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Old 02-06-2016, 17:54   #1
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Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

More accurately, it is not that the numbers do not add up - rather it is that the numbers show a very different picture compared to perceptions and advise.

The perception and the general advise is to avoid Venezuela due to the high number of piracy and security issues. However, the data for the past 3 years from https://www.safetyandsecuritynet.com show that there has only been 3 reported incidents in Venezuela. This number is very much inline with many other places in the Caribbean. That the real dangerous places are Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Martin (French) and St. Vincent/Grenadines with 20, 36, 15 and 27 respective reported incidents.

So, what is the story here? Can anybody shed some light on this?



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Old 02-06-2016, 18:03   #2
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Yeah. Everyone is smart enough to stay away from Venezuela. Those three issues are a higher percentage of the tourist vs places like the Bahamas.

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Old 02-06-2016, 18:12   #3
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

The numbers of "reported" incidents for Venezuela for the past 3 years make sense to me, it means that Very few cruisers, private yachts have ventured into those dangerous waters and dangled themselves as targets.
This trend has been ongoing for 10 years or more and certainly will continue for years to come with what is tragically happening there.
The numbers for the other reported islands reflect that those islands still enjoy a steady stream of visitors and yachts and sadly potential targets for criminals.


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Old 02-06-2016, 20:31   #4
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

As has been alluded too. Crime statistics are generally reported on a per capita basis. But here you are seeing absolute numbers. If we assume that a few hundred thousand people visited St Lucia but only 15 visited Venezuela which is really safer? The place where 36/500,000 has an issue or the one where 3/15 did?
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Old 02-06-2016, 22:29   #5
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Its not reported as a crime when the government decides to act like pirates.
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Old 02-06-2016, 22:49   #6
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

situation getting worse--argentina voted against vene being granted a reprieve via oas.
. oops
more famine more no water, more no electricity. and you WANT to cruise there?? have a great time. mebbe you can manage not to be clubbed for your foodstuffs. there isnt even beer there anymore.
the people are not happy. they were looking forward to a change.
maduro wants the streets to flow with the blood of the constituency. maduro negating the will of people. he is negating the votes and the petitions. he is a paranoid bus driver driving vene into total chaos and bloody coup. read: el dolar today.

isnt that a lovely place to cruise. have fun.
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Old 02-06-2016, 23:28   #7
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

I wish this Forum had a -"LIKE"- button
Quote:
Yeah. Everyone is smart enough to stay away from Venezuela.
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Old 03-06-2016, 05:00   #8
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Quote:
Originally Posted by funjohnson View Post
Yeah. Everyone is smart ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by REsCat View Post
The numbers of "reported" ....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stumble View Post
As has been alluded too....
Thank you for your replies - your answers are very plausible explanations which I did not think about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
situation getting worse--argentina voted against vene being granted a reprieve via oas. . oops ....
Zeehag, with respect; parts of your message is actually quite difficult to read/understand. You are writing the way millennials text on their phones - abbreviations, no capitals, misspelling, etc. But thanks anyway.
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:18   #9
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

11q
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Originally Posted by Revelations View Post
Thank you for your replies - your answers are very plausible explanations which I did not think about.



Zeehag, with respect; parts of your message is actually quite difficult to read/understand. You are writing the way millennials text on their phones - abbreviations, no capitals, misspelling, etc. But thanks anyway.
you donot like my disabled hand typoing, i say T F B and continue on.
this planet is FULL ofdisrespectful judgementalist. include self in the ever growing number.
inflexibility and labelling show how smart you are so ignore my info and SAIL VENE. you deserve it. enjoy.
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:20   #10
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Have you though about the base numbers?

Perhaps one place was visited by 10 boats while the other by 10000?

Then you get something like this:

Place A 25 reports = 25/10 = 2.5 crime per visiting boat.
Place B 25 reports = 25/10000 = .0025 crime per visiting boat.

Another question is the reporting standards of local authorities (where such exist). and then there are other likely reasons. St Martin French has EU reporting standards. Venezuela has no standards.

Etc.

25 =NOT 25.

Cheers,
b.
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:46   #11
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

After spending time on 25+ islands in the Caribbean, we've never been anywhere where we were concerned about security. You should have some basic common sense (lock your dinghy, don't leave valuables on deck at night, lock the boat when you're away), but that applies in any anchorage in the world.

People who are unpleasant or disparaging toward locals run higher risks. Those who treat people with respect have lower risks.

I am certain that many "stolen" dinghys have more to do with happy-hour owners who get confused about running the rabbit around the tree before jumping in the hole.
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:46   #12
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Cool the bull good people!

I wrote you a small 'haiku' titled "8-5-5, the New Matrix":

...

For our Zeehag is a coder,
Do not read the lines!
See the whole picture!

...

;-)

Love,
b.
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:15   #13
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pirate Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Quote:
Originally Posted by DMCantor View Post
After spending time on 25+ islands in the Caribbean, we've never been anywhere where we were concerned about security. You should have some basic common sense (lock your dinghy, don't leave valuables on deck at night, lock the boat when you're away), but that applies in any anchorage in the world.

People who are unpleasant or disparaging toward locals run higher risks. Those who treat people with respect have lower risks.

I am certain that many "stolen" dinghys have more to do with happy-hour owners who get confused about running the rabbit around the tree before jumping in the hole.
FYI lost my dinghy in Anguila with a 24 hr old Tohatsu 9.9 when the cable locking it was cut with a cable cutter. As far as Grenada incidents a lot of them are the result of Venezuelans in Pangas same as in ABC incidents. Spent last hurricane season in the B and C and saw the VZ's in action up close. Spending this cane season in St Croix good luck to me and the Mary Jane
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:24   #14
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

wow... can't believe you dissed Zeehag! What were you thinking?

BTW... "... parts of your message is ..." is grammatically incorrect
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Old 03-06-2016, 10:41   #15
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Re: Security Issues - Numbers don't add up

Quote:
Originally Posted by sailon46 View Post
FYI lost my dinghy in Anguila with a 24 hr old Tohatsu 9.9 when the cable locking it was cut with a cable cutter. As far as Grenada incidents a lot of them are the result of Venezuelans in Pangas same as in ABC incidents. Spent last hurricane season in the B and C and saw the VZ's in action up close. Spending this cane season in St Croix good luck to me and the Mary Jane
Desperate people do desperate things. People who have been brainwashed in class envy likewise do some pretty rotten things to "even the score".

Venezuela has a perfect storm of both. It was already plenty bad as long as two years ago when my company ceased requiring its employees to go there on a regular basis.

Give it a wide berth until the revolution has passed and her citizenship has returned to a proper sense of right and wrong, with respect for others and their right to private ownership.

BTW this isn't the first time Venezuala has gone through this exact type of scenario. I still remember the mid 1960's when they kicked all the expats out and took their land and nationalized their factories. Surprising to me is that it always seems to be a surprise to the next generation. "Those who fail to learn from history..."

(sigh)
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