Grasping at straws - Overdue Sailors

[sailcruiser]

I'm wondering if its an early 60s Alberg 35 which has a LOA of 34.75.

I pulled his one off the Internet. I attached one of earlier pics for comparison.
SC

[SaltyMonkey]

The windows look right

[cortezsailor]

Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey

More history:

Two Arrested In Smuggling Investigation - Sun Sentinel

I don't feel what happened in 1991 is in any way relevant, I also don't feel a DUI is in anyway relevant , neither do I feel that this past explains any possible motive in his disappearance. What is relevant is has any one seen this boat? These men? Has anyone heard anything out there that could help in locate them or assist in what happened. There is a family hear that would like help. Jeez I am embarrassed by SaltyMonkeys posts on this

[Coops]

In SM's defence he is only presenting already written articles. He is not making wild accusations or insults in the posts that I have seen.

Coops.

[holtfishbone]

Originally Posted by cortezsailor

I don't feel what happened in 1991 is in any way relevant, I also don't feel a DUI is in anyway relevant , neither do I feel that this past explains any possible motive in his disappearance. What is relevant is has any one seen this boat? These men? Has anyone heard anything out there that could help in locate them or assist in what happened. There is a family hear that would like help. Jeez I am embarrassed by SaltyMonkeys posts on this

I appreciate your defense. At the same time, no offense taken from salty monkey. I am just so thankful for the cruisers forum for allowing me to post this on here and for keeping an eye out for this boat.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by cortezsailor

I don't feel what happened in 1991 is in any way relevant, I also don't feel a DUI is in anyway relevant , neither do I feel that this past explains any possible motive in his disappearance. What is relevant is has any one seen this boat? These men? Has anyone heard anything out there that could help in locate them or assist in what happened. There is a family hear that would like help. Jeez I am embarrassed by SaltyMonkeys posts on this

I think most professional investigators would disagree with you. Any past behavior, good or bad, would be relevent in trying to figure out what happened to them.

[Bluewaters2812]

Originally Posted by Group9

I think most professional investigators would disagree with you. Any past behavior, good or bad, would be relevent in trying to figure out what happened to them.

I agree. I am a trained police Detective with many years experience in a senior position. I ran my own PI business for many years too. Quite correct, past behaviour is absolutely relevant but I think that Salty Monkey was also providing those links because there are mugshots involved that would give people here an idea of what they look like.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by cortezsailor

I don't feel what happened in 1991 is in any way relevant, I also don't feel a DUI is in anyway relevant , neither do I feel that this past explains any possible motive in his disappearance. What is relevant is has any one seen this boat? These men? Has anyone heard anything out there that could help in locate them or assist in what happened. There is a family hear that would like help. Jeez I am embarrassed by SaltyMonkeys posts on this

I agree with you utterly and totally.

And the blaggards who say they would not have changed don't understand a debt paid to society and those who do are to be encouraged by us until otherwise.

And in this thread to disrupt what could be life saving information due to DUI and 30 year old busts is disgusting in the extreme.

Similar to those that tried to disrupt a search off San Fransisco a few weeks ago by claiming it was a hoax. If people had died you would have been smiling on the other side of your facile face.


Mark

[hellosailor]

The recent DUI is certainly relevant, it tells us the guy may have a drinking problem and he might very well be drunk on watch, which makes an accidental MOB and drowning very much more likely.

I drink, I drive, but as Craig Ferguson, comedian, late night tv host, and admitted reformed alcoholic says, these are both jobs that need serious attention and it is simply not possible to do them both at the same time if you intend to do either of them well.

Same for the old drug conviction, it tells us that he at least had some contacts, or illusion of contacts, and if he needed money, it is all the more likely that he might consider "doing it again". So there might be a very simple reason he's intentionally out of contact.

Especially considering the OP's comment that he wouldn't leave his daughter (not her mother or aunt, but an impersonal reference?) alone that long, which might mean he wanted to be out of contact doing something "private". Like, drug running. Hey, it is a fine old tradition and ever popular.

The bottom line is that an anonymous "white boat" with no float plan and a large area of water is going to be hard to find. Given a short-handed crew who aren't young athletes...it would be hard to do more than sit and wait.

Going to marinas or calling around and asking "Have you seen a white boat with two old men on it?" is something like looking for a piece of hay in a haystack, isn't it? Doesn't hurt to ask, but it sounds like this can only be a waiting game, waiting for something to turn up somewhere.

I'd suggest to the OP that it might be most productive to first concentrate on the boat itself, try to find any information about exactly what it was. Maybe contact the previous owner of record (or ask the detective to do that) since SOMEONE knows what that boat is. If the PO has pictures of the boat, even better. The USCG can and will make enquiries for missing craft, but it helps if they have a picture to show, or some specifics beyond "a white boat".

[SaltyMonkey]

I won't respond to any of markj emotionalism, or his continued historical personal attacks and vendettas against me on CF. He doesn't know me and I certainly don't have the time for him.

To all: put away your emotions and your politics, and look to help this case rationally.

The criminal information provided is relevant. If you disagree with me (which you certainly can), please call the homicide detective on the case and ask her whether she thinks its relevant, or if it might spark someone's memory out here which leads to dormant clues that can help resolve this case.

I now stress something very strongly and very differently...

Relevance is one thing. But Probabilities are something else entirely.

And my opinions here only - take them or leave them:

What is the probability that they might have been on some great adventure with criminal intent at their age? IMHO, probably low since its so complex and so dangerous today. Still, someone I am sure is looking into this.

More important: what is the probability that they might have been reliving the same route as when they were young in 1991 w/ or w/o intent? IMHO very high. Wouldn't you want to relive a great adventure in your bucket list?

What is the probability they might have been hit by a ship following their old 1991 route with their lights off (in retrospective), or because they were careless in some other way (based on their history) given that a life preserver was found on the gulf side (at least according to Net reports)? IMHO high.

And now I also stress this: this is not the entire set of channels. This is only one epic of scenarios worth exploring and weighing.

For example: what about the other parts of their lives - information we do not have? e.g. what about their medical history?

Another example: What was the weather like during this timeframe? I attempted to download data from NOAA on the weather history to see if they might have run into something. I wasn't able to do this effectively in large batches and had difficulty reading and understanding it. Maybe one of you can?

I leave you with this - with the information we have been given and some of these constructs...

Based on these scenarios, do any conversations come to your memory that might help solve this case - something you might have heard in public?

Forget the boat colour etc...did you SEE anything unusual? Sailing vessels with their lights out? etc. When and where?

These are things which I believe someone might be able to answer w/ the sparks we have been given.

[Kettlewell]

What is the probability they might have been hit by a ship following their old 1991 route with their lights off (in retrospective), or because they were careless in some other way (based on their history) given that a life preserver was found on the gulf side (at least according to Net reports)? IMHO high.

IMHO there is a very low probability of getting run down. Even if nothing was done by either party collisions are very rare, and chances are good they would show up on radar even without lights. On the level of much more likely they could simply be somewhere without good communications, they don't have a working SSB or sat phone, and they don't want to call attention to themselves because they're from the USA and they just happen to be having a great time cruising the south coast of Cuba. Also much higher on the list of probabilities, but still remote, would be a sinking offshore, with little chance of anyone knowing if they didn't have an epirb.

Salty Monkey's idea of them retracing at least some of the route of their old adventures is an excellent place to start.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I agree with you utterly and totally.

And the blaggards who say they would not have changed dont understand a debt paid to society and those who do are to be encouraged by us until otherwise.

And in this thread to disrupt what could be life saving information due to DUI and 30 year old busts is disgusting in the extreme.

Mark

I do understand where you are coming from, but nonetheless I think the drug bust for smuggling is potentially relevant - likely not, but IMO not to be completely discounted (no fool like an old fool ) as even if not back in the game may well have hooked up with folks / been places / learnt stuff without fully appreciating the risks of simply being on the field of play......and not holding a bat ............Then again, IMO would be kinda dumb to over focus on the 20 year old drug angle to the exclusion of other and more likely (albeit more dull) possibilities around them simply going glug . or sitting in a bar somewhere .

The DUI / alcohol angle is I think more of a US thing - seems many over there have yet to shake off Puritanism and therefore have strange ideas about alcohol and those who have drunk it .

[skipmac]

Offered only in the spirit of information that might help the OP. There was a post that suggested the sailors were planning an extended fishing trip possibly Jamaica. Jamaica is not much of a fishing destination, the main species caught there are the infamous square grouper IE bales of pot.

If they were indeed headed that way the weather has been pretty rough of late so maybe they suffered mechanical breakdowns and are on the way back slowly. If they were loaded and strayed into Cuban waters they could well be locked up there. Has the OIC looked into that possibility? Not sure how how easily he/she could get information back from Cuba considering the status of US/Cuba relations at the moment.

[SaltyMonkey]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

The DUI / alcohol angle is I think more of a US thing - seems many over there have yet to shake off Puritanism and therefore have strange ideas about alcohol and those who have drunk it .

David: The DUI is a criminal offense not because it is puritanical, but because it exemplifies carelessness - both to oneself and more importantly, to innocent people. Penalties here in the states are tiered here based on injury and property damage. Penalties are not set up to be reactive, but proactive, so they prevent happening.

Florida, quite frankly, looking at their penaties, is pretty lax.

[Ocean Girl]

She does look like an alberg, Bristol 35? Length, draft, fixed ports, and eye brows match.
BRISTOL 35 sailboat specifications and details on sailboatdata.com



Have you posted in the destination page too? A lot of CFers subscribe to only one part of the forum.

Hope you find them safe and sound.
Erika