Keep a close eye on the
weather, there are some very unusual patterns shaping up for the NW Carib.
This AM's 72 hour surface
forecast shows a tropical wave entering the NW Carib and intersecting with a low near Bay Islands. Later in the season this feature convergence often results in instant hurricanes spinning up off the coast of
Honduras. Upper level winds are not favorable for tropical
weather development at this time, but this certainly bears watching.*
CAPE Index in the region is
forecast to start increasing Thurs-Friday and elevate into religious experience range (> 3,000) over the weekend. Other factors, like unfavorable upper level winds may prevent anything major from forming, but the forecast convective energy potential is massive.
Ive never seen a surface forecast showing a CAPE index over 5,000 before, but saw one today for the NW Carib. Extreme weather
events like F5 tornados are associated with numbers that high...what it means in the NW Carib outside of
hurricane season, who knows, but it is certainly worth watching.
Nothing big and bad forecast as yet, but wow, there are some strange things shaping up.
From Atlantic Discussion:
"
...
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough extends over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and
western
Caribbean. A surface trough is over the western Caribbean
and as of 0300 UTC had an axis extending from 21N85W to 11N83W.*
The combination of upper- level diffluence on the eastern side of*
the upper-level trough and convergence associated with the surface
trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection*
across the Caribbean waters between 78W and 84W. Broad high*
pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support*
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh*
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to 9
ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by both
satellite
altimeters and
current buoy data.*
Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades over the central Caribbean through Fri
night. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of
Colombia. A western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift*
westward across
Central America through at least Thursday. It is
possible that a low pressure center may develop along the trough,
and move across
Nicaragua and Honduras, emerging into the Gulf of
Honduras by Thursday. The pressure gradient between the trough*
and the
Atlantic Ocean high pressure will result in fresh to*
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and in
parts of the*
western Caribbean Sea.
....
"