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Old 21-05-2018, 11:10   #1
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Sailing in Mexico

Hello,
I'm currently in Belize and am planning on heading up to Mexico in the next week.
I'm well aware of the threat of hurricanes in Mexico in late June. I'm planning on being there for about a month before heading back down towards Honduras.
Will probably spend most of the time in Isla Mujeres.

I couldn't find anything online regarding sailing on the east coast of Mexico during this month/season.

If anyone has any information, tips etc it will be much appropriated!

Cheers!
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Old 21-05-2018, 11:55   #2
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Carefull with entrance to Xcalak. If the sea has been running for a few days it can be pretty scary. Once you get inside it's kind of bumpy too. The 2 big bays further north are good but don't believe your chart plotter or CMap anyway. Porto Aventuras is nice but but very little dock space. The anchorage in Porto Morelos has really poor holding, there are a couple of morring balls right in front of town.
All along this coast the current is strong but inside about 120' it starts to fall off.
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Old 21-05-2018, 13:10   #3
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Keep a close eye on the weather, there are some very unusual patterns shaping up for the NW Carib.

This AM's 72 hour surface forecast shows a tropical wave entering the NW Carib and intersecting with a low near Bay Islands. Later in the season this feature convergence often results in instant hurricanes spinning up off the coast of Honduras. Upper level winds are not favorable for tropical weather development at this time, but this certainly bears watching.*

CAPE Index in the region is forecast to start increasing Thurs-Friday and elevate into religious experience range (> 3,000) over the weekend. Other factors, like unfavorable upper level winds may prevent anything major from forming, but the forecast convective energy potential is massive.

Ive never seen a surface forecast showing a CAPE index over 5,000 before, but saw one today for the NW Carib. Extreme weather events like F5 tornados are associated with numbers that high...what it means in the NW Carib outside of hurricane season, who knows, but it is certainly worth watching.

Nothing big and bad forecast as yet, but wow, there are some strange things shaping up.


From Atlantic Discussion:

"
...

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
western Caribbean. A surface trough is over the western Caribbean
and as of 0300 UTC had an axis extending from 21N85W to 11N83W.*
The combination of upper- level diffluence on the eastern side of*
the upper-level trough and convergence associated with the surface
trough is supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection*
across the Caribbean waters between 78W and 84W. Broad high*
pressure over the subtropical Atlantic continues to support*
moderate to fresh tradewinds over most of the basin, except fresh*
to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights of 8 to 9
ft persist over the central Caribbean as confirmed by both satellite
altimeters and current buoy data.*

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to
locally strong trades over the central Caribbean through Fri
night. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft will affect the NW coast of
Colombia. A western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift*
westward across Central America through at least Thursday. It is
possible that a low pressure center may develop along the trough,
and move across Nicaragua and Honduras, emerging into the Gulf of
Honduras by Thursday. The pressure gradient between the trough*
and the Atlantic Ocean high pressure will result in fresh to*
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and in parts of the*
western Caribbean Sea.

....
"Click image for larger version

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Old 22-05-2018, 14:23   #4
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

That strange weather pattern now has a name "Invest 90L"...NHC is now officially monitoring for potential tropical weather development.
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Old 22-05-2018, 15:05   #5
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

In a real storm, about the only place to hide out might be Porto Aventuras if you could get a spot along the high wall. Short of a real hurricane maybe, the island in Bahia de Ascension is good to hide behind. It has a couple of sides to choose from. It's not uncommon for boats to spend a week there, waiting.
Much better places in Belize.
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Old 22-05-2018, 17:53   #6
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

This is not forecast as yet to turn into anything major, but now is not the best of times to go venturing N...parallel to its path.

Its very interesting, to me at least, to see the dynamics at play here: trofs, tropical waves, a low, massive CAPE Index numbers...but unfavorable upper level winds discouraging further development. If those upper level winds were not to continue as forecast then the situation could change quickly

My concern if heading up to MX would be that with all these dynamics at play things could change suddenly.
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Old 22-05-2018, 18:27   #7
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Puerto Morelos one of the nicest and safest places we have visited in 11 years of cruising.

But holding poor and I would not trust the moorings, El Cid marina is very nice and a safe place to leave the boat if you want to do some land cruising.
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Old 23-05-2018, 10:23   #8
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

there is a new today weather something trying to freak folks about regarding possibility of formation and stormation. keep good weather eye and consult frequently the weather in area. could be a bad year.
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Old 23-05-2018, 12:37   #9
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Current NHC forecast expects no "stormation" until 90L gets into GOM, but there are lots of t-storms forecast for Isla Mujeres area.
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Old 23-05-2018, 12:48   #10
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by belizesailor View Post
Current NHC forecast expects no "stormation" until 90L gets into GOM, but there are lots of t-storms forecast for Isla Mujeres area.
ahaa a so the cute lil X east of belize is 90L, eh. well, have fun with it.
6-10 inches from the cute lil x when it gets to fla or louisiana.. love the tracking so far. just went to my fun storm site today and this is the cute lil X... predictions no more than ts producing 6-10 in rain. so, donot forget your soap, the blow dryer should work well enough ( 2 models predict up to 45-50 kts winds, 5 show less than 40 kt winds). wearers of toupees, use better glue.
htis one is practice for later in season.
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Old 25-05-2018, 06:07   #11
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Wow, rapid change in past 24 hours...now 90% odds of tropical weather develpment!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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Old 25-05-2018, 08:32   #12
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

yup. more intensity and development. imagine that.
looks like you all get your pastafarians alberto.....
hope you folks did not procrastinate your preps.
current nhc report shows tropical storm alberto ready to get your gom butts washed and blown.
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Old 25-05-2018, 11:36   #13
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag View Post
there is a new today weather something trying to freak folks about regarding possibility of formation and stormation. keep good weather eye and consult frequently the weather in area. could be a bad year.
I like that term "stormation"...saves a lot of typing and conveys it all in one word. 👍

Stormation has now occured and it has a name: "Alberto".

Wonder where Jblas (OP) is now?
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Old 25-05-2018, 12:28   #14
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

Interesting watching how strong upper level winds have affected stormation. First they discouraged stormation in the S of the NW Carib and now Alberto is tracking N straight up the weaker gap in upper level winds.

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Old 25-05-2018, 13:47   #15
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Re: Sailing in Mexico

[QUOTE=belizesailor;
Wonder where Jblas (OP) is now?[/QUOTE]



Cell phone (4g)coverage is good as you get further north along MX. The shore is lined with resorts. In the south it's not very good and the 2 Bahia's in the middle have none. You do get good FM radio from Isla Mujeres all the way to Guatemala.
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