Mono in distress

[svseachange]

Thanks everyone for your thoughts on the passage and routes Australia to/from NZ.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

Umm, Barney, "many boats lost and abandoned EVERY YEAR"??? Yes, there have been some lost over the last few decades, but not many every year. Last time I checked, several hundred yachts clear into NZ every year. They come from the tropical islands, Australia and sometimes direct from distant origins. Most of them later depart for other destinations.


They must not have known how dangerous that passage is!

(...)

We sailed in in 2004 and out in 2006. The year we sailed in we got badly knocked down while a Prout cat belonging to a friend started breaking apart. Both us and our cat friend made it, but both were close shaves. How good we sailed without an EPIRB back then!

Alas, on their way out in 2005 boats were not quite so lucky. A nice Scandinavian doubleender boat was lost was lost and at least one other was lost maybe a month earlier. I remember overall in 2005 there were 3 boats lost in the departure season alone. I worked in the loft back then so listening to local news was pretty much our daily ritual.

We departed in 2006 and ever since then I follow all and any news about accidents in that area. I can only say the danger is not less than in the Biscaya in the Northern Hemisphere. Except that NZ is so far from the world and their maritime news do not make big headlines here (in Europe and the US).

Still, some do - like Niña, or that big luxurious yacht that got bashed and her (2?) crew killed (I think last year).

You are probably right to correct me and say 'not every year'. I think so. Maybe all the boats get lost in odd years where the sail in and out gap to NZ is too narrow and storms there are stronger and more densely packed than in other years.

So, I stand corrected on 'every year'. I do not have a paper nor digital statistics on this.

Just frequently enough and in numbers high enough to justify a long look from any sailor considering the passages. These are rough waters asking for a good craft and a skilled crew, not balmy tropics.

Cheers,
b.

[JPA Cate]

The weather system that developed and eventually harmed the boat in this thread eventually became a compound low with 3 lows in it, and was hammering NZ this morning when I looked at the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) chart/map. It is typical for NSW cut off lows to contain some nastiness. They form on a trough, then leap out into the Tasman. Reports on the sea conditions would have been available via SSB radio twice a day. So, they could have known what was developing if the boat were equipped with SSB.

When they learned they were in the soup, they were in a bit of a pickle. They would have been experiencing winds from N, NW, and even W before the low center passed them. Not propitious for diverting north for Brisbane or Bundaberg, both are entry ports. This might have been a time to heave to, or fore-reach slowly and wait for the center to pass (you'll see the barometer rise). Then, on the S or SW, have the wind and seas from behind you and enter farther north. The dangerous sea conditions would have closed some of the harbor entrances. (Go back and look at El Pinguino's posted pic of the water coming up into the Manly ferry.) Anyhow, it turned to custard for them, and lucky to have been safely rescued.

I wonder what happened with the rudder????

Rescue is so easy these days that few people seem to stay with their boats to work out the problems.

Sure wouldn't want to run into that steely in the middle of the night, no lights on it.

Ann

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

I wonder what happened with the rudder????

Rescue is so easy these days that few people seem to stay with their boats to work out the problems.

Sure wouldn't want to run into that steely in the middle of the night, no lights on it.

Ann

After I saw that line off the bow I thought maybe that they had a sea-anchor that was overwhelmed and let the boat fall back on its rudder down a wave (from that other thread discussion) causing the damage. Just speculating. Sure looked like it was still in ok shape. If it had been rolled multiple times, someone sure did a great job mounting all the extras.. and the rigging!

[El Pinguino]

Nothing like a bit of 20/20 hindsight from a comfortable berth ashore...

That's about a 1200 mile run.. lets say 10 days, possibly more.

No way can you forecast out to a week, let alone 10 days when you have a BG landmass like Straya to windward.. so as DumnMad said earlier there is a good chance you will get smacked at least once on the passage.. how bad will you get smacked is the question.

You can get a loop of archived weather for the period giving the daily analysis for the period from here... Analysis Chart Archive
It looked pretty good at the start. Who was to know that the low over central Oz was going to deepen to that degree when it crossed the coast? Sticks out like DBs now of course.


Some bedtime reading ( sistership to mine) ... Maybe late Feb is a bad time to be out and about thereabouts.. https://yachtcamomile.co.uk/2013/02/

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

We sailed in in 2004 and out in 2006. The year we sailed in we got badly knocked down while a Prout cat belonging to a friend started breaking apart. Both us and our cat friend made it, but both were close shaves. How good we sailed without an EPIRB back then!

Alas, on their way out in 2005 boats were not quite so lucky. A nice Scandinavian doubleender boat was lost was lost and at least one other was lost maybe a month earlier. I remember overall in 2005 there were 3 boats lost in the departure season alone. I worked in the loft back then so listening to local news was pretty much our daily ritual.

We departed in 2006 and ever since then I follow all and any news about accidents in that area. I can only say the danger is not less than in the Biscaya in the Northern Hemisphere. Except that NZ is so far from the world and their maritime news do not make big headlines here (in Europe and the US).

Still, some do - like Niña, or that big luxurious yacht that got bashed and her (2?) crew killed (I think last year).

You are probably right to correct me and say 'not every year'. I think so. Maybe all the boats get lost in odd years where the sail in and out gap to NZ is too narrow and storms there are stronger and more densely packed than in other years.

So, I stand corrected on 'every year'. I do not have a paper nor digital statistics on this.

Just frequently enough and in numbers high enough to justify a long look from any sailor considering the passages. These are rough waters asking for a good craft and a skilled crew, not balmy tropics.

Cheers,
b.

Not so sure about NZ/Oz and v/v but I think you are not far off the mark with 'most years' for boats coming and going from the islands... 2014 coming down from Tonga a yacht ( Cat 1 Kiwi boat etc etc ) a week ahead of us lost her rudder and was abandoned. Boats coming down a month or so after us got hammered. We just got a damned good thrashing....

[scruzin]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

The weather system that developed and eventually harmed the boat in this thread eventually became a compound low with 3 lows in it, and was hammering NZ this morning when I looked at the MSLP (mean sea level pressure) chart/map. It is typical for NSW cut off lows to contain some nastiness. They form on a trough, then leap out into the Tasman. Reports on the sea conditions would have been available via SSB radio twice a day. So, they could have known what was developing if the boat were equipped with SSB.

Ann

Yes, I agree they could have known what was about to hit them, although figuring out the right course action is another matter.

As someone who is contemplating a Tasman crossing one day, how useful are the long-range forecasts for the Tasman? For example, using (NZ-based) PredictWind (and a sat phone or Iridium Go) with weather routing, could such a storm have been avoided? Or did it spring up too quickly?

BTW, many folks sailing from NZ to AU suggest a stopover at Lord Howe to await a suitable weather window for the final leg.

[fxykty]

There were two boats who left NZ bound for NSW in the same departure window. Both used the same departure window, prior to the low developing into the large system that it did. Fair enough, a 10 day forecast at this time of year is getting pretty shaky past the first 4-5 days and the departure was totally reasonable. The other yacht paid attention to daily forecasts, spotted the developing system, and altered course to avoid the worst of the weather. They ended up having a smooth passage and entered into a port far to the north. The stricken boat, for whatever reason, continued on towards their intended port and bore the brunt of the weather. Too much trust in their experience and boat? But it seems to confirm that the best plan for heavy weather is to not be there.

To answer the previous poster's question, successive long-range forecasts are useful. Update every 12 hours and you can avoid a developing system. As long as you commit to following a routing that takes you away from your intended course/destination, if that's what it takes to avoid the developing weather.

The information I'm referencing for this post comes from the developer of PredictWind during a seminar this weekend.

[scruzin]

Originally Posted by fxykty

There were two boats who left NZ bound for NSW in the same departure window. Both used the same departure window, prior to the low developing into the large system that it did. Fair enough, a 10 day forecast at this time of year is getting pretty shaky past the first 4-5 days and the departure was totally reasonable. The other yacht paid attention to daily forecasts, spotted the developing system, and altered course to avoid the worst of the weather. They ended up having a smooth passage and entered into a port far to the north. The stricken boat, for whatever reason, continued on towards their intended port and bore the brunt of the weather. Too much trust in their experience and boat? But it seems to confirm that the best plan for heavy weather is to not be there.

To answer the previous poster's question, successive long-range forecasts are useful. Update every 12 hours and you can avoid a developing system. As long as you commit to following a routing that takes you away from your intended course/destination.

The information I'm referencing for this post comes from the developer of PredictWind during a seminar this weekend.

Good to know. What was the other yacht? Do you happen to know if they used PredictWind? Or NZ Met Service? I ask because it would be interesting to see their track. I just started using PredictWind and they offer free tracking on the web at https://forecast.predictwind.com/tra...display/VESSEL

[daletournier]

I think being able to get weather forecasts at sea is crucial. In the past I used sailmail via iridium to download gribs. I found it frustrating and expensive, also I didnt use it as a phone and to text it was very agricultural.

Ive just purchased a inreach. It won't recieve gribs but it will give you 24,48 and 72 hr forecasts via text. This is using a service by Ocens called Spotcast, the service is super cheap, its like $8/month.

I thought about iridium go as I like predictawind as the grib gives you greater overall view. I like the ruggedness of the inreach, it can act as another (similar) epirb.

Easy to be a side line critic but having the ability to see that low coming using technology could have been the difference between having your boat or not.



Sent from my vivo Y35 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by scruzin

Yes, I agree they could have known what was about to hit them, although figuring out the right course action is another matter.

As someone who is contemplating a Tasman crossing one day, how useful are the long-range forecasts for the Tasman? For example, using (NZ-based) PredictWind (and a sat phone or Iridium Go) with weather routing, could such a storm have been avoided? Or did it spring up too quickly?

BTW, many folks sailing from NZ to AU suggest a stopover at Lord Howe to await a suitable weather window for the final leg.

Accuracy of weather forecasts tends to drop off at an alarmingly rapid rate after more than a few days .. lots of info out there on this subject.

How far out did anyone predict NZ was going to get the weather it has just copped ( from the same 'system' as led to this abandonment).

On a long passage the best you can hope for is that you get clear of the land.

Just because the info has been nicely packaged by Predictwind or suchlike does not make it infallable.

I reckon the best early warning system comes to you direct from the NOAA sats..... this was about 20 mins ago.... no dins on the patio for me tonight, we've just had one of the dogs blown off its chain....

Latest forecast says 'Shower or two. Possible storm'.

[scruzin]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Accuracy of weather forecasts tends to drop off at an alarmingly rapid rate after more than a few days .. lots of info out there on this subject.

How far out did anyone predict NZ was going to get the weather it has just copped ( from the same 'system' as led to this abandonment).

On a long passage the best you can hope for is that you get clear of the land.

Just because the info has been nicely packaged by Predictwind or suchlike does not make it infallable.] storm'.

Sure, weather forecasting is not a perfect science.

FWIW, PredictWind seem to do a good job of integrating multiple weather models (including their own), which, in theory is better than relying on the forecast from just one national weather service, such as AU BoM or NZ MetService. The Iridium Go app is very good too.

That said all weather models are only as good as their inputs, and the Southern Ocean is a vast ocean with rather sparse weather observations.

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by scruzin

Good to know. What was the other yacht? Do you happen to know if they used PredictWind? Or NZ Met Service? I ask because it would be interesting to see their track. I just started using PredictWind and they offer free tracking on the web at https://forecast.predictwind.com/tra...display/VESSEL

I don't know the name of the other yacht but yes, they are subscribers to PredictWind. Hence the knowledge of what they did to avoid the developing low by the PredictWind developer.

[fxykty]

I think the point to be taken here is that long range forecasts, and departure planning recommendations, should not be relied on for providing accurate information beyond a few days to perhaps a week. Using multiple sources of forecasting models like in PredictWind helps in evaluating the longer term reliability of the forecasts - if all four forecasts yield similar results and/or weather routing tracks, then the long range is more reliable. If forecasts diverge, not so much, and don't rely on anything past the next few days.

But it's not set and forget. Download new forecasts every 12 hours and redo your routing each time. Include a large area so you can see the systems forming 1000km away.

In the case of NZ to AU, include the East Coast from Tasmania to Queensland, as its those lows spinning off the coast that can grow big right in your way once you're half way across.

PredictWind is relatively expensive (relative to downloading raw grins from free sources), especially if you combine it with the cost of an IridiumGo and a data plan, but it together they provide worldwide coverage and multiple forecasting models, plus tools to do weather routing, in a format that means you don't have to be a meteorologist to get actionable weather and routing information.

Each one of us needs to decide for ourselves what level of information we need to manage weather related risk at a level that works for each of us.

[El Pinguino]

I'm pretty impressed that Predictwind combines all the assorted grib models but I seriously doubt they apply human intervention to the interpretation.......

They provide a world wide product... they would need to have 'local' knowledge of the entire planet's weather systems to modify the output.... not going to happen....

What they do is good and maybe it is a model BoM and Metservice could follow.

To suggest that they have a superior product is - I think - not correct... Bom and Metservice would also use all the models out there and apply rather a lot of local knowledge. Maybe they ( BoM and Metservice )should look beyond 'Chatham Islands... fine later' , the analysis, and the prognosis presentation they have been using since Noah was a deck boy.

Full marks to Predictwind for marketing.

Re the other stuff... give the same weather info to ten different skippers... you will get ten different responses.