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Old 23-10-2015, 16:59   #106
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

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just checked FB,zeehag is off the boat on land,in an apartment.
good call inho
she'll look back at this and know she made the right move
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:00   #107
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Good example of how NOAA's GFS model under estimates high wind speeds. Near the storm center GFS is only showing winds in the 40-60 knot range (56 kts at cursor in attached image).
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:02   #108
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Here's what the marina looked like in the mid 90's.
The lower pic is an aerial shot of the area with the (rectangular) marina before docks had been installed.
I took this photo of a wall of photos in our house, thus the crummy definition.
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:06   #109
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

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just checked FB,zeehag is off the boat on land,in an apartment.
good call inho
Good news. Thank you! I can breathe again.
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:08   #110
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

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down again
probably washed away now that the wind will have changed to on shore with the accompanying tidal surge,i hope the operator got inland!
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:16   #111
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

I asked why the Weather Channel storm tracker was reporting such different conditions than seemed to be at the storm land fall?

The answer is that he said in the broadcast he was "in a concrete hotel a mile inland from La Manzanilla." I've been to several of those hotels and assumed he knew what he was talking about.

Subsequent reporting put a name to the location: Emililano Zapata which is actually 21 miles NNE of La Manzanilla and is 4-miles inland at 500'. That is an enormous distance when Patricia has an eye that is less than 5 miles wide.

TWC was showing the live cam from La Manzanilla and the storm tracker was reporting as if the live camera reflected his situation. But he was actually a long way distant from the camera and the beach and the live shot had nothing to do with his reporting.

TWC has lost a great deal of integrity in the last couple years.
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:32   #112
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Thinking of you right now, Zee'... you are probably duckin'and coverin'at the moment. Hopefully in the hotel bar! Stay safe, Sweetie. Cheers, Phil
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:33   #113
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

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just checked FB,zeehag is off the boat on land,in an apartment.
good call inho
Thanks god!
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:36   #114
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Hey senormech'. Is that photo of the Marina in Manzanilla? Doesn't look like the one in Barre Navidad which is where our buddy, Zeehag was, I thought. I thought she was on the hook in the little bay in front of the marina. Phil
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:36   #115
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

What sort of reports from vessels that were at sea in this one are coming in?
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:36   #116
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

God damn... Here is hoping her boat survives.... I can't imagine!
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Old 23-10-2015, 17:44   #117
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Zee, so glad to hear you are someplace safe. I hope your boat rides it out like a duck. And my thoughts are with the local people. Hope they make out okay too.


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Old 23-10-2015, 17:48   #118
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

That's the same marina circa 1996 (ish).
I looked at the latest pic on Google Earth and there are no other marinas in that lagoon.
The canals are still there, but no marina.
As Zee said, you need a draft of less than 5 feet to go into the canals.
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Old 23-10-2015, 18:05   #119
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

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What sort of reports from vessels that were at sea in this one are coming in?
Heh, I wondered about that earlier, the NHC advisories usually have a request for 'any ships' reports within 300 miles' near the bottom of the page.
For any ship at sea within 100 miles of Patricia, the operative words would be "were at sea", as they are likely at the bottom or far inshore now.


Hoping Zee and everyone there come through OK, and their boats, and of course the local residents who stand to lose the most.
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Old 23-10-2015, 18:19   #120
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Re: Watch out for Patricia

Real Time Winds - Worldwide earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions
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