Invest 99L-Florida boaters thoughts.

[four winds]

Curious what the weather nerds think about this one's development.

Currently anchored near Ft. Myers. Just cleaned the hull and thinking about an overnighter to St. Pete. Sleep Friday night and then head for Pensacola Pass leaving Saturday before noon. That would be two nights offshore for my boat. Winds look ok for a crossing right now.

This mornings models changed the tracks since last night. Now mostly showing crossing into the gulf through the Keys. Lots of warm water (possible intensification to Cat 1) and a weakening ridge, allowing a turn back towards central florida.

But it doesn't turn it could chase me to Alabama as stormy weather.

Need to decide soon or staying put is only option. Also option of weather the storm here or St. Pete. The overnighter to st. Pete is good winds, maybe scattered storms.

[four winds]

This from Jeff Masters, Weather Underground.


A high-stakes game of wait-and-see is underway with a large but disorganized tropical wave (Invest 99L) centered near the southeastern Bahama Islands on Thursday morning. The storm brought heavy rains of 3 - 5” over the past 24 hours to portions of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, and was generating winds near tropical storm force in the waters to the north of Hispaniola. 99L could become a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time over the next three days as it heads west-northwest through The Bahamas. If 99L develops a well-defined surface circulation and tropical storm-force winds, it will be called Tropical Storm Hermine.Satellite loops late Thursday morning showed the possibility that the game of wait-and-see may be ending. A well-defined surface circulation was attempting to form near the extreme southeastern portion of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. However, 99L’s heavy thunderstorms were several hundred miles to the southeast of this surface swirl, and there was very little thunderstorm activity near the center. Development of heavy thunderstorms was being inhibited by high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots and dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were favorable for development, though: 29°C (84°F). An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating 99L late Thursday morning, and at 11 am EDT found winds just below tropical storm-force--35 mph--a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola, on the east side of 99L's surface circulation.Figure 1. Satellite image of 99L taken at 10:39 am EDT August 25, 2016. A surface circulation center was trying to form over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.Track forecast for 99LA strong upper-level ridge now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Saturday, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track for the next three days. The storm will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 8 mph on Friday and Saturday, and reach the northwest Bahamas on Saturday and South Florida or the Florida Keys on Sunday. At that point, the models predict that the ridge of high pressure steering the storm will weaken, allowing 99L to turn more to the north. The timing of this turn and how far 99L might make it into the Gulf of Mexico is uncertain, though the Florida Gulf Coast is currently the area of the Gulf Coast considered to be most at risk by the models.Intensity forecast for 99LSince 99L is now pulling away from the high mountains of Hispaniola and is moving into an area of higher moisture and lower wind shear, the storm is likely to consolidate around the circulation center attempting to form in the southeast Bahamas. The storm should be able to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, on Friday through Sunday, and SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F)—conditions that are very favorable for development. However, there will still be some dry air for 99L to contend with, and the storm is large, which will slow down development. The sinking air over the Western Atlantic associated with a phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that is unfavorable for tropical storm development has decreased over the past two days, and it appears that the MJO will not be a factor in the intensity forecast for 99L.Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and UKMET, continued to show development of 99L into a tropical storm by Friday in their latest 0Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) runs. These models brought 99L across South Florida or the Florida Keys on Sunday and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall occurring on the Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the GFS, continued to insist that 99L would not develop through Sunday. The initial track forecast for 99L in this morning’s run of the GFS was too close to the coast of Hispaniola compared to the European model’s track, so I think the European’s model’s forecast will be superior to the GFS forecast. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 80%, respectively. Unfortunately, we don’t have much skill forecasting rapid intensification, but the possibility exists that 99L could undergo a period of rapid intensification in the 24 hours before landfall in South Florida and arrive there as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday. However, it is more likely that South Florida will experience a tropical storm. If the storm manages to spend an extra day of two over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, 99L will have additional time to organize and intensify, and there is a greater chance it will be a hurricane for its second potential landfall on Tuesday.Regardless of whether or not 99L ever becomes Tropical Storm Hermine, Florida is going to get a lot of rain from this system. The 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calls for a large area of 5” - 8” rains across southern and western Florida over the next week. Such rains could put stress on the 80-year-old dike that protects thousands of residents near Lake Okeechobee, as I discussed in a special post yesterday.

[RTB]

Originally Posted by four winds

But it doesn't turn it could chase me to Alabama as stormy weather.

Need to decide soon or staying put is only option.

It's a tough call since the models keep changing. But you do need a plan and get moving. Getting chased up the coast would be my worry, just like you say. I'd consider heading inland. Since you are right there, head up the river to Indiantown for a slip or haul out there. It's pretty cheap, but you better call to see if they have a place for you. Indiantown Marina - Home There is a 49' bridge, but you probably have less airdraft than that?

I haven't been up the river, but you might find a snug anchorage somewhere. Maybe others will chime in soon. Good luck man! Maybe the storm will fizzle and be a non-event...

Ralph

[four winds]

Local storm delayed my departure. And they are continuing offshore. Looks like more nearby.

Unfortunately haul out is not an option. But I'm in a tiny no fetch anchorage now. Up in the canals. No confidence in the other boats here staying put if it blows a stink though.

St. Pete wouldn't be hard to get to with good winds all night. Just the unpredictable storms this time of year. I could be up the Manatee River by late tomorrow.

Seems the two scenarios are dictated by when the high pressure ridge to the north weakens.

The storm gets to the Keys and turns up the state as tropical weather and lots of rain.

Or crosses into the gulf for a day or two and possibly builds strength and turns back to central Florida as a stronger storm.

Weather's coming either way. I could be here, the Manatee, or maybe up in the pan handle.

I guess this is sorta the sailor's gamble.

[MarkJ]

Guy who does great stuff is Levi Cowan. His videos, daily during bad weather are excellent.

Tropical Tidbits

[RTB]

You may be safer where you are than going to the Pan Handle/Big Bend area? I'm in Georgia, worrying that this system might back door us here (like Colin did). It truly is a gamble you are facing. So hauling out is not an option? If the forecast does get more reliable, and has the storm moving up the west coast, you could still do the Okeechobee Waterway and be on the east coast. Stuart has balls and transient slips. A nice place. We spent a month there earlier this year. Just my thoughts.

Ralph

[RTB]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Guy who does great stuff is Levi Cowan. His videos, daily during bad weather are excellent.

Tropical Tidbits

Yeah. Good stuff there Mark!

Ralph

[four winds]

That is a good source Mark. Presented by video and audio packs in the info.

He also stated it's still very uncertain. And that the GFS doesn't agree with the European models, especially concerning the weakening of the high ridge. He favored neither models. Also stated there is two rotations and no west (or east?) current to aid in building circulation. It's not well organized and moving relatively fast slowing the organization.

Masters favored the GFS and talked about the turn north.

Almost all speghetti noodles show a straight shot thru the gulf. Varying from Belize, to Texas, to Alabama.

Seems it's too early to tell, but almost too late to make a major move. Except maybe the Okeechobee. But they have a dam or levee or something they are worried about. Started releasing water today I think, so strong current. And what happens if the levee breaks, it's been in the news for weeks. Might be wrong but I think that issue is why all the extra water has been released lately causing the brown water and algae issues.

Anyway, my decision time passed 30 minutes ago. Leaning towards staying put and consider it a weather learning experience. We'll see how it goes.

[neptunesjester]

I'm in Pensacola and getting things ready to run just in case. You'd be better off where you are. You'd be stuck in Pensacola depending on your mast height with a haulout as your only option if the storm forms and makes landfall nearby. Bridges would block access to the most secure anchorages here for you.


Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by neptunesjester

I'm in Pensacola and getting things ready to run just in case. You'd be better off where you are. You'd be stuck in Pensacola depending on your mast height with a haulout as your only option if the storm forms and makes landfall nearby. Bridges would block access to the most secure anchorages here for you.


Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

I'm in the Panhandle myself hoping my new anchor comes in before the storm, if it becomes one.
I think your better off where you are too as you have more options and more places to run, and as has been said can maybe be on the east side if you have to.
Some of us older types remember Camille, and I am not saying this one is going to be like that one, I do not think it will, but it could.


Sent from my iPad Pro using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[four winds]

At 47' I've been under all the bridges in the panhandle, and that's the area I know best. But I guess I'll stay here.

Two commitments to do some boat work is a factor, too. I don't back out on folks so that was on my mind.

Only four other occupied boats here and they all have zero experience or any idea where a good storm hole might be. And this spot is fine up to anything but a hurricane.

[jpsgirl96]

Chris Parker a few hours ago.

Invest99: continues struggling to establish a single center of circulation.

Last evening's 10pm ASCAT showed the Apex of our TropicalWAVE 20N/67W. Wind field around and within 120mi of this point:
within 120mi N of 20N/67W: ENE<SE@30
within 120mi E of 20N/67W: SE<S-SSW@30, squalls to 40k
within 120mi S of 20N/67W: S-SSW@10-30, squalls to 40k
within 120mi W of 20N/67W: ENE@15-20
within 120mi SW of 20N/67W: variable under 10k

I expect wind field around Invest99 should be similar thru Fri26, so this may be useful for folks in S half of Bahamas.

At midday visible satellite imagery shows a well defined center 21.3N/72W. During the past 15 hours, the Apex of Invest99 moved 290 miles (just under 20k), on a track 290T.

All significant convection lies along S Coast of Hispanola, where a few weak low-level centers may lie.

NOAA assesses 40% chance Tropical LO develops thru Sat27 morning / 70% chance thru Tue30 morning.

Given Invest99's lack of organization the past few days we have been able to lower our Tropical LO formation assessment to about 20% in the next 24 hours each day...and we'll do that again today. We assess only about a:
10% chance Tropical LO develops thru tonight
20% chance Tropical LO develops thru Fri26 night
40%-50% chance Tropical LO develops thru Sun28
70% chance Tropical LO develops thru Tue30

MODELS:
TVCA family consensus models predict current track of 290T continues with slight decrease in speed...moving thru S Acklins late tonight / passing over-or-just-S of LongIsland/Georgetown (and probably N of most of Jumentos) Fri26 afternoon / S Andros Sat27 / FLKeys late Sun28 / turning NNW to 28N/86W Tue30 morning.

12zHWRF is in close agreement with TVCA: develops weak TropicalStorm Sat27 night-Sun28 approaching FLKeys, drifting NW along SW FL or SE GOMEX Sun28 night-Mon29, strengthening into Hurricane 28N/85W Tue30.

12zEURO operational is just coming out, and has backed way off...failing to develop Tropical LO until Invest99 is off FtMyers Mon29.

12zGFS: most Ensemble members fail to develop a Tropical LO - and the few that do, predict it develops off GA/Carolinas ThuSept1, and strengthens ENE or E of Hatteras Fri2 onward.
Operational GFS & 00zFIM9 concur, but Operational GFS is weak / FIM9 predicts strong LO.

12zCanadian Operational & Ensemble mean predict Tropical LO develops in FLKeys/SE GOMEX Sat27, and strengthens moving NW, with landfall LA/TX border Tue30. Also shows some (weak) regeneration of Fiona, moving W to Carolinas Mon29.

MY OPINION:
Given striking lack of organization and any convection coupled with the presumed center of circulation, and less aggressive model forecasts, I think the Apex of Invet99 continues on a track of 290T, but at a slower pace of 12-14k, which should get Invest99 to FLKeys Sun28 morning...with only a 40% chance Tropical LO has established by that time.

Invest99 will bring strong, gusty winds to much of Bahamas-SFL-FLKeys-FLStraits, but not likely in excess of minimal TropicalStorm strength.

We'll need to monitor Invest99 closely in E GOMEX, as it could be moving NNW in a supportive environment Sun28 night-Tue30.

Interests along SE US Coast & offshore waters of W Atlantic W&N of Bermuda should monitor Invest99 closely for possible formation/regeneration/strengthening ThuSept1 onward.


Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[David Hughes]

If you're really fearful, jus head up the Caloosahatchee River. Many places near the locks to tie up, with great protection. You could ride out a Cat 3 up there. My boat will be sitting in its slip in Cape Coral, along with 4000 other boats in the Ft Myers area. Get off the Gulf, and then relax....


Sent from my iPad using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[four winds]

Hey David, I'm in a basin which is likely no more than a few miles from you.

I wouldn't say that fear is a major factor. Just looking at what might be prudent options to consider under the developing circumstances. My boat is my home and sum total of my material possessions. I live to sail, sail to live.

In this anchorage if the storm winds blow 40+ I expect 8 of the 12 boats present will go walkabout. Which is all the unattended boats and a couple of the occupied boats. This happened here last year during a storm I weathered up in Gulport. Where there I watched well over half the anchored boats move, with a half dozen beached, and two sunk.

My intention is to watch the weather and anticipate the direction of wind flow and how it changes. Then position myself at an advantage against the onslaught of dragging boats. Which in my experience is the greater threat at anchor during storms.

I may even put out a second anchor for the first time ever.


To the forcast, it seems the computer models are catching up to the statements from the weather watchers. The panhandle is feasting on noodles now, and the sharpest turns are north of here. Happy to have stayed put, so far.

Learning much about the mechanics of storm development.

One good source of aggregate data I like is speghettimodels.com, Mike's Weather Page.

[a64pilot]

I hope it won't but bet if it's going to get ugly, it won't until near the Panhandle.
I think the further South and East you are, the better off you will be.
This won't be the ugly one though or I don't think it will be.
I too worry more about the derelicts and the just unattended stored boats more then the Storm itself.