2016 Typhoon Season: Strange so far

[pbmaise]

Last year by this time the Southwest Pacific area suffered 10 storms ranging from tropical depressions up to a Cat 5 super typhoon that damaged 80-90% of homes on Chuuk. Further a February super typhoon was the most intense February typhoon since 1970.

The number 10 was actually not that odd. I checked records and found over the last 10 years, the average was around 10. The year 2010 was an outlying year with just 4.

Have you been watching anxiously this year? After all, all the experts keep saying global warming will cause more frequent and intense storms.

So what is this year's number so far? Brace yourself! It is one. One small tropical depression in the South China Sea.

Granted the "Season" starts in June and 2016 may indeed finish with more frequent and more intense storms.

However, does anyone have a theory as to why the Southwestern Pacific has been so quiet early this year?

Data Source Typical
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016...typhoon_season

[44'cruisingcat]

For the 2015/16 cyclone season in Aus we had ZERO cyclones cross the Queensland coast. I think the average is something around 5.

[StuM]

End of of big El Niño with higher pressures in Western Pacific so less likelihood of deep lows developing?

Similar conditions to 1997/1998 when the end of the big El Niño also resulted in a very weak season in 1998.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_P...typhoon_season

[StuM]

Not so much the higher pressures, apparently. More to do with vertical wind shear:

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - During El Nino events (ENSO warm phase), tropospheric vertical shear is increased inhibiting tropical cyclone genesis and intensification, primarily by causing the 200 mb (12 km or 8 mi) westerly winds to be stronger (Gray 1984). La Nina events (ENSO cold phase) enhances activity. Recently, Tang and Neelin (2004) also identified that changes to the moist static stability can also contribute toward hurricane changes due to ENSO, with a drier, more stable environment present during El Nino events.
Reference: Tang, B. H., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: ENSO Influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming. Geophys. Res. Lett.: Vol 31, L24204. "
The Australian/Southwest Pacific shows a pronounced shift back and forth of tropical cyclone activity with fewer tropical cyclones between 145° and 165°E and more from 165°E eastward across the South Pacific during El Nino (warm ENSO) events. There is also a smaller tendency to have the tropical cyclones originate a bit closer to the equator. The opposite would be true in La Nina (cold ENSO) events. See papers by Nicholls (1979), Revell and Goulter (1986), Dong (1988), and Nicholls (1992).

[Reefmagnet]

Fingers crossed La Nina isn't going to even up the averages down here next season!

[pbmaise]

I caught a new term to look up for my weather vocabulary:

Vertical wind shear is a change in
wind speed or direction with change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with change in lateral position for a given altitude.

[pbmaise]

Another term, this one completely new to me I encountered is LASPE RATE.

The lapse rate is defined as the rate at which atmospheric temperature decreases with an increase in altitude. The terminology arises from the word lapse in the sense of a decrease or decline. It is most often applied to Earth's troposphere.

If the temperature gradient (laspe rate) is strong enough, temperature advection will increase, driving more vertical motion. This increases the overall strength of the system. Shearwise updrafts are the most important factor in determining cyclonic growth and strength.

Translation: It is important to have cold air at a low altitude above the warm water. This drives large volumes of air to quickly travel upward.

When the moisture condenses at low altitude it releases the latent heat of evaporation and this is the energy said to feed the cyclone.

When air is warm above warm water there is no condensation until very high in the atmosphere. At some point the condensation occurs too high up for the feedback loop to begin.

Therefore it is my conclusion that a lack of storms isn't a sign that the Pacific water is suddenly much colder. Instead it is more likely the air temperature above the water is higher and LASPE RATE is low.

We as sailors know to recognize a high LASPE RATE. Very low heavy dark clouds is a good indication of trouble.

[knockabout]

sssshhhh enjoy the season

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

For the 2015/16 cyclone season in Aus we had ZERO cyclones cross the Queensland coast. I think the average is something around 5.

There also was only one on the west coast.

There was one developed up near the Solomon's and headed S Easterly over the Coral Sea but dissipated in the northern Tasman.

I think the theory is that the lower incidence is related to cooler sea surface temperatures in El Nino years.

[pbmaise]

Finally a news article about what is so evident to us.

Record tropical cyclone drought nearing 200 days across northwest Pacific Ocean
July 2, 2016; 1:53 PM ET
A record was set in the tropical northwestern Pacific Ocean as the basin entered its longest stretch of time without a named tropical cyclone - a streak that is likely to end this coming week.

PS Raymond you mean La Nina. Those are the cooler years.

[pbmaise]

Currently it is neither El Nino nor La Nina

Instead we are ENSO-Neutral

Bet you don't know that term.

ENSO. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation are related, the two terms are often combined into a single phrase, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

According to climate predictions there is a 75% chance that La Nina will arrive Fall 2016.


ENSO Neutral
During ENSO neutral conditions, surface trade winds blow westward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Blowing against the ocean’s surface, these winds result in a westward current.


El Niño
During El Niño conditions, the usually present east to west winds weaken and an anomalous west to east flow develops. The west to east flow drives warm equatorial waters from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific and northern South America.


La Niña
During La Nina conditions, the east to west flow present during neutral conditions is intensified.

[pbmaise]

The reason the streak of clear is expected to end......

186 NM South of Guam


FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 144.5E TO 9.5N 142.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

[pbmaise]

Time to update your storm monitoring links

This great photo of the first 2016 typhoon is from the NOAA website:

See: Tropical West Pacific Imagery - Satellite Products and Services Division/Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Select single image RGB for a quick easy to view image. I need to wait for the once or twice per day JTWC image.

Speaking of Joint Typhoon Warning Center, be sure you deleted old bookmark and use new page

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/JTWC/

[PatMc57]

I live in the Northeast US. Some Climatologists have predicted a severe
dip in the Jet Stream to occur more regularly in exactly my locale. This has happened for a few years now and has been called a Polar Vortex. Many of my neighbors have used this to say "What Global Warming?..It's as cold as Heck here!". Climate change is different for everyone everywhere.
Here's my point...Climate models, while hanging on to some reliable facts of planetary dynamics, have become, more and more, unpredictable. Established computer models...which are based mainly on historical data...are becoming ineffective by the very nature of unreliable raw data.
Why is the Pacific different than normal?...There is a decreasing "normal".

[robert sailor]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Another term, this one completely new to me I encountered is LASPE RATE.

The lapse rate is defined as the rate at which atmospheric temperature decreases with an increase in altitude. The terminology arises from the word lapse in the sense of a decrease or decline. It is most often applied to Earth's troposphere.

If the temperature gradient (laspe rate) is strong enough, temperature advection will increase, driving more vertical motion. This increases the overall strength of the system. Shearwise updrafts are the most important factor in determining cyclonic growth and strength.

Translation: It is important to have cold air at a low altitude above the warm water. This drives large volumes of air to quickly travel upward.

When the moisture condenses at low altitude it releases the latent heat of evaporation and this is the energy said to feed the cyclone.

When air is warm above warm water there is no condensation until very high in the atmosphere. At some point the condensation occurs too high up for the feedback loop to begin.

Therefore it is my conclusion that a lack of storms isn't a sign that the Pacific water is suddenly much colder. Instead it is more likely the air temperature above the water is higher and LASPE RATE is low.

We as sailors know to recognize a high LASPE RATE. Very low heavy dark clouds is a good indication of trouble.

I am a pilot and we refereed to this as the adiabatic rate.