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Old 11-12-2015, 04:43   #16
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

I apologize for my earlier rant. Today I put off a great SCUBA trip and sail into the Sulu sea because of this system. I was expecting a storm track today to confirm a path. Perhaps today was the Holiday Party?

Anyway NOGAPS has a seven day projection showing the system is going to basically park and slowly grow bigger and bigger. This is projected size and position for December 18th, 2015.

Has anyone seen a system park like this before, or am I reading NOGAPS incorrectly?

http://weathergaines.blogspot.co.ke/...ecast.html?m=1
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Old 11-12-2015, 05:27   #17
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Okay, now I see.

The system shown on December 18 forecast is a different system.

If you look at each NOGAPS forecast day by day instead of jumping ahead to day 7, you can see NOGAPS predicts the current system over Palau will track to the North and then go right over Luzon.

So by the NOGAPS forecast Palawan and Sulu Sea are in the clear for now.

Subic you may get something from this one.

Palau you will be hit by something more sIzeable according to NOGAPS around December 18th. Then where this system goes from there is unkown Perhaps again to Luzon? Perhaps across Sulu Sea.
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Old 11-12-2015, 23:45   #18
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Finally a track.

Notes: From the Guam website not JTWC.

NOGAPS shows a system building that will be larger than this one.
JTWC has yet to indicate that system is suspect despite fact NOGAPS
predicts it will become a cyclone

The Philippine president is named Noynoy so at last second they elected to not call the current cyclone Nonoy. They picked Noona for this one.

This business of giving all cyclones that hit Philippines two names we must carry around between (......) is pretty lame.
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Old 12-12-2015, 17:56   #19
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Here is a good view of the two systems from Sunday morning.

Top left is typhoon Melor (Nona) now headed towards Puerto Galera.

The system to the right of Palau is the one I am concerned about.

Yesterday NOGAPS showed this building into a typhoon as it hit Palau on December 18/19

Today NOGAPS appears to think there is more interaction between the two. It appears Melor is stealing from the other system and accelerating it West.

NOGAPS now predicts it moving over Palau around 15/16th as a minor system.

After this it will hit Mindanao around 18/19th
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Old 12-12-2015, 18:14   #20
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Here is the latest NOGAPS for December 18th.

Contrast this one with the previous NOGAPS

Instead of a strong red over Palau, there is only a very small LLCC just East of Mindanao.
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Old 12-12-2015, 23:48   #21
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Here is the projection at 3 pm for Tuesday.
Notice two systems one is right near Puerto Galera
The other is right near Palau.

Windyty projections show the one near Palau heading in roughly the same track as the current typhoon Melor (Nona). However, windyty shows it losing strength as it goes North.
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Old 13-12-2015, 05:22   #22
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Quote:
Originally Posted by pbmaise View Post
Here is the projection at 3 pm for Tuesday.
Notice two systems one is right near Puerto Galera
The other is right near Palau.

Windyty projections show the one near Palau heading in roughly the same track as the current typhoon Melor (Nona). However, windyty shows it losing strength as it goes North.
Indeed, we are paying close attention to this situation, although at least two captains I know will be headed south from Subic, off the west coast of LUZON to Coron or to Palawan on or before the 20th. Truly, there seems a threat to any yacht planning to be on the East side or due North of Luzon from now to the 16th or so.

Thank you for your posts.

G2L
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Old 13-12-2015, 15:20   #23
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

The JTWC has finally recognized the LLCC that is SE of Palau.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK LLCC TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS

Cylcone Melor has accelerated away from this low. Last night I was watching heavy thunderstorms South of the equator. These were helping to keep the system drawn tight down near the equator.

The projection for Melor (Nona) is to head south after Puerto Galera. This will place a low on the West side of Palawan and draw this new typhoon towards Mindano and across the Sulu sea.

WARNING: In December 2012 typhoon Bopha (Pablo) made a similar track South of Palau then slammed into Mindanao. After Mindanao it reintensified in the Sulu Sea before slamming into Palawan.

NOGAPS must be looking at a model that thinks it will not develope since they show a tiny system barely touching Mindanao.

Since one model says this will become a typhoon, and there is a history of reintensification across the Sulu Sea:

1. I am likely not going scuba diving tomorrow at Tubattaha
2. I am recommending Samal, Bonbonon Bohol, Cebu, Borocay, and Palawan be on alert.
3. Puerto Galera you should be on alert for current typhoon Melor (Nona), although it is so small this typhoon is only a bring in the laundry alert.
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Old 13-12-2015, 18:14   #24
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Ooops

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone2long View Post
Indeed, we are paying close attention to this situation, although at least two captains I know will be headed south from Subic, off the west coast of LUZON to Coron or to Palawan on or before the 20th. Truly, there seems a threat to any yacht planning to be on the East side or due North of Luzon from now to the 16th or so.

Thank you for your posts.

G2L
I meant, due North of Mindoro.
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Old 13-12-2015, 18:21   #25
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Note: We are just so used to huge typhoons that even though Melor (Nona) is small, I shouldn't joke about merely bringing in laundry. Currently wind gusts are 135 knots (250 km/h) and wave heights are 38 feet. This typhoon will be almost that intense when making first landfall and certainly will cause a lot of damage and possible loss of life. If you are in the path prepare, head to high ground, find secure building to shelter.
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Old 13-12-2015, 20:17   #26
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Latest track issued local time Monday morning the 14th December at 10 am
The system SE of Palau was upgraded to medium.
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Old 13-12-2015, 20:50   #27
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Note: In my opinion JTWC continues to be the wrong information source to watch.

I was able to spot this typhoon and warned everyone here 4 full days before JTWC.

Why?

I am more keyed into what MAY become a problem.
JTWC is more concerned about their image and not raising a false alarm.

You can see how much work this can be with many different sites to check, satellite feeds that take a long time to load, and misinformation with wrong satellite images posted.

Then we have JTWC in Zulu time and Knots
Guam is in local time and MPH.

The Philippines is a nusiance with separate names to be carried along and that can change even after published.

Where was I,

Oh. yes. Thank you for the JMA satellite site Jim I.can finally see again after sunset since they have a working IR view.
Thank you for ignoring my rants.

It is a small wonder a very busy captain can set off from Hong Kong earlier this year right into a typhoon. Clearly, the JTWC is not what the sailing community should be using as a primary source.

I have been watching this system SE of Palau that killed my SCUBA trip. Is it likely to be a typhoon this coming weekend within the Sulu Sea?

Perhaps.

And that is the whole point isnt it?

We need to know where a typhoon will perhaps be.

So JWTC come off your high horses and alert us with probabilities.
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Old 13-12-2015, 22:00   #28
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Note: Looking at Guam is now zero good. Since the first typhoon is out of their range, and the new typhoon brewing SE of Palau isnt a cyclone yet, they now report NO CYCLONE ALERT

The Philippine website is called PAGASA it is no good either. Despite having an active typhoon all they report is past position and give a very rough idea of path. There is no projected path other than statements like on December 19 it will be 200 km West of Palawan.

So only projected path to use at this point is JTWC with Zulu time.
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Old 13-12-2015, 23:04   #29
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

Typhoon 2000 shows their Track http://www.typhoon2000.ph/activetrack.png
It certainly is going to screw up your Sulu trip
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Old 14-12-2015, 01:51   #30
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Re: Alert December Typhoon Philippines

What a great track. I have not seen it before. Thanks Pelagic.

Here is a view of Melor. (Nona) as it just entered into the Islands.

As odd as it may sound, this typhoon is not the reason we cancelled our SCUBA trip in the Sulu Sea. I am staring at the potential typhoon that is still SE of Palau. It is that system if it becomes a typhoon that will be drawn by the low pressure created by Melor. My concern is that this second typhoon may come right across the Sulu Sea.

Tonight now that the influence of Melor is farther removed, I am expecting to see that system SE of Palau expand quickly. A strong line of thunderstorms are both feeding it and helping to keep it tight to the equator. A potential third LLCC is 600 nm to the East. If all three develop into typhoons the 2015 typhoon season would end with three direct December hits on the Philippines.

But remember there is no such thing as global warming.
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