday partly cloudy
10-20 knots Wednesday isolotate thunderstorm
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Old 14-12-2015, 17:40   #37
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Latest track for Melor (Nona) in Puerto Galera
ETA shifted back to around noonish winds still up near 100 knots

I hope no one has canvas hanging on their masts, or wind generator blades on,
also tie down solars
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Old 14-12-2015, 17:41   #38
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Latest track for Melor (Nona) in Puerto Galera
ETA shifted back to around noonish winds still up near 100 knots open water

I hope no one has canvas hanging on their masts, or wind generator blades on,
also tie down solars
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Old 14-12-2015, 17:55   #39
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Problem Loading
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Old 14-12-2015, 18:10   #40
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Position now local time
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Old 14-12-2015, 18:11   #41
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

The eye of Nona about to land on Mindoro Island time 8:50 am
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Old 14-12-2015, 21:53   #42
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

This is quite a strange track.....but we are getting lots of much needed rain in Subic.
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Old 14-12-2015, 22:03   #43
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Time stamp 12:40 pm eye of Nona is still inching along Mindoro towards Puerto Galera
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Old 14-12-2015, 22:08   #44
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

OMG!!!!
The latest track indicates Nona has gotten far stronger.

WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 121.8E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 121.8E ---

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.2N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER
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Old 14-12-2015, 23:10   #45
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

The best I can guess at this point is Puerto Galera will just barely get the edge of the 64 knot winds. However, they may be more. Anyone there among all these yachts seen in this view?
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