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Old 13-03-2018, 03:37   #1
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Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

It's a hypothetical. TC Cyclone Linda is very unlikely to cause us any trouble, but to educate me. What is the smart move if predictions weren't so good.

A ridge coming through from West to East is expected to push it south east, but what if there was no ridge and the predictions were uncertain if it would grow or not.

Should I leave or stay, if I were concerned, I think I would leave with a bit more notice.

There isn't much notice in this case it's 900klms away, travelling at 35klms/hr. Why isn't there much notice ?

Would I go north ?


I'm just above the name Brisbane.
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Old 13-03-2018, 03:44   #2
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Hi Dave,
you did not state where you are located as this would greatly assist any information that can be forwarded to you.



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Old 13-03-2018, 04:44   #3
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

In Brisbane, on the map the boat is just above the a in the word Brisbane, in Manly marina on the coast.
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Old 13-03-2018, 04:51   #4
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Hi Dave,
know the area reasonably well. While there have been some pretty ferocious storms around Brisbane I cannot recall a cyclone coming that far south since one hit Noosa about 35 years ago. If you are in the marina at Manly I would not be overly concerned at this time. I would suggest a watch and see action. Plenty of places to go hide if you have to go down towards the Gold coast and mangroves or marinas further up the rivers.
Looking at the Low it appears from the forecasts I have looked at it will stay well offshore. As always its always prudent to watch and make decisions as time progress's. I think you are in the best spot at the moment.

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Old 13-03-2018, 08:04   #5
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Head for the mangroves.
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:22   #6
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Id head for one of the more protected marinas like Hope Island
which I guess is fair to say is more the Gold Coast region
just not so far south
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:38   #7
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

do your prep, strong ropes, stow loose stuff/ linda is cat 1 and not expected to make landfall / you may be too late to move if the storm changes it's mind
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:41   #8
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

I have no experience in Australia, but considerable hurricane experience elsewhere, so this is a more general reply:

It looks like you have about 36 hours to play with, so if you are going to go, you need to go NOW, in order to get set up wherever you wind up. The winds would help you go north, but you would have to be able to enter wherever you wind up, so wave action would need to be monitored. One presumes that there will be swell left over from the passage of the storm, as it continues south.

The winds are nowhere near enough to cause major problems for a well prepared boat, assuming that the forecast is anywhere near correct. Well prepared means stripped of things like your headsail (maybe your mainsail, as well) bimini, etc. and includes properly securing your boat to its dock, or anchoring properly for a storm. Lots of info on those!

As a "survivor" of several hurricanes, most importantly Irma (in the BVI), I have to say that at some point, cats lying in the water, do take flight. How much wind does that take? No idea....100 knots? 150 knots? 200 knots? Not a clue, but at some point it happens. You are talking about winds way way less than that, so I don't think it's a concern, but if it were, you would have no choice but to either move or haul out and strap down. This is from a hard core catamaran enthusiast, by the way, not an alarmist monohuller!

Wave action, however, might be a problem. Protection from that is what I would be most concerned about. Your best place might be right where you are, if the marina is well built and/or well situated. If not, is there somewhere nearby, preferably with mangroves, or some other sort of cushioning? If you are struggling to find appropriate protection from wave action, that's when I would start thinking about heading somewhere else that is better. My instincts would tell me north, but as I said, that's just from looking at the situation, from afar. I have no knowledge of that coast.

The variables are 1) another poster has mentioned that he has no recollection of storms coming as far south as you, although I seem to remember reading about one that hit Brisbane....could be wrong. His point seems to be that the storm will either dissipate or not come that far south, which would argue against going north. To that, I would say that storms are reaching more and more out of their traditional areas these days, probably due to warming oceans. So the use of the word "never" is becoming less appropriate. 2) If, in fact, the storm will either not go south or will dissipate when it does, then that argues for going south. Sort of like getting up to San Diego when there are hurricanes off the coast of Baja California, with which I am intimately familiar! But, bear in mind that heading south would, at some point, probably mean a much worse direction with regard to winds and waves, so that should be taken into account.

Take it from here. Find out if your water temperature is warmer than it has usually been. Watch the forecasts. Think carefully about your alternative locations, with regard to protection from wave action. Prepare, wherever you are, and don't leave it too late. It may just be a good exercise as it doesn't look like you are dealing with that much of a threat, but it's good to work these things through.....makes it easier if it does get more serious, or if sometime in the future, you find yourself in a pickle.

Best of luck,
Tim
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:44   #9
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

https://www.facebook.com/NqCqWeather...c_ref=NEWSFEED
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Old 13-03-2018, 08:53   #10
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Some of the slips at Manly are very open to the chop that gets through the entrance. I've seen these be really tough in 30kts. If you are in one of these I d be moving. Most of the slips are tucked in and pretty well protected.
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Old 13-03-2018, 09:27   #11
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

I have no experience in your area, except to note that I recall the river in Brisbane being in full spate after cyclone-related rains caused it to flood and seeing a lot of boats torn from their docks and moorings and coming to a bad end when meeting bridges. That would discourage me from staying in that river. Hasn't Queensland already been well-saturated due to unexpected heavy rain this season?
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Old 13-03-2018, 11:33   #12
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

With a large hurricane, this is already too late to move anywhere.

Material damage is one thing, life damage is another one. You will be safer on land than on the water.

Taking the decision to leave a marina while an hurricane is coming is crazy.
- you are not 100% sure it will not change course and hit you while off-shore.
- you will endanger your life (this is your own decision, and you may be ok with that), but at some point you will call for rescue. This will endanger other people life because of your bad decision.
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Old 13-03-2018, 12:00   #13
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_S View Post
It's a hypothetical. TC Cyclone Linda is very unlikely to cause us any trouble, but to educate me. What is the smart move if predictions weren't so good.

A ridge coming through from West to East is expected to push it south east, but what if there was no ridge and the predictions were uncertain if it would grow or not.

Should I leave or stay, if I were concerned, I think I would leave with a bit more notice.

There isn't much notice in this case it's 900klms away, travelling at 35klms/hr. Why isn't there much notice ?

Would I go north ?





I'm just above the name Brisbane.

Hi Dave,
I left Mooloolaba yesterday and moved up to Hervey Bay. Thought of staying behind Fraser Island but then decided to go to the Hervey Bay marina. It does not look like Linda will give us more than strong winds. Stayed at Manley two weeks ago. Somewhat exposed but I am sure with normal storm prep you will be ok.
Check the unmanned boats near you and alert the marina if they are not securely tied.
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Old 13-03-2018, 12:38   #14
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Dave,

Firstly, Linda was quite noticeable 2 days ago on the Satellite map, as something to watch, while it was just a low on the monsoon trough, only one amorphous isobar, shown on the MSL. Make it part of your daily routine to look at the MSL, and the Sat. photo, and you'll learn of their presence before they become an issue.

As to plans, take a look at all the charts for the Broadwater, and find yourself a cosy niche in the mangroves. However, you don't want to wait, and here's where it starts to interfere with real life, jobs and such. Because if you go be in the mangroves, you're not at work, and you'll want to stay safe till the storm goes away, so plan on a week.

As to your location in the Harbor, it's not perfect, but the wind and surge are what will be the problem. It looks as if the water's 25 d. C at Cape Byron (use the Sea Surface Temp portion of the BOM site), so plenty of energy to sustain Linda once she's a sub tropical low. You're safe from flood waters, because they'll spread out, and slow down, and there's plenty of room for that in Moreton Bay. Wind is the enemy, and remove the sails, stow them below. Double up on dock lines, adding chafing gear at the cleats, dock and boat, and I think you'll be okay in the marina, with all sail and canvas removed.

It can be kinda scary facing a cyclone spider webbed into the mangroves, but they offer really good wind protections. Friends up a mangrove creek in Fiji had 50 kn at the masthead, and 0 on deck.

Last time I looked, Linda was forecast to turn to the SE, and away from the East Coast.

Ann
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Old 13-03-2018, 13:13   #15
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Re: Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

Anchored at myora now and not expecting more than 50knot gusts from the se so not worth my while moving down to canaipa.

We anchored at canaipa for the tail end of Debbie last year, 100% protected until it went over and we had a reversal from the nw at around 40 knots.
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