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hellosailor · 07-06-2014, 12:04

The Panama Canal has just been obsoleted, if you can believe the press releases. Russia, China, and Nicaragua have inked a deal where supposedly a Chinese firm will build a new supercanal through Nicaragua in exchange for a 100-year lease on it, and Russia will provide military "security" on both coasts.

Supposedly to begin construction next year and start passing traffic in 2019 with full capacity some years after that.

But of course, there have been many announcements for many canal plans for many years as it is. Whether his one is posturing and headed for the scrapheap...who knows.

category4jay · 07-06-2014, 12:15

I have been following this story for a long time. As you have said there have been many press releases throughout the years on this but nothing really seems to happen. I do believe that Daniel Ortega DOES want his to happen and is working with his Cuban, Russian, and Chinese cronies to make it happen. Big question? Will the US let it happen? One thing is for sure IF it happens it will result in an environmental disaster unlike any other.

Aussiesuede · 07-06-2014, 12:49

Russia, China, and a Banana? This can't end well...

category4jay · 07-06-2014, 12:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aussiesuede

Russia, China, and a Banana? This can't end well...

Thats funny mate!

markpierce · 07-06-2014, 13:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by hellosailor

The Panama Canal has just been obsoleted, if you can believe the press releases. ...

New, much larger, locks under construction at the Panama Canal:

Pelagic · 07-06-2014, 15:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aussiesuede

Russia, China, and a Banana? This can't end well...

Yes...Drunk!...hungry one hour after eating... and constipated!

)

Eder · 07-06-2014, 16:36

How would this be up to the USA to "allow" happen?

How could this be worse for the environment than the other canal?

Its nice to see that mega projects can still get off the ground in some areas of the world unlike the US & Canada where we are held hostage by washed up movie stars .

belizesailor · 07-06-2014, 17:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by category4jay

I have been following this story for a long time. As you have said there have been many press releases throughout the years on this but nothing really seems to happen. I do believe that Daniel Ortega DOES want his to happen and is working with his Cuban, Russian, and Chinese cronies to make it happen. Big question? Will the US let it happen? One thing is for sure IF it happens it will result in an environmental disaster unlike any other.

Yes, old story....since before the Panama Canal was built, Nicaragua was evaluated as a route and favored by many, but opportunity to usurp the Panama Canal project from Colombia/France presented itself first. As I recall, the USA also signed an agreement with Nicaragua blocking development of the Nicaraguan route for a long time.

The USA relinquished rights to the PC because it was no longer of strategic military/commerce value to the USA (as it was originally) and it was poorly run and losing money. Given that, I don't think the USA would try to block the Nic canal per se, but might be concerned about the political alliance behind it.

I don't think the USA is in the position it was back in PC construction days, or even in the 1980s, to prevent such a canal from happening.

The deal sounds to be a bit shady, but so was the deal for the PC (both the French and American deals).

Also, I don't think a Nic canal would spell doom for the PC. I suspect there is enough traffic to keep both the PC and a Nic canals busy. This is the driving reason the PC is being expanded. For example, I have a friend who works in logostics at HP, they still run huge container ships, too big for the current PC, around the Horn because they simply can't move enough volume through the PC. And having a second route, with shorter distances to some markets, would likely create additional traffic.

belizesailor · 07-06-2014, 17:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eder

...

How could this be worse for the environment than the other canal?

...

While the PC certainly chewed thru a lot of virgin jungle and wet lands, it also had the totally unintended effect of preserving large sections of both till today. Some of the jungle/wet land areas around the PC are amazing. Spent a week anchored up the Rio Chagres for example, way cool. Smithsonian also has a research base there.

Back in the day of PC construction, environmental concerns were non existent, today of course very different.

Nicaragua is a beautiful country and some possible routes for the canal could be truly tragic. No way to dig a ditch that big without significant environmental impact, but I don't think it has to be an unmitigated environmental disaster.

markpierce · 07-06-2014, 18:00

What freedom-loving persons would want to transit a Nicaraguan canal? How many cruise ships visit that country?

Pelagic · 07-06-2014, 18:12

I for one.....Competition is good and would result in cost savings and weather options for all the major shipping companies

That is another meaning for freedom

hellosailor · 07-06-2014, 18:48

"How would this be up to the USA to "allow" happen?"
Um, how about, it is the business of sovereign nations and there's nothing for us to allow or not allow?
The problem goes back to when the US "gave back" the Panama Canal, which we built after supporting the revolution that created Panama, partly so we could build the canal and "own" it. The politics of creating the PC were anything but PC, so to speak.

I'd have given it back too--but insisted that we restore the ecology by filling it back in first. I think Teddy Roosevelt would have agreed with that.

"How could this be worse for the environment than the other canal?"
The new canal plans are IIRC for a sea-level canal, no locks, so anything that wants to crawl or swim through, can and will.
But considering that the entire panamerican isthmus is a relatively young geological barrier and there was no barrier there before it emerged....one could argue that it is PROPER to remove that barrier and let global critters go about evolving anyway.

As to the expansion of the current canal? The propaganda, ergh, press release indicated the new canal will still be significantly larger than the new "supersized" Panama Canal.

I think Nicaragua figures they'll steal Panama's lunch. I'm not sure what the Russians get out of this but I'd bet Putin has something in mind. And the Chinese will be operating both canals, which assures them the best access to global markets. Not to mention, a great amount of "face".

belizesailor · 07-06-2014, 19:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by markpierce

What freedom-loving persons would want to transit a Nicaraguan canal? How many cruise ships visit that country?

Huh?

Maybe the freedom-loving Sandanistas who took back their country from a USA supported dictator.

Sand crab · 07-06-2014, 19:11

They haven't even decided on a route yet and just about any route they take is about 200 km of work. The lake is about 80 KM extra but it's not a freebie and will have to be dredged. And the new Panama Canal will be ready in about a year so it's hard to justify the $40 billion for a new one and I'll bet it costs way more than that. This projects is at least 10 years out but I'll bet you a Fat Tire beer that it never happens.
The Nicaragua Canal Delays Begin - Preben Ormen's Blog

And I don't think the Chinese operate the Panama Canal.
http://www.pennwellblogs.com/mae/200...te-panama.html