Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 01-11-2013, 21:38   #1
Registered User
 
TacomaSailor's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Burnt Store Marina, SW Florida
Boat: Caliber 40
Posts: 1,148
Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

BajaHaHa is currently in Turtle Bay with about 150 boats - many of them quite new to ocean sailing and remote anchoring. The HaHa is scheduled to leave Turtle Bay on Saturday Nov 2 - Will they move on to Santa Maria?

The HaHa is scheduled to leave Bahia Santa Maria on Wednesday the 6th for the 36 - 48 hour run down to Cabo San Lucas.

National Weather Service (NHC) shows a tropical storm or depression (TD-18E) moving N and then NE just south of Cabo San Lucas late Sunday or early Monday - Nov 3 or 4. NHC gives a 53% probability of winds from 35 to 73 knots for Sunday afternoon and 28% for Monday afternoon. At Cabo those winds would be onshore under most scenarios.

By the morning of the 5th TD-18E is supposed to be well inland in the desert mountains of Sonora.

As of 0300UTC Nov2 - NHC puts Bahia Santa Maria well within the 'cone of uncertainty' and therefore under risk for a Tropical Storm.

In September 2003 my boat, with me single handing, was caught by a hurricane in the far north of the Sea of Cortez after playing the NHC odds, probabilities, and wind directions. NHC had forecast almost exactly the same heading as for TD-18E - after it was too late to move to a safer location NHC suddenly changed the location and heading of Hurricane Marty. About 4 AM Hurricane Marty over ran my boat and four others. One boat was holed and lost and mine was beached with minor damage.

For the 20 hours before that storm hit us it had moved on a course of about 314 M while NHC predicted and reported 355 M. Just 12 hours before hitting us Marty was forecast to go ashore into the Sonoran desert - 125 miles SE of us with 35 knot wind extending only 50 miles from the center. Twelve hours later it was on top of us with 65 knot winds and 15 foot seas. It then stalled and sat on top of us for 12 hours then went NNW - about 45 degrees to it's forecast track.

Forecasting and tracking in the east Pacific seems much more error prone than the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

Would you leave Turtle Bay and make the 40 hour run down to Santa Maria?
__________________

__________________
TacomaSailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 22:37   #2
Registered User
 
Tx J's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: South Texas
Boat: Newport 28 & Robalo 20
Posts: 363
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TacomaSailor View Post
BajaHaHa is currently in Turtle Bay with about 150 boats - many of them quite new to ocean sailing and remote anchoring. The HaHa is scheduled to leave Turtle Bay on Saturday Nov 2 - Will they move on to Santa Maria?

The HaHa is scheduled to leave Bahia Santa Maria on Wednesday the 6th for the 36 - 48 hour run down to Cabo San Lucas.

National Weather Service (NHC) shows a tropical storm or depression (TD-18E) moving N and then NE just south of Cabo San Lucas late Sunday or early Monday - Nov 3 or 4. NHC gives a 53% probability of winds from 35 to 73 knots for Sunday afternoon and 28% for Monday afternoon. At Cabo those winds would be onshore under most scenarios.

By the morning of the 5th TD-18E is supposed to be well inland in the desert mountains of Sonora.

As of 0300UTC Nov2 - NHC puts Bahia Santa Maria well within the 'cone of uncertainty' and therefore under risk for a Tropical Storm.

In September 2003 my boat, with me single handing, was caught by a hurricane in the far north of the Sea of Cortez after playing the NHC odds, probabilities, and wind directions. NHC had forecast almost exactly the same heading as for TD-18E - after it was too late to move to a safer location NHC suddenly changed the location and heading of Hurricane Marty. About 4 AM Hurricane Marty over ran my boat and four others. One boat was holed and lost and mine was beached with minor damage.

For the 20 hours before that storm hit us it had moved on a course of about 314 M while NHC predicted and reported 355 M. Just 12 hours before hitting us Marty was forecast to go ashore into the Sonoran desert - 125 miles SE of us with 35 knot wind extending only 50 miles from the center. Twelve hours later it was on top of us with 65 knot winds and 15 foot seas. It then stalled and sat on top of us for 12 hours then went NNW - about 45 degrees to it's forecast track.

Forecasting and tracking in the east Pacific seems much more error prone than the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

Would you leave Turtle Bay and make the 40 hour run down to Santa Maria?
I wouldn't knowingly sail in the direction of any kind of active depression or TC system, so the answer is "he!! no".
But then I've lived with them for many decades, Californians may not have the same perspective and familiarity with Momma 'Cane.
In the event of a casualty, most any insurance company will have some questions at minimum.

NHC is hedging:

"
WTPZ43 KNHC 020239
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 125W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS AND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EASTERLY SHEAR OF 15-20 KT IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE POOR
STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 28C...AND THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI "
__________________

__________________
Tx J is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 23:10   #3
Senior Cruiser
 
rebel heart's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,190
Images: 3
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

cough cough

The 2013 HaHa is threading a needle this time around
__________________
rebel heart is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2013, 23:15   #4
Registered User
 
Stu Jackson's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Cowichan Bay, BC (Maple Bay Marina)
Posts: 6,385
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

Geez, the very LAST thing the Grand Pooba would ever do is to sail to a schedule.

Ain't anyone been listening to him for the past 30 years...sheesh...
__________________
Stu Jackson
Catalina 34 #224 (1986) C34IA Secretary
Cowichan Bay, BC, (Maple Bay Marina) SR/FK, M25, Rocna 10 (22#) (NZ model)
Stu Jackson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 10:06   #5
Registered User
 
TacomaSailor's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Burnt Store Marina, SW Florida
Boat: Caliber 40
Posts: 1,148
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

"cough cough

The 2013 HaHa is threading a needle this time around"

That thread does not appear in my Chrome browser - I never even knew there was a Scuttlebutt forum. The only way I can find the thread is to follow your link

Sorry about the duplicate post.
__________________
TacomaSailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 12:22   #6
Senior Cruiser
 
rebel heart's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 6,190
Images: 3
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TacomaSailor View Post
"cough cough

The 2013 HaHa is threading a needle this time around"

That thread does not appear in my Chrome browser - I never even knew there was a Scuttlebutt forum. The only way I can find the thread is to follow your link

Sorry about the duplicate post.
It's a special forum for Gold A++ members. You didn't get the platinum embossed card in the mail from cruisersforum?
__________________
rebel heart is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 12:53   #7
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Port Ludlow Wa
Boat: Makela,Ingrid38,Idora
Posts: 1,973
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

Hey, we can't even get a burgee....much less get on the a++ part of the forum. Burgee!
__________________
IdoraKeeper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2013, 14:48   #8
Senior Cruiser
 
s/v Beth's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Coos Bay, Oregon
Boat: Valiant 40 (1975)
Posts: 4,066
Re: Will they or Won't they move on? What would you do?

Golden Rule:
He who has the gold makes the rules...]
No this one! :
Don't go when there is greater than a 5% chance of getting mixed up in a storm.
I wouldn't go.
__________________

__________________
s/v Beth is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off




Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:28.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.