Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 24-10-2015, 21:34   #181
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,767
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Watch out for Patricia

there is manzanillO
and there is LA manzanillA.
landfall was La manzanillA
not manzanillO, the city with airport and shipping port.
big difference.
manzanillO is SOUTH of me by 20 linear miles.
LA manzanillA is about 14 linearr miles NORTH of me, where storm hit. difference.
LA manzanillA with web cam was WIPED OUT. gone . se fue. bye bye. Manzanillwas un scathed.
roads have become impassable between barra and ManzanillO nd cihuatlan was made into a river, with strong flow.
__________________

zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 22:25   #182
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,887
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by smj View Post
Sustained risk? Could you explain?


Sent from my iPad using Cruisers Sailing Forum
By that I mean a combination of the number of days that a Hurricane level wind has acted upon the sea....and whether the topography will either enhance and sustain the possible damages (risk), or help to dissipate it.

You have 3 basic risks:
1 Wind Effect.... risk to weaken and/or destroy structures ..... More risk with a flat terrain versus a hilly landfall that creates opposing vortexes.

2. Storm Surge..... Seas building up over a number of days and funneling into a large shallow bay would created a more sustained risk over more than one tidal phase. (Not the case with Patricia)

3. Accumulated Rainfall.... More risk in slow moving TRS with mountain slopes and mudslides.....this will i believe cause the most damage with Patricia

A lot of people are comparing Patricia to Yolanda/Haiyan....

This track showing the number of days at TRS strength before landfall and its track into shallow Bay, made the storm surge much higher and sustained, compared to Patricia.

If Patricia had tracked further north towards PG and into Sea of Cortez.... It would have had a great deal more sustainable damage over time

http://www.nytimes.com/live/hurrican...yphoon-haiyan/
__________________

__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 22:27   #183
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,887
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Attached track comparing Yolanda
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	1445747249555.jpg
Views:	168
Size:	60.1 KB
ID:	111557  
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 22:36   #184
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,767
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Watch out for Patricia

there were 4 ft seas in lagoon and they took away the diesel dock.oops....havent yet been to colimilla to see results.
but our fuel dock se fue.....
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 22:48   #185
Registered User
 
ryon's Avatar

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 588
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
. . . LA manzanillA with web cam was WIPED OUT. gone . se fue. bye bye. . .
¡Qué lástima! That is a beautiful "undiscovered" stretch of Mexico. I hope the people are okay!
__________________
ryon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 23:27   #186
Registered User
 
travellerw's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Martinique
Boat: Fortuna Island Spirit 40
Posts: 1,718
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Zeehag.. So happy to see you posting and to hear your boat is OK... MADE MY WEEK, MONTH, YEAR!

Please let us know how we can help the others who weren't as fortunate!
__________________
travellerw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 23:31   #187
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: New Mexico, USA
Boat: International Etchells USA 125 Black Magic, Santana 20 475 Ghost, Hobie 33 3100 Bruja, dinghies,
Posts: 1,118
Re: Watch out for Patricia

The difference if some fortyish miles between La Manzanilla and Manzanillo (with an oh) was probably about the difference between Cat 4 and 3 winds and tropical storm winds. Plus or minus twenty miles could easily be a matter of life or death. That's another reason why the comparison with an oversized tornado makes a certain sort of sense in certain ways.

Sent from my XT1254 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
Pat, from the Desert Sea http://desertsea.blogspot.com
rgscpat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-10-2015, 23:33   #188
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: New Mexico, USA
Boat: International Etchells USA 125 Black Magic, Santana 20 475 Ghost, Hobie 33 3100 Bruja, dinghies,
Posts: 1,118
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Durned phone... of some fortyish, and Manzanillo with an oh!

Sent from my XT1254 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
Pat, from the Desert Sea http://desertsea.blogspot.com
rgscpat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 06:11   #189
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelagic View Post
By that I mean a combination of the number of days that a Hurricane level wind has acted upon the sea....and whether the topography will either enhance and sustain the possible damages (risk), or help to dissipate it.

You have 3 basic risks:
1 Wind Effect.... risk to weaken and/or destroy structures ..... More risk with a flat terrain versus a hilly landfall that creates opposing vortexes.

2. Storm Surge..... Seas building up over a number of days and funneling into a large shallow bay would created a more sustained risk over more than one tidal phase. (Not the case with Patricia)

3. Accumulated Rainfall.... More risk in slow moving TRS with mountain slopes and mudslides.....this will i believe cause the most damage with Patricia

A lot of people are comparing Patricia to Yolanda/Haiyan....

This track showing the number of days at TRS strength before landfall and its track into shallow Bay, made the storm surge much higher and sustained, compared to Patricia.

If Patricia had tracked further north towards PG and into Sea of Cortez.... It would have had a great deal more sustainable damage over time

http://www.nytimes.com/live/hurrican...yphoon-haiyan/

Thank you.


Sent from my iPad using Cruisers Sailing Forum
__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 07:31   #190
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: New Mexico, USA
Boat: International Etchells USA 125 Black Magic, Santana 20 475 Ghost, Hobie 33 3100 Bruja, dinghies,
Posts: 1,118
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Or if Patricia's track had gone into Banderas Bay...

Sent from my XT1254 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
__________________
Pat, from the Desert Sea http://desertsea.blogspot.com
rgscpat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 07:51   #191
Registered User
 
Sea Dreaming's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Whoo! Finally made it back to Mexico!
Boat: Cheoy Lee Offshore 38
Posts: 1,450
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherise View Post
This is why I don't spend much time on forums, too many direct or passive aggressive responses that I bet if were in person would be much leas "drama".
How else are you to encourage real, young to middle aged actual sailors, cruises, liveaboards???
Someone else might agree and say - yeah the US media making out Mexico to be worse than it is. Sorry, I guess Im just a Bozo!

Anyhow, I was just giving a shout to Zee/Karen.

Sent from my SGH-T999 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app
Ya, the Internet anonymity encourages some folk to dispense with kindness and diplomacy. I have even found that there are a few who don't actually read what was written and plow into atrack mode anyway. More shame them. Keep posting Cerise. Ignore the pundits. Most of us a pretty nice!
__________________
Sea Dreaming is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 07:54   #192
Moderator Emeritus
 
GordMay's Avatar

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 31,577
Images: 240
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Images for "Cuixmala Patricia"
https://www.google.ca/search?q=Cuixm...w=1366&bih=609
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 10:01   #193
CF Adviser
 
Pelagic's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Oct 2007
Boat: Van Helleman Schooner 65ft StarGazer
Posts: 6,887
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Time line formation
http://gcaptain.us11.list-manage1.co...5&e=0a4d88d4b5
__________________
Pelagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 10:46   #194
Senior Cruiser
 
Roy M's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Southwestern Yacht Club, San Diego, CA
Boat: Searunner 40 trimaran, WILDERNESS
Posts: 3,041
Images: 4
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Emerald Rose is looking for news on Meja located in marina at barra. we know Eric and Terry rode it out at the hotel but haven't heard from them since storm.
__________________
Roy M is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-10-2015, 11:02   #195
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 751
Re: Watch out for Patricia

Goat, u r right on that one. Ice age must have been something.
__________________

__________________
alansmith is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Watch Out for Overhead Lines! Chief Engineer Seamanship & Boat Handling 5 08-09-2009 08:49
Grifters! (watch out) ssullivan General Sailing Forum 61 14-11-2006 22:19
A book to watch out for... ssullivan The Library 1 08-08-2005 10:09



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 00:58.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.