Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 12-08-2012, 13:56   #16
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
If I remember correctly Tropical storm Allison formed in one day. A small cluster of thunderstorms in the morning and a tropical storm by the evening.
__________________

__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13-08-2012, 12:14   #17
Registered User
 
capn_billl's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Houston,Tx
Boat: Maxum 37'
Posts: 1,587
Re: Key West to Panama City Fl in August

Yes it did, it formed from a chain of thunderstorms interacting with a broad low attached to a tropical wave that had left Cape Verde 10 days ago.


That is my point. Assume ALL tropical waves will develop, and you will be wrong half the time. The last wave Invest 93L has turned north to Bermuda, that leaves 7 days before the next dangerous wave.

The OP's choices are few, 1. leave now in between two tropical waves, that might develop, or 2. wait until next year.

In the winter he will have to go to weather against massive cold fronts, one a few years...(decades), ago forced me to Call CG for help.

Or wait until the spring storms formed by jet stream shifts, and can be sudden, or wait until next summer right before the hurricane season, and hope an early storm doesn't delay him until yet the next year.

If he was going to do a Carribean loop? I would say Don't do it!

But a Florida Panhandle shortcut? Doable with constant weather checks, (get a satelite feed, and be ready to reef or motor to shore).

If he picks a lull in between two tropical waves I would do it. I go out fishing this time of year every month, Mostly calm conditions, I stay inshore if a wave is in the Gulf..(look at passageweather, or Buoyweather, or below)

Ocean Prediction Center - Product Loops
__________________

__________________
capn_billl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13-08-2012, 15:05   #18
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
You are correct, but there was no forecast for any tropical activity then 10-12 hours later we have a tropical storm 80 miles of the coast of Galveston moving in.
__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13-08-2012, 17:53   #19
Registered User
 
capn_billl's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Houston,Tx
Boat: Maxum 37'
Posts: 1,587
Re: Key West to Panama City Fl in August

Exactly they don't forcast it until too late. You just have to watch the tropical waves, and expect they might develop.

approximately 85% of intense Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 and greater) develop from tropical waves.


That doesn't mean you are safe when sailing between two waves, especially if one has already spawned a major storm.

But monitoring every day as the low develops will give you warning if the surface pressure at a wave starts dropping, it may not be a hurricane and make the news, but you will want to leave the area, especially if it develops circulation, and starts heading north.

On the Florida coast, that would be 24 hours warning. You will also know when the wave period starts to lengthen from 8 seconds to 11 to 15 seconds.

If you wait until it hits the news, chances are you are already in it. If you are midgulf you may see it before NOAA.
__________________
capn_billl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-08-2012, 15:42   #20
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
I understand you should keep an eye on the tropical waves but for how long? Tropical storm Allison was fueled by some disturbed weather(thunderstorms) that were an offshoot of a tropical wave that was on the west coast of Mexico, maybe 1500 miles away.
__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-08-2012, 16:07   #21
Registered User
 
capn_billl's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Houston,Tx
Boat: Maxum 37'
Posts: 1,587
Re: Key West to Panama City Fl in August

No system of avoiding bad weather is perfect, and I'm not going to claim this one is either.

I've been caught in several severe storms I didn't expect. No hurricanes yet,....knock on wood.

In most cases. IE this week the area between the two waves was calm. if the OP had taken off after the last wave passed, he would be anchored in Destin by now with only a few scattered squals.
__________________
capn_billl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14-08-2012, 16:12   #22
smj
Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2007
Boat: Searunner 38 catamaran
Posts: 3,654
Re: Key West to Panama City Fl in August

I absolutely agree with you. I was disagreeing with someone in this thread that said you would have weeks of notice before a tropical storm were to form over you. Wouldn't it be great if that were true!
__________________

__________________
smj is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
Panama

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off




Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 01:30.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.