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Old 27-12-2015, 09:46   #196
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enchantress View Post
As a pilot, as well as a sailor, I disagree with asking the CAP for help.

As they fly mainly single engine aircraft, you are asking a pilot and observer to risk their lives to fly a single engine plane, 20-40 nm off the coast at low altitude executing a search for a vessel with no one on board or in distress.

There is a HUGE difference in flying an over water search in a USCG C-130 and a light single engine Cessna 172!

While I appreciate the loss that Gil has undergone, this should NOT encourage us to greatly endanger people in the search when only property is involved. If something were to happen to a CAP aircraft (or other light aircraft), best case the USCG would then be looking for two people in a raft. Worse (and more likely) is an even more dire situation...
I'm not sure I agree with your logic. What you're saying is very similar to "don't drive your car on a 100 mi round trip because it will break down and leave you stranded."

Either their planes are airworthy, or they're not. Regardless of whether they are patrolling where ever they normally patrol(??) or looking for a boat, the plane either flies or it doesn't. In addition to SAR operations, they also do drug enforcement surveillance.

Who knows, they could be looking right at his boat as part of a drug interdiction patrol right at this moment. There's no harm in spreading the word, especially if they're already up there looking around at boats anyways.
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Old 27-12-2015, 09:54   #197
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Interesting factoid. Got this of SSCA, if you are not a member, consider it, they really get the resources available behind a cruiser in need.
"Glenn On Tothill wrote: Well, looks like the Civil Air Patrol is out. I received this from one of their pilots: I'm an active Civil Air Patrol SAR pilot. In this case the answer you'd get from CAP will mirror your experience with the USCG; if there is no one in distress there is no mission. Furthermore, there is a clear delineation in jurisdiction; USCG is in charge of search beyond gliding distance of land, while CAP does search over land and inland waters. We just aren't equipped for over-water search."
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Old 27-12-2015, 10:01   #198
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

[QUOTE=socaldmax;1998532]I'm not sure I agree with your logic. What you're saying is very similar to "don't drive your car on a 100 mi round trip because it will break down and leave you stranded."
Either their planes are airworthy, or they're not.

Next time I need a plane ferried across an ocean I'll call you. A plane doesn't stay airworthy forever and it ain't like driving your car down the road.
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Old 27-12-2015, 10:09   #199
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

[QUOTE=Guy;1998550]
Quote:
Originally Posted by socaldmax View Post
I'm not sure I agree with your logic. What you're saying is very similar to "don't drive your car on a 100 mi round trip because it will break down and leave you stranded."
Either their planes are airworthy, or they're not.

Next time I need a plane ferried across an ocean I'll call you. A plane doesn't stay airworthy forever and it ain't like driving your car down the road.
I never said they do.

Again, either it's airworthy, or it's not. If not, it shouldn't be flying at all, regardless of the terrain.

I sure hope someday we can get transoceanic flights. That would be great!
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Old 27-12-2015, 10:12   #200
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

It's a $20K boat with no lives at stake.

From a public resource perspective, you have to use them wisely.

I see this as more of a "all cruisers alert" situation, and hope it turns up.
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Old 27-12-2015, 10:31   #201
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

[QUOTE=Guy;1998550]
Quote:
Originally Posted by socaldmax View Post
I'm not sure I agree with your logic. What you're saying is very similar to "don't drive your car on a 100 mi round trip because it will break down and leave you stranded."

Either their planes are airworthy, or they're not.



Next time I need a plane ferried across an ocean I'll call you. A plane doesn't stay airworthy forever and it ain't like driving your car down the road.

CAP is almost always a bunch of kids and or the like, they are not Professional Aviators and to be truthful, I don't know why they even exist, it's more of a publicly funded flying club than anything.
Now that's going to upset people, well let it. Back in WWII, I believe they had a real job.
But they are I think a bunch of volunteers in C172's.
We wouldn't be asking the kids in the local Yacht club to take out their racing dinghies, well that is similar to the CAP.
It is possible they could get in over their head and then there would be a loss of life.

I thought pretty heavily about canceling the family vacation and having a look myself, but decided to be truthful that even if I found the boat, then what?
I'm afraid unless there is some kind of Christmas miracle, she's gone. I hope for a miracle to be truthful, I'd hate anyone to loose their boat.


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Old 27-12-2015, 10:34   #202
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Hello,

I certainly would not want anyone to risk life and limb to find my boat. I am already very thankful for all the efforts being put forth, especially by Glenn at the SSCA and Keith Cooper here in West-End, not to mention multiple others.

Many many years ago, in an other life, I rented a small Grumman Tiger four-seater and flew it to Green Turtle Cay. I used to fly ultralights, so I know about single-engine airplanes. And the key is: Single-engine. While they are very reliable, failures do happen. If I had a small plane and was participating in such a search, I would take it maybe ten miles out, staying at six thousand feet, to be able to glide back to the beach if needed, depending on the winds and the plane's glide ratio.. Even along the shore, a bird's eye view can be a good asset.

My time in West End is limited, I might be able to stay 2-3 days. After that, we'll see. Nassau might be the next logical stop, to be closer to the airlines and other options. If Dagny drifts towards Europe, then that's where I'll be going.. Without a sighting, it is hard to decide what course of action would be best. In the mean time, I am waiting and hoping here for news.

Gil.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:23   #203
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

What is the estimated (guesstimated) position of Dagny now? I know of a catamaran crew sailing outside OBX now, enroute to Ft Lauderdale...
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:32   #204
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

[QUOTE=socaldmax;1998558]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy View Post



I never said they do.



Again, either it's airworthy, or it's not. If not, it shouldn't be flying at all, regardless of the terrain.



I sure hope someday we can get transoceanic flights. That would be great!

You must have a higher risk tolerance than me, as I don't think I would sign up for a transoceanic flight on a single engine plane.


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Old 27-12-2015, 12:42   #205
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gilgsn View Post
I certainly would not want anyone to risk life and limb to find my boat. I am already very thankful for all the efforts being put forth, especially by Glenn at the SSCA and Keith Cooper here in West-End, not to mention multiple others ... Gil.
Thanks Gil.
Here's hoping that those efforts bear fruit, in the recovery of Dagny.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:42   #206
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by socaldmax View Post
I'm not sure I agree with your logic. What you're saying is very similar to "don't drive your car on a 100 mi round trip because it will break down and leave you stranded."

Either their planes are airworthy, or they're not. Regardless of whether they are patrolling where ever they normally patrol(??) or looking for a boat, the plane either flies or it doesn't. In addition to SAR operations, they also do drug enforcement surveillance.

Who knows, they could be looking right at his boat as part of a drug interdiction patrol right at this moment. There's no harm in spreading the word, especially if they're already up there looking around at boats anyways.
As a pilot of single engine myself, a pilot would make up their own mind. But Socaldmax, his reasoning is why I'd definitely not do it. And it's absolutely nothing like driving a 100miles in a car. I would have thought that to be obvious. In a car you can pull over to find out what that 'rattle' is on the outside or to cool down the engine. You cannot do that in a plane out over the ocean.

A single engine pilot is taught as part of routine training to be looking for places to put down in an emergency. It's why we avoid flying over miles and miles of forests, and it's also why we avoid flying over miles and miles of water without a purpose.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:47   #207
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

[QUOTE=socaldmax;1998558]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy View Post

I never said they do.

Again, either it's airworthy, or it's not. If not, it shouldn't be flying at all, regardless of the terrain.

I sure hope someday we can get transoceanic flights. That would be great!
If you have no idea of what your talking about, you really shouldn't be commenting. And it's very clear you have no idea about aviation.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:52   #208
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Mdfiasco this is what we have, I'm trying to see if I can get an updated position. If you spot this vessel call coast guard and if you cannot stay in area till we get a boat to it ( we may be able to get to her fast, or not, lots of scenarios) anyways, if it's possible to TAG the boat, not sure how to do that but if you have the means please tag it so we can recover her quickly.
Thanks for your help.

The Dagny recovery coordinator is Glenn with SSCA email KPK@sscadotorg

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocean Girl View Post
From SSCA Eddie Tothill Chris Parker's new drift analysis just came in: spread the word.

So the vessel started drifting from 26-40N/79W at about 5:30pm EST on Tue22.
Was sighted 27-04N/79-16W at 5:20pm on Wed23.

At 5pm on Thu24, I estimate position 28-12N/79-45W, based on drift from wind 30 miles, in direction 320T & set from current 48 miles in direction 355T.

At 5pm on Fri25, I estimate position 29-30N/80-10W, based on drift from wind 25 miles, in direction 310T & set from current 45 miles in direction 348T.

At 5pm today (Sat26), I estimate position 30N/80-30W, based on drift from wind 22 miles, in direction 320T & current about 10 miles in direction 345T.

From the current location there's little GulfStream current (and tidal currents should cancel themselves out over a 24hr period), so drift should be due exclusively to wind, and should be about 18 miles in a direction of 330T Sat26 night-Sun27 (yielding a 5pm Sun27 location of 30-15N/80-40W)...

and 22 miles in a direction 340T Sun27 night-Mon28 (yielding a Mon28 evening location of 30-36N/80-48W).

and 25mi in a direction 360T Mon28 night-Tue29 (yielding a 5pm Tue29 position 30-51N/80-48W).

Of course, all of the above is only an educated guess, and the possible errors compound over time...cheers...Chris.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:52   #209
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gilgsn View Post
Hello,

I certainly would not want anyone to risk life and limb to find my boat. I am already very thankful for all the efforts being put forth, especially by Glenn at the SSCA and Keith Cooper here in West-End, not to mention multiple others.

Many many years ago, in an other life, I rented a small Grumman Tiger four-seater and flew it to Green Turtle Cay. I used to fly ultralights, so I know about single-engine airplanes. And the key is: Single-engine. While they are very reliable, failures do happen. If I had a small plane and was participating in such a search, I would take it maybe ten miles out, staying at six thousand feet, to be able to glide back to the beach if needed, depending on the winds and the plane's glide ratio.. Even along the shore, a bird's eye view can be a good asset.

My time in West End is limited, I might be able to stay 2-3 days. After that, we'll see. Nassau might be the next logical stop, to be closer to the airlines and other options. If Dagny drifts towards Europe, then that's where I'll be going.. Without a sighting, it is hard to decide what course of action would be best. In the mean time, I am waiting and hoping here for news.

Gil.
Dude, I've been following a little since you lost it. Have you ruled out the possibility it's been stolen?

It just that it seems to be flying along with some of the estimates and frankly, I would have thought it to have been easily found the night you lost it or at least the next morning. From what I read I don't think you did anything wrong when you left her, but she certainly disappeared quickly.
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Old 27-12-2015, 12:57   #210
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdfiasco View Post
What is the estimated (guesstimated) position of Dagny now? I know of a catamaran crew sailing outside OBX now, enroute to Ft Lauderdale...
It's a real guessing-game now as the area of uncertainty is huge. My best guess for Dagny is 30-40 miles off the coast of Georgia anywhere south of Savannah. The SE wind has likely been pushing it inshore, where it might pick up the counter-current. Worthwhile letting your friends know to keep a lookout regardless of their route - do you know if they're planning on staying nearer to shore?
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