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Old 04-07-2016, 14:17   #16
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Re: Winds of the Earth - Website

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Are you saying that windyty or earth.nullschool site have forecast human touch? I don't think so. They are both just visualizations of GRIB data.
Isn't GRIB historical or at best, real-time data? If there is no human touch I guess there must be some seriously good programming in Nullschool that results in the level of forecasting accuracy displayed on the site. If what you say is correct (and it may well be) then it's evidence that the human touch is not that great. As I said, for me, the Nullschool site is consistently better at forecasting than the NZ Metservice forecasts.

Can't comment on windyty, have never used it.
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Old 04-07-2016, 14:37   #17
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Re: Winds of the Earth - Website

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Originally Posted by Omatako View Post
Isn't GRIB historical or at best, real-time data? If there is no human touch I guess there must be some seriously good programming in Nullschool that results in the level of forecasting accuracy displayed on the site. If what you say is correct (and it may well be) then it's evidence that the human touch is not that great. As I said, for me, the Nullschool site is consistently better at forecasting than the NZ Metservice forecasts.

Can't comment on windyty, have never used it.
To my knowledge all these sites are using standard GRIB forecast models which are computer models only. You can download the GRIB files or you can use any number of the other sites that use the same information and present it in different ways. your choice but I am not aware of any of these freebees that has any human touch other than a button or two. The Met guys also use the GRIB files but many of them have very personal knowledge of certain areas that the GRIBs never or rarely pick up and that will be included in their forecast. The reality is forecasting is getting better but its not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination so in reality you get to pick the weather on the day you leave and have a reasonable chance of being right for a couple of days after but thats it. Many sailors think that with modern forecasting they will always know whats coming, they are in fact right most of the time but in your case you missed, it happens.
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Old 04-07-2016, 15:50   #18
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Re: Winds of the Earth - Website

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omatako View Post
Isn't GRIB historical or at best, real-time data? If there is no human touch I guess there must be some seriously good programming in Nullschool that results in the level of forecasting accuracy displayed on the site. If what you say is correct (and it may well be) then it's evidence that the human touch is not that great. As I said, for me, the Nullschool site is consistently better at forecasting than the NZ Metservice forecasts.

Can't comment on windyty, have never used it.
GRIBs are purely computer models. They are fed current data, then model the future. The models are run multiple times per day. They are often fairly accurate for the first few prediction days, then get to be pretty unreliable as they extend beyond the initial days.
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