Invest 99L-Florida boaters thoughts.

[dgz3]

looks like a great opportunity to sit tight and watch what happens. The weather talkers have had this one wrong from day one because the steering factors are weak and not well defined. Too many variables. And the Gulf can kick up very quickly and get very nasty. A whole family was killed when their sailboat sank recently not far from where you are right now because they left on the wrong day.
Much better to follow that system up to Pensacola than be chased up and trapped by it against the pan handle. All you'd need is for one little thing to go wrong and slow you down and then....
I'd spend my time looking for a better place to anchor if you don't like where you are.

[navysurfer]

Thanks for the Levi link outstanding, I am in Sarasota on a mooring ball, 37ft Tayana. Watching 99l very close, the temps in the Gulf are to hot not to have some worry.

Again thanks folks.

[four winds]

dgz3, your comment about any little thing going wrong is spot on.

Even with winds just aft of the beam and a reliable engine, I was thinking about the 'what if' of a delay, and then being only a day or so ahead of a storm that becomes a hurricane.

I really just wanted to go sailing, and have been considering going back to Alabama anyway, plus the winds are perfect with waves less than a meter (passage weather). Wanted to go up the East coast this year but need to work some now, with low funds presently.

Another option here, there is a development on the canal that didn't get built, but they built the dock first. A large empty lot with an empty dock, not too old. Might go over and take a look in person, not Google earth, and see what I think. It's close by and could be there at the last minute if the storm becomes a hurricane and decides to hook into central Florida.

[navysurfer]

Invest is getting a little better spin and is still worth watching, what worry's me is the water temps, rocket fuel perhaps for A storm.

Hope it fades away, it has fought to stay alive and is still a powerful low.

Cheers From Sunny Sarasota,

[barnakiel]

Aug 26 late evening (UTC) all models predict passage between Cuba and FL and then recurving and making a landfall on your soft underbelly.

Not much energy in it right now.

b.

[SV Bacchus]

Staying put was the right choice, now just find a suitable hidy-hole..

[tomfl]

Originally Posted by dgz3

SNIP

A whole family was killed when their sailboat sank recently not far from where you are right now because they left on the wrong day.


SNIP

Agree with most of what you posted but have to point out there have been lots of posts about this. The boat was far from being seaworthy and the skipper seemed to lack basic seamanship skills. While weather had some small part there was a cell phone call to the skipper's brother that the boat was in trouble and no real follow up. Seems to some extent, as in a lot of boats that sink, a lot of things went wrong. There were plenty of other boats out that day that had no problems.

[four winds]

Haven't checked this evening, been busy.

Had a windy one come through before dark. One of the usual suspects broke out and collected an experienced live-aboard on a cape dory. They ended on the far edge soft grounded.

The cape dory was shallower draft so he kedged himself back to a better spot. Read upwind of the other fellow. Now all the draggers are on the lee side of the usual strong winds.

Spent some time trying to get the outboard running on the offending boat with no luck. Finally pulled him off and rowed it back out to anchor. I guess both those boats are waiting on some wind to set their anchors.


On the original topic, I guess I'm fortunate I didn't head to St. Pete yesterday. Offshore today was nasty from here to there. So I would have been caught out in it from about Sarasota on the rest of the way. With storms and night falling upon arrival, assuming I made it that far.

Glad that storm at midday yesterday delayed my departure and gave an opportunity to rethink the idea.

[capngeo]

Four Winds..... FWIW there is ditch all the way from Ft Myers yo St Pete if thats where you want to go.... or as far as Ancolote Key. That said, I think 99L is just going to be a rain event. I'm not even going to add any lines to my boat.

[four winds]

Hey cap, .....wait, wait.... I thought that ditch was just for motorboats and MAFI's. :-)

I'm staying put. Strong storms are regular here, more of the same is bearable. No wave action is nice.

If things change for the worse I'm just two or three hours from some secluded spot on the river and new to me scenery.

[dgz3]

Soo...Four Winds? What did you ultimately do?
The storm has taken it's sweet time getting itself together and under way. As it happened, you could have sailed to Pensacola and back by now. But now it looks like it's finally going to show up. Somewhere.
In hindsight, are you satisfied you did the right thing? Or are you bobbing around out there somewhere in the middle of The Cone of Death with a broken rudder?

[a64pilot]

I'm heading out today to go the the boat, it's in Panama City, and that could be an issue.
I don't think it will be major either, but I just got through buying two new headsails.

I believe he did the smart thing, it could have gone a different way and or turned ugly, heck it still could, it ain't over yet.

[four winds]

dgz3, lol, I stayed put. For several weeks I have been considering a run back to the panhandle. Passed up several weather days of perfect wind in that time. This weather just made me once again think about it. Really needing some open water time.

It has been good for me to follow this storm for learning.

Interestingly, someone up thread mentioned a concern about a path into Georgia long before any models gave that indication.

I have found the tropicaltidbits videos to be a great source of information. In particular the info about what factors influence development and path. Talking about and showing these things in the video is very enlightening.

The storm has been crawling along, may be TS status sometime today. And will likely speed up soon. But landfall may be far from here and even predicted rainfall totals have dropped for my area.

But I got a clean hull and stocked up boat now, so that's good.

[four winds]

A64pilot, just curious, did you remove your new sails and stow them below?

Looks like landfall could be closer to you than me if that low pressure trough doesn't hurry on down some more.

[DDabs]

If anyone needs to seek harbor - we have dockage available at the Harborage in St. Petersburg.