Originally Posted by TacomaSailor
BajaHaHa is currently in Turtle Bay with about 150 boats - many of them quite new to ocean sailing and remote anchoring
. The HaHa is scheduled to leave Turtle Bay on Saturday Nov 2 - Will they move on to Santa Maria?
The HaHa is scheduled to leave Bahia Santa Maria on Wednesday the 6th for the 36 - 48 hour run down to Cabo San Lucas.
National Weather Service
(NHC) shows a tropical storm or depression (TD-18E) moving N and then NE just south of Cabo San Lucas late Sunday or early Monday - Nov 3 or 4. NHC gives a 53% probability of winds from 35 to 73 knots for Sunday afternoon and 28% for Monday afternoon. At Cabo those winds would be onshore under most scenarios.
By the morning of the 5th TD-18E is supposed to be well inland in the desert mountains of Sonora.
As of 0300UTC Nov2 - NHC puts Bahia Santa Maria well within the 'cone of uncertainty' and therefore under risk for a Tropical Storm.
In September 2003 my boat, with me single
handing, was caught by a hurricane in the far north of the Sea of Cortez
after playing the NHC odds, probabilities, and wind directions. NHC had forecast almost exactly the same heading as for TD-18E - after it was too late to move to a safer location NHC suddenly changed the location and heading of Hurricane Marty. About 4 AM Hurricane Marty over ran my boat and four others. One boat was holed and lost
and mine was beached with minor damage.
For the 20 hours before that storm hit us it had moved on a course of about 314 M while NHC predicted and reported 355 M. Just 12 hours before hitting us Marty was forecast to go ashore into the Sonoran desert - 125 miles SE of us with 35 knot wind extending only 50 miles from the center. Twelve hours later it was on top of us with 65 knot winds and 15 foot seas. It then stalled and sat on top of us for 12 hours then went NNW - about 45 degrees to it's forecast track.
Forecasting and tracking in the east Pacific seems much more error prone than the Atlantic, Caribbean
, and Gulf of Mexico
Would you leave Turtle Bay and make the 40 hour run down to Santa Maria?
I wouldn't knowingly sail in the direction of any kind of active depression or TC system, so the answer is "he!! no".
But then I've lived with them for many decades, Californians may not have the same perspective and familiarity with Momma 'Cane.
In the event of a casualty, most any insurance
company will have some questions at minimum.
NHC is hedging:
WTPZ43 KNHC 020239
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI
800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 125W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS AND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
EASTERLY SHEAR OF 15-20 KT IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE POOR
STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 28C...AND THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI "