Man Washes up in Marshall Islands 'After 16 Months Adrift'

[SaltyMonkey]

Originally Posted by denverd0n

Based on what assumptions, though? At this point we can't be sure that he is telling us the truth about where he started from, when he left, where he first began drifting, or anything else, really.

I was trying to answer: How feasible is a claim of 16 months to make this journey?

If my original calculations were correct (they were not), 10 nm per hour would have been impossible.

We don't know the current vectors that would lead to only an average of 10nm per day. A straight steady current at 1 knot would be 24 nm per day. And so on. W/o better info on currents in pacific and direction this calculation is a bust.

Anyway...

[dannc]

I found the name of the book, Survive the Savage Sea, I remembered reading decades ago. They were "only" adrift for 38 days before being picked up.

Just prior to being rescued, they had managed to capture enough fresh water and food that they were in good enough shape to start rowing eastward. They had been in pretty rough shape until getting some rain and catching critters to eat. The mother gave the family enemas from the not so clean, sorta fresh water, in the bottom of the boat. The theory being that the dirty water would make them sick if it was drunk but the enema would keep them from getting ill, yet allow them to get some water. They used a ladder rung for the enema.

Ya gotta do, what ya gotta do.

Speaking of do, they did not need TP, because their digestive system had shutdown from lack of food and they were not going to the bathroom much. The mother was a nurse and she was concerned with their going to the bathroom. They were very happy when they had enough water to drink and then pee as well has have enough food to poop. I remember reading the book how happy they were when some body had to poop.

If they man really was at sea for 16 months and starving, I would be surprised if his body would have had the energy to grow much of a beard.

[SaltyMonkey]

Originally Posted by Tim R.

My calculations come up with about .7mph.

8000/11,520=.69

11,520 is approximately how many hours there are in 16mo. The article claimes 8000 miles not nm so my figure is in mph.

Again, the more unbelievable part is surviving with enough water.

8000?? I wonder how they calculate that? Must be the Rhumb. That about 16.5 statute mpd

6,731 mi from Tapachula, MX (last town on the left) to Ebon Atoll great circle
= 5849 nm

5849 / 499 = 12 nm per day

8000 = 6952 nm

6952 / 499 = 14 nm per day

about the same

[boatman61]

No way would he have drifted as according to Cotemars map past Hawaian islands... the currents in the N Pacific are circular so they'd have taken him SW and then W... also you'd have put winds into the equation.. the miles covered would be more than the as a crow flies calculations so far..

[hogHunter]

That's the kind of story you think about on long crossings... what if...

[cburger]

Originally Posted by ontherocks83

Don't get me wrong I'm former Marine Infantry and an experienced outdoorsman/backpacker and I consider myself to be very resilient. I would try everything I could and give it all I had but Christ 16 months is just hard to fathom. Maybe I'd pull through maybe I wouldn't all I know is that man has my upmost respect for being able to do it.

Semper Fi, ontherocks, lets see if the story turns out to be true

[SaltyMonkey]

Originally Posted by boatman61

No way would he have drifted as according to Cotemars map past Hawaian islands... the currents in the N Pacific are circular so they'd have taken him SW and then W... also you'd have put winds into the equation.. the miles covered would be more than the as a crow flies calculations so far..

Good point

Ok I'll double the miles just for fun…it probably more

8000 = 6952 nm

(6952 * 2) / 499 days = 28 nm per day = 1.16 nm per hour

Still out?

[monstads]

Ok, this might be a bit tasteless, given the incredible story (assuming it's true), but isn't the paragraph below a bit funny? I mean, if you just spent 16 months floating around, would you rather wait for broken POC airplane to be repaired, or get in another boat?

From the second article:
The government has only one plane that can land at Ebon, but it is currently down for maintenance and is not expected to return to service until Tuesday at the earliest. Officials are considering sending a boat to pick up Ivan.

Also, a shout out to Norwegian Anthropology Students on Pacific Islands! Still trying to prove Heyerdahl right, I take it?

[Caracal]

Someone mentioned something about this putting bluewater cruisers into context. Yes, it does. But not in the sense the poster think it does. This boat (if we are to believe the story) failed so bad that he had to float along on it for 16 months. A lot of boats, apparently his too, will float for that long, but personally I prefer to have some form of propulsion and get places, preferably of my own choice.

[Cotemar]

Originally Posted by Caracal

I prefer to have some form of propulsion and get places, preferably of my own choice.

He had engines with no props on them. I am sure it was not his choice not to have props. Sheet happens out there.

[socaldmax]

Originally Posted by monstads

Also, a shout out to Norwegian Anthropology Students on Pacific Islands! Still trying to prove Heyerdahl right, I take it?

Or spending grant money having a nice tropical vacation in the middle of winter while looking for some bug that doesn't exist.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey

Good point

Ok I'll double the miles just for fun…it probably more

8000 = 6952 nm

(6952 * 2) / 499 days = 28 nm per day = 1.16 nm per hour

Still out?

Much better.. current is 10-20mpd... then allow for wind drift etc would make it closer and as he got further W he'd start catching SW'lies.. alter his drift rate and direction.
But.. I could be totally wrong..

[Caracal]

Originally Posted by Cotemar

He had engines with no props on them. I am sure it was not his choice not to have props. Sheet happen out there.

Yes, but the point was to compare it to a properly prepared, and shipshape, "bluewater cruiser". Plural engines according to you? And both without a prop?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Caracal

Yes, but the point was to compare it to a properly prepared, and shipshape, "bluewater cruiser". Plural engines according to you? And both without a prop?

Doubt it'd make much difference.. likely ran outa fuel 115 days earlier..

[captain58sailin]

As one who has facial hair, after 6 months ( my most recent spate) of not trimming my beard back, it is quite a bit longer than the man in the photo, but as a previous poster pointed out, I believe that was a shot of Tom Hanks.