What will we be sailing in 50 years

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Lucky Larry

At the risk of angering the traditionalists, I'll predict that within 50 years, and maybe just 10, we'll have the autopilots, winches, chart plotters, AIS, radar, and weather systems all linked into an integrated system. For those which choose to use it, you'll be able to choose the destination and the rest will be automated.

My bet is that watch keeping will be augmented by folk ashore (via internet? ) monitoring the numbers and from onboard cameras. Some folk will pay for this extra "safety" - others will rely on internet volunteers........great arguments will ensue over which approach is best. Those who advocate looking out the window yourself (or worse - being on deck ) will be poo pooed as Ludites.

Craig Smith will have established ROCNA as the 3rd major world religion

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by Lucky Larry

At the risk of angering the traditionalists, I'll predict that within 50 years, and maybe just 10, we'll have the autopilots, winches, chart plotters, AIS, radar, and weather systems all linked into an integrated system. For those which choose to use it, you'll be able to choose the destination and the rest will be automated.

The individual components all exist now, and the data is all available. The integration is all that is left.

I'm sure that this has already been done to some degree on the larger sailing yachts (the ones with the helipads). Once enough of those who are not restricted by funds have paid the non-recurring engineering, this will slowly migrate into high end cruisers.

Just like I've read posts about how GPS has lead to the loss of navigation skills, we'll be reading about the good old days when real sailors / cruisers trimmed their sails manually.

If I were in control of about $20M I'd love to make it happen myself. I'd start with a Gunboat 66... I've got over 20 years experience doing systems integration. This would be a very fun project. Anybody out there want to make it happen, PM me.

Cheers and happy cruising,
Lucky Larry

If that's true, and I'm sure it is, will it spawn a "retro" movement in which some choose to shun electronics and go with the bare essentials - compass, sextant, time piece and paper charts (even if they are just print outs of electronic charts)?

This might sound out there, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

[VirtualVagabond]

Originally Posted by sneuman

If that's true, and I'm sure it is, will it spawn a "retro" movement in which some choose to shun electronics and go with the bare essentials - compass, sextant, time piece and paper charts (even if they are just print outs of electronic charts)?

This might sound out there, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

And they'll be the ones claiming they can exist and cruise the world on $5000/month!!... as if!

[highseas]

I'm thinking Lithium battery powered engines,hightech sail material that lasts forever and fully automated systems.Trouble is with the New World Order,you won't be able to go far.Travel will be very closely monitored by electronics..

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by sneuman

, will it spawn a "retro" movement in which some choose to shun electronics and go with the bare essentials - compass, sextant, time piece and paper charts ( .

It didn't happen before.

When Captain Cook took off with a Chronometer it chaged navigation. I don't spose you want to toss that too?

If Cook grabbed the first GPS and Laptop do you think he would have been using an Artillary plotter or a chart plotter?


Mark

[zeehag]

i will be still on my formosa--if i m still alive by then...LOL

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

It didn't happen before.

When Captain Cook took off with a Chronometer it chaged navigation. I don't spose you want to toss that too?

Well, I am not sure if I'd be part of such a movement, but it seems perfectly plausible that it would or could exist. Lots of sports have a minimalist clique within a larger group that embraces all the modern gadgets and fabrics.

If Cook grabbed the first GPS and Laptop do you think he would have been using an Artillary plotter or a chart plotter?

If Cook had a GPS and Laptop, he would have had a big blank screen covered much of the area he explored - because those areas had been entirely or largely unexplored before he arrived. Hence the reason why so much stuff Down Under is named after him.
Mark[/QUOTE]

[Lucky Larry]

Originally Posted by sneuman

If that's true, and I'm sure it is, will it spawn a "retro" movement in which some choose to shun electronics and go with the bare essentials - compass, sextant, time piece and paper charts (even if they are just print outs of electronic charts)?

This might sound out there, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

I worked for a long time in an environment that took advantage of ALL available technologies, while maintaining the ability to go anywhere, on a very strict schedule, with just a compass, chart, and clock. And sometimes without the chart.

While I would certainly enjoy an ocean crossing, while reading books, fishing, and lounging secure in the knowledge that my systems would get me there in the safest and most efficient route, I would never choose to do so without the tools and knowledge to finish the route when the systems failed, or the unexpected was encountered. And you would be well rested when it was time to go back to the old ways.

There will always be those who only learn the new ways and are unable to go back to the old.

Oh well. I suppose that is more than enough thread drift for now.

I certainly hope that I get to stick around for the next 50 years to see how close our predictions were.

Cheers,
Lucky Larry

[capn_billl]

The next material breakthrough will probably be a closed cell foam encapsulated in a rigid reinforced polymer shell. Several auto manufacturers have already started making bumpers out of this material.

Varying economic cycles will probably mean most cruisers will be in used boats of today.

The global link of boat position is doable with todays technology. I believe freighters already have tracked position logs. Sailboats can use a gps spotter to show current position. It would be a simple matter to write the software to combine all of these tools to show current global position of every ship on the water, and download to all ships via satphone. You could then look to see if there are any registered ships in 100mile radius before taking a nap. If a transmitting ship suddenly lost signal, a DR line would show probable position, and alert nearby vessels to investigate distress, or malfunctioning transmitter.

Yes there are some "big brother" implications, but it would just be an extension of AIS. You could always change ship description, or turn off transmitter when prudent.

[Johnathon123]

Do you think eventually the electronics could "deliver" the boat and you could simply fly to meet the vessel in your desired cruising ground, perhaps a human "pilot" could met them at the entrance to any port to assist for the last mile or so?

[sailorboy1]

Maybe we should just hope that in 50 years that the electronics we have today, finally work the way we all currently wished they would!

[hoppy]

This thread scares me when I realise that 50 years ago was (only) 1961.

Perhaps in 50 years technology will be such that "solo ocean crossing" may no longer cause a heated discussion

[sailstoo]

See what is perhaps the worst movie ever made, "Waterworld" for a look at the future.
Waterworld (1995) - IMDb

[boasun]

Fifty years from now all Governments will have restricted or outlawed all preceived dangerous sports. those sports can only be play or lived in virtual game playing computers. This includes everything from skateboarding to solo sailing. All foods will come to you precut because you just by chance, might hurt someone else or yourself, if you had a sharp knife. So get use to using your fingers or chop sticks.
They will have you cushioned in soft cotton wadding and if you ask why you can't do something, like go sailing; you will be told that it is to dangerous and that they the government knows best on what is good for you.
Everything will be government control and be very BLAND.

[Johnathon123]

Perhaps the world's extremist will have taken this to the next level

How to Make a Boat Out of a Cereal Box | eHow.com