Watch out for Patricia

[SaltyMonkey]

No more guesses when where what. Going into pray mode.

[Tx J]

Eye was just a few miles from shore at 30 minute interval 2130 UTC rb image here (Rainbow RB Rainbow enhancement curve - Colorful enhancement, zoom it in/up).
It'll be a 2200 UTC image RSN.

Does look like a bad wobble took it right/east a bit closer to Z.

Hope Zee and crew are OK.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

[bella]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

40 ft surge now predicted.

breakers off Manzanillo running at 15 feet according to reporter at a resort on the beach at Manzanillo. TWC is showing actual footage... webcam is now down. TWC says the storm will be moving onshore by 7pm easern US time.

Here are some photos I took off googleearth.. position at 5pm
1.) shows Patricia position at 5pm in relation to where Karen is.
2.) shows a close up... note that the terrain makes the area a hurricane hole.
3. closeup of the anchorage..not sure exactly where the boat is..but you get the idea...

[EllisElectric]

Web cam has been knocked down a little and ocean is getting further up on shore

[Stormsailor]

Good luck to you zeehag..... Will be waiting to hear from you ... Seriously have you in mind... Good juju to your safety..

[senormechanico]

As I said previously, a 40 foot surge would wipe out everything for miles inland.
All of La Manzanilla, Melaque/San Patricio and Barra de Navidad would be completely underwater.

[atoll]

latest gif ,wall passing just~5-10nm to the west of zeehags location

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...btop0-lalo.gif

[Geekatlrg]

I wish Z would have got off the boat. I have a rock in my stomach just thinking about it.. praying for ya girl.

[Cherise]

Atoll looks right Zee! We love you, please get crawling to land.

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by bella

Attachment 111486

Attachment 111487

Attachment 111488


breakers off Manzanillo running at 15 feet according to reporter at a resort on the beach at Manzanillo. TWC is showing actual footage... webcam is now down. TWC says the storm will be moving onshore by 7pm easern US time.

Here are some photos I took off googleearth.. position at 5pm
1.) shows Patricia position at 5pm in relation to where Karen is.
2.) shows a close up... note that the terrain makes the area a hurricane hole.
3. closeup of the anchorage..not sure exactly where the boat is..but you get the idea...

The 2200 UTC latest sat images show the eye going ashore.
With a slight right wobble it looks to be about passing ~1/2 degree of longitude west of Zee (as I make out the images you give and the sat ones), about 30 miles to the east of there.
Perhaps one of the worst places to be given the strong-side rotation.
Even in that wind-protected harbor the storm surge may be inescapable . Her lagoon appears to have two normal 'passes', maybe only one navigable but the other (to the east?) subject to inflow. And depending on elevation of the developed land areas, they may be submerged. Not good.

Hang in there Zee.

[powsmias]

Originally Posted by svmariane

WebCam back up as of this post....
La Manzanilla Beach cam

down again

[TacomaSailor]

I'm confused!

The NHC gif (15:00 PDT and 15:30 PDT) shows the storm center crossing shore at N 19.2 W 104.8 which is 3 NM South of Punta Hermana (the NW entrance to Tenacatita Bay) and just 4 NM West of La Manzanilla. The live camera on the beach at La Manzanilla (15:15 PDT as shown on the Weather Channel) is showing less surf than I saw on many days of drinking beer on the beach there. The trees are moving but not unusually.

How can the eyewall of a 200 knot hurricane be passing just 4 miles W and not have much surf or wind? Is the "Live" camera shown on TWC not really live?

The weather channel commentator/storm tracker who is just a mile inland from La Manzanilla is reporting a 972 mb barometer which is 80 or more millibars higher than is being reported for the storm center. His reported pressure readings have not changed in 30-minutes (15:15 to 15:30 PDT) during the time the storm center should be just miles from his location.

I am not doubting the strength of the storm but am very confused that the pictures on the beach at the eyewall and the pressure reports do not, in any way, reflect the NHC / NOAA / NWS / TWC reports.

What is going on there?

[TJ D]

I also sure hope that she got off the boat. This pilings in that marina are not very tall, floating docks will come right off the pilings with anything more than about 6' on the storm surge. That looks to be a certainty. I hope she and all others are ok. Looks like PV's catching a break, anyway. Those mountains south and east of town really do afford a lot of protection.

[smj]

Originally Posted by bella

All things considered.. and where she is.. its not all that iffy... nor foolish.

You might want to look back in the keys news archives for Wilma. A number of people stayed onboard in Boot Key Harbor. One account from the shore saw a boat drag anchor towards a trawle that no one realized anyone was onboard. They saw the diesal fire up, the owner go forward and chop the anchor and head off up Sister Creek where he grounded himself and rode out the rest of Wilma. There were some lessons learned by those who stayed and those who took off up to the Shark and hurricane holes.

So no, I think, in this particular case Zeehag is good to go and not foolish in staying.
YMMV
'bella

We were in Boot Key for the hurricanes of 2005, and there is no comparison to the hurricane getting ready to hit Mexico.

[atoll]

just checked FB,zeehag is off the boat on land,in an apartment.
good call inho