The end of sattellites

[ess105]

Greg,

Hoping you will still be around in 2029, you need not worry. The atmosphere does not extend remotely that far up.

Steve

[Alan Wheeler]

Sluissa, I should firstly appoligise for the comment about the "pile of crap". I did not intend that as a personal hit, it was not meant to be, so please don't take it that way. As I re-read it, I thought, ooops that could be considere as a put down. Sorry.
Yes MN4 has been know about for a while. Sadly, most of the published info is designed to catch readers. The close approach is is what is considered an extreme scenario. Anything that comes closer than the Moon orbit is considered near miss. This one chunk of rock is a little different to others in that it has an orbit similar to Earths and has been able to be tracked with resonable accuracy for many years. A computer does simulations forward to see what possible paths it can take over future years. It's kinda like predicting the weather on a far grander time scale. The further out you predict, the less accuracy you have, due to other influences. Each time this rock comes close to another object, it gets bent in it's path slightly. how much can not be accurately predicted. They know it will change adn have a ball park idea but not 100% till it happens and the the data is entered into the computer and the new path is run. At the mo, the closest approach is could be as close as 20-30K miles. That in astronimcal terms is actually a wisker. The furthest approach is still some substantial distance further away. Exact approach will not be exactly know for sometime as it is greatly influenced by gravitational pulls of Earth and sun and many other objects. This thing actually circles the Sun every 323days, so it will go through 30 odd more orbits before it gets close to us. So knowing how much orbital change occurs between now and then is a little difficult to predict. As the years og on, the prediction will become more and more accurate. However, that final approach is going to have a lot of scientist holding their breaths. A rock this size approaching earth as close as 20K miles is quite easily influenced by Earths gravitaional pull and could easily pull into us.
I have no more clue (even less) than the real experts, but I have found on many occasions before, that when agencies like Space.com make comments, it is usually headline grabbing and mostly the headline turns out to be like the Y2K bug.

[mudnut]

These things are monitored 24/7,have been for ages.What the gist of the story is,is that it's closer than most asteroids paths that have been monitored,having a "Greater chance"of hitting earth.Most of the people on this site,as pointed out,wont be around when/if it does.So unlike the words of Orson Wells,"Go back to ya PC's,TV's and VB's(Victoria Bitter,"An ozzie beverage")And have a peacefull nights sleep.ZZZZZZZ!And as far as China shooting down satelites and scaring the world to bit's,lets not forget that America is allready doing that all over the globe.Planet earth is our only home,and trust me,We are all doing our best to screw it up more than some asteroid way of in the land of"Predictable patterns".I find it very interesting that humans like to look "Outside the square"when they have so much crap going on "Inside the square".Give me the good old days of a "Brontosaurus steak a homely cave women and of course,a cave to call home."Hey Wheels,I'll give ya half a dinasour,3 big fish,an obedient cave women and 6 spears for ya floating cave."Mudnut.

[Alan Wheeler]

Hmmmmm, I'm listening. Can you tell me more about the woman ;-) Trust me, she'll have to bloody good to be able to replace the one I got. Best 50 bucks I ever spent that marriage Licence ;-)


Oh I hope Lori didn't read that, she'll tell my wife and I'll be a dead man.

[mudnut]

She actually owns the 6 spears,part of the caveman dowry thing.Ok,I'll throw in the cave nextdoor.That could be the deal clincher,she has locks of hair wherever ya look.It wont be a total loss,she's from Newzealand.Kamo,Nth island.You may have to retrain her.Did I say Wheels,opps,I meant Wheelie.Where ya wheelie bin.Mudnut.

[David_Old_Jersey]

That's why "everyone is going to the Moon" , so that when the Asteroid comes close it can be shot down with a Ray Gun.

Honest. I know stuff.

[mudnut]

David O-J,Leave Ray out of this.<GR>.Mudnut.

[sluissa]

no worries alan, I too find the news sources a bit overexaggerative, and that would have been my first reaction to it if I had not heard it from my astronomy professor who is "in the know" about this kind of thing.

[Alan Wheeler]

You have an Astronomy Proffesor?? Ooops, I'm talking to an expert :-)

[BilgeRat]

Originally Posted by dana-tenacity

I'm not convinced that loosing GPS would be all bad. Yes it's easy and convenient, but that has lead to an explosion in the number of cruising boats, which has led to a huge increase in the costs involved in cruising and a huge increase in government interference in cruisers lives. I say shoot those things down and I'll polish up my sextant.

I would tend to agree with Dana- on this! We (the world) were a lot better off when man had to use his intelligance to get around on the globe. Back when men and ships were made of iron and wood. And then we wouldn't have to worry about the Chinese unless they try shoot'n down the sun and moon. But they worship those.

In the past 20 years I've seen the oceans become crowded with the simple minded tring to live the romance of the sea. There's nothing romantic about it. It can be nice sometimes but OUT THERE it's mostly tough. I see'm all the time. They get in a little danger and start crying Mommie, come get me, I'm getting wet. :cry:

The problem with modern electronics, if it gives out your stuck. There's no way home unless your a real seaman. It's a false sence of security. I would dare to say that all Captian's should be required to understand and be able to use a sextant. And actually be required to carry one outside of inland waters. Even coastal crusing a boat can be sucked out to sea in currents.

And that's my opinion wheather it be worthy of recongition or not!

Yours Aye!

[coot]

Originally Posted by BilgeRat

I would tend to agree with Dana- on this! We (the world) were a lot better off when man had to use his intelligance to get around on the globe. Back when men and ships were made of iron and wood.

Are you serious? This seems a rather callous attitude toward human life.

[dana-tenacity]

I'm serious, don't understand your comment, callous attitude towards human life?? how so, I'm talking of getting rid of the GPS system and thinning out a few wallies from the cruising world.

[Boracay]

Maybe we could start by learning to use compass and chart?

[seafox]

turns out to be like the Y2K bug.

Ohmygawd!!!! is there a bug???? How come no one told me about it. Ohmygawd!!!!

[Pura Vida]

In the event that some govenrment knocks out the entire GPS or GLONASS systems the international sailing community will have problems far larger than simply needing to bone up on celestial navigation.