Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 23-10-2015, 15:56   #91
cruiser

Join Date: May 2010
Location: SF Bay Area; Former Annapolis and MA Liveaboard.
Boat: Looking and saving for my next...mid-atlantic coast
Posts: 6,197
Re: Watch out for Patricia

No more guesses when where what. Going into pray mode.
__________________

__________________
SaltyMonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:07   #92
Registered User
 
Tx J's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: South Texas
Boat: Newport 28 & Robalo 20
Posts: 363
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Eye was just a few miles from shore at 30 minute interval 2130 UTC rb image here (Rainbow RB Rainbow enhancement curve - Colorful enhancement, zoom it in/up).
It'll be a 2200 UTC image RSN.

Does look like a bad wobble took it right/east a bit closer to Z.

Hope Zee and crew are OK.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif
__________________

__________________
Tx J is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:08   #93
Registered User
 
bella's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Old SouthEast
Posts: 244
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Click image for larger version

Name:	mexico1.jpg
Views:	222
Size:	371.3 KB
ID:	111486

Click image for larger version

Name:	mexico2.jpg
Views:	217
Size:	376.7 KB
ID:	111487

Click image for larger version

Name:	mexico3.jpg
Views:	223
Size:	375.4 KB
ID:	111488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheechako View Post
40 ft surge now predicted.

breakers off Manzanillo running at 15 feet according to reporter at a resort on the beach at Manzanillo. TWC is showing actual footage... webcam is now down. TWC says the storm will be moving onshore by 7pm easern US time.

Here are some photos I took off googleearth.. position at 5pm
1.) shows Patricia position at 5pm in relation to where Karen is.
2.) shows a close up... note that the terrain makes the area a hurricane hole.
3. closeup of the anchorage..not sure exactly where the boat is..but you get the idea...
__________________
bella is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:14   #94
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Baltimore, Maryland
Boat: Seaward 22
Posts: 91
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Web cam has been knocked down a little and ocean is getting further up on shore
__________________
EllisElectric is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:16   #95
Registered User
 
Stormsailor's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Lake Norman N.C
Boat: cal 2-25
Posts: 57
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Good luck to you zeehag..... Will be waiting to hear from you ... Seriously have you in mind... Good juju to your safety..
__________________
Stormsailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:20   #96
Senior Cruiser
 
senormechanico's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2003
Boat: Dragonfly 1000 trimaran
Posts: 5,830
Re: Watch out for Patricia

As I said previously, a 40 foot surge would wipe out everything for miles inland.
All of La Manzanilla, Melaque/San Patricio and Barra de Navidad would be completely underwater.
__________________
Memento,homo, quia pulvis es, et in pulverem reverteris.
senormechanico is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:23   #97
Senior Cruiser
 
atoll's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 9,312
Images: 75
Re: Watch out for Patricia

latest gif ,wall passing just~5-10nm to the west of zeehags location

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...btop0-lalo.gif
__________________
my catamaran building project updates http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...36#post2502136
atoll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:37   #98
Registered User

Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 72
Re: Watch out for Patricia

I wish Z would have got off the boat. I have a rock in my stomach just thinking about it.. praying for ya girl.
__________________
Geekatlrg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:38   #99
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: San Francisco Bay Area
Boat: dinghies and monohulls small and large
Posts: 88
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Atoll looks right Zee! We love you, please get crawling to land.

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
Cherise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:38   #100
Registered User
 
Tx J's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: South Texas
Boat: Newport 28 & Robalo 20
Posts: 363
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by bella View Post
Attachment 111486

Attachment 111487

Attachment 111488


breakers off Manzanillo running at 15 feet according to reporter at a resort on the beach at Manzanillo. TWC is showing actual footage... webcam is now down. TWC says the storm will be moving onshore by 7pm easern US time.

Here are some photos I took off googleearth.. position at 5pm
1.) shows Patricia position at 5pm in relation to where Karen is.
2.) shows a close up... note that the terrain makes the area a hurricane hole.
3. closeup of the anchorage..not sure exactly where the boat is..but you get the idea...
The 2200 UTC latest sat images show the eye going ashore.
With a slight right wobble it looks to be about passing ~1/2 degree of longitude west of Zee (as I make out the images you give and the sat ones), about 30 miles to the east of there.
Perhaps one of the worst places to be given the strong-side rotation.
Even in that wind-protected harbor the storm surge may be inescapable . Her lagoon appears to have two normal 'passes', maybe only one navigable but the other (to the east?) subject to inflow. And depending on elevation of the developed land areas, they may be submerged. Not good.

Hang in there Zee.
__________________
Tx J is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:39   #101
Registered User
 
powsmias's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Jersey
Boat: Pearson 35 #285
Posts: 309
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by svmariane View Post
WebCam back up as of this post....
La Manzanilla Beach cam
down again
__________________
Every bone in my body is a spar. And when I spits, I spits tar. I's hard. I is, I am, I are
www.eddiethelock.com
powsmias is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:46   #102
Registered User
 
TacomaSailor's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Burnt Store Marina, SW Florida
Boat: Caliber 40
Posts: 1,148
Re: Watch out for Patricia

I'm confused!

The NHC gif (15:00 PDT and 15:30 PDT) shows the storm center crossing shore at N 19.2 W 104.8 which is 3 NM South of Punta Hermana (the NW entrance to Tenacatita Bay) and just 4 NM West of La Manzanilla. The live camera on the beach at La Manzanilla (15:15 PDT as shown on the Weather Channel) is showing less surf than I saw on many days of drinking beer on the beach there. The trees are moving but not unusually.

How can the eyewall of a 200 knot hurricane be passing just 4 miles W and not have much surf or wind? Is the "Live" camera shown on TWC not really live?

The weather channel commentator/storm tracker who is just a mile inland from La Manzanilla is reporting a 972 mb barometer which is 80 or more millibars higher than is being reported for the storm center. His reported pressure readings have not changed in 30-minutes (15:15 to 15:30 PDT) during the time the storm center should be just miles from his location.

I am not doubting the strength of the storm but am very confused that the pictures on the beach at the eyewall and the pressure reports do not, in any way, reflect the NHC / NOAA / NWS / TWC reports.

What is going on there?
__________________
TacomaSailor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:48   #103
Registered User

Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Alaska/Portugal
Boat: Custom 55
Posts: 680
Re: Watch out for Patricia

I also sure hope that she got off the boat. This pilings in that marina are not very tall, floating docks will come right off the pilings with anything more than about 6' on the storm surge. That looks to be a certainty. I hope she and all others are ok. Looks like PV's catching a break, anyway. Those mountains south and east of town really do afford a lot of protection.
__________________
TJ D is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:50   #104
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by bella View Post
All things considered.. and where she is.. its not all that iffy... nor foolish.

You might want to look back in the keys news archives for Wilma. A number of people stayed onboard in Boot Key Harbor. One account from the shore saw a boat drag anchor towards a trawle that no one realized anyone was onboard. They saw the diesal fire up, the owner go forward and chop the anchor and head off up Sister Creek where he grounded himself and rode out the rest of Wilma. There were some lessons learned by those who stayed and those who took off up to the Shark and hurricane holes.

So no, I think, in this particular case Zeehag is good to go and not foolish in staying.
YMMV
'bella
We were in Boot Key for the hurricanes of 2005, and there is no comparison to the hurricane getting ready to hit Mexico.
__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 23-10-2015, 16:57   #105
Senior Cruiser
 
atoll's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 9,312
Images: 75
Re: Watch out for Patricia

just checked FB,zeehag is off the boat on land,in an apartment.
good call inho
__________________

__________________
my catamaran building project updates http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...36#post2502136
atoll is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Watch Out for Overhead Lines! Chief Engineer Seamanship & Boat Handling 5 08-09-2009 08:49
Grifters! (watch out) ssullivan General Sailing Forum 61 14-11-2006 22:19
A book to watch out for... ssullivan The Library 1 08-08-2005 10:09



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:11.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.