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**TrentePieds** · 22-04-2019, 16:29

FFT:

Had a look at your blog - very nice :-)!

May is nearly here, and you are about to take delivery, I gather. So just for fun I looked up the weather at Greifswald and Rønne as if you (or I) might depart Greifswald today. (I know you wouldn't, but just for fun :-) Nothing special there, certainly not "difficult": Wind out of Russia, fresh to frightening, seastate 5, the seas being mainly wave with moderate periodicity I would judge. I don't have accurate information. Swell is most likely also moderate.

No sense beating your head against a brick wall coming out of Greifswald, so that's clearly a motoring job until you are clear of Lotzenberg, Rügen's headland at Thiessow. That will be about a five hour run, pounding into it. Thence your rhumbline for Rønne is something like 40ºT. At the present moment the wind appears to be about 110º, 18 knots gusting to 25, meaning that you'd be going as high in the wind on the starboard tack as you reasonably can, given the prevailing sea conditions. Rather you than me :-)! 60NM hard on the wind with the seas basically on the beam, even in an air temperature as balmy as 10ºC, is not cruising. That's WORK. The sort of stuff I only do if they pay me for it. Handsomely :-)!

Best be down to a smallish working jib and a double reef in your main. Even then a boat of the Hanse's design will pound gawd-awfully. Best have a patch of dramamine already applied and another one handy. Seasickness is prompted as much by anxiety as by motion! Provided the wind holds at 110º or more, and provided Charlotte's constant rolling in the beam seas doesn't drive you bananas, the run from Lotzenberg to inside the mole at Rønne should take you no more than 12 hours. Might be as little as 10.

Anyway, you won't be doing it just now since Turku likely won't be ice free for another four weeks. If I were you, I'd make all my northing by sneaking up the Swedish shore staying west of Öland getting in a visit to Kalmar. Kalmar was not a Hanse city but was nevertheless a most significant city in Scowegian history. Passing north out of Kalmarsund nip over to Gotland and have a look at the ancient town of Visby which WAS a Hansestadt. From there, leave Gotska Sandön well to starboard, and when you are well clear of 'er, the entrance to the archipelago off Turku will bear about 40ºT, but the wind might be on your nose thanks to a local high pressure area just to the east or south east of Gotland.

Even when the weather breaks in early June, don't push too hard. Remember you are a cruising man, and your job as skipper and pater familias is to keep the weather for a friend. Don't challenge it. Don't buck it! In northern climes that is even more important than it is in the Caribbean and the Bahamas.

TP

Matt Johnson · 22-04-2019, 16:50

I want to see an archived GRIB/weatherfax database. Instead of just percentages and the monthly averages shown on pilot charts, I'd like to be able to see where past systems developed, speed they traveled, strength and duration. Maybe it already does exist, but I haven't been able to find any archive online.

Edit: Well, I just searched google for it again, and it appears there already is this data.

https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl/

Matt

Paul L · 22-04-2019, 19:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by funjohnson

I want to see an archived GRIB/weatherfax database. Instead of just percentages and the monthly averages shown on pilot charts, I'd like to be able to see where past systems developed, speed they traveled, strength and duration. Maybe it already does exist, but I haven't been able to find any archive online.

Edit: Well, I just searched google for it again, and it appears there already is this data.

https://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data/gfsanl/

Matt

Seriously, you want to look through a GRIB a day for the last 20 years to get a feel for the weather in an area vs the averages you can see of this data in the Cornell pilot charts? Seems like the climate would have changed again by the time you finished.

Matt Johnson · 22-04-2019, 20:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul L

Seriously, you want to look through a GRIB a day for the last 20 years to get a feel for the weather in an area vs the averages you can see of this data in the Cornell pilot charts? Seems like the climate would have changed again by the time you finished.

Our next passage is a run from the Azores to Ireland. We are going in May (hopefully). Why would I need to look at June through Aprils GRIBS for the past 20 years? I wouldn't, so I didn't waste time on that. Instead, I looked at the past 10 years of GRIB and surface analysis for just May in the North Atlantic.

The May pilot charts showed an average of force 4 from SE to N (gale 3%). I might be led to think that I'll be sailing along with 15 knts of wind the entire time (yes, the instability of wind direction tells me otherwise). But a quick glance at the past GRIBs show the pattern was calms followed by at least a force 5-6 once a week or less. It also shows the speed of the systems, where they move, and what they historically bring with them. It is just more information to help understand and plan.

Matt

Paul L · 22-04-2019, 21:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by funjohnson

Our next passage is a run from the Azores to Ireland. We are going in May (hopefully). Why would I need to look at June through Aprils GRIBS for the past 20 years? I wouldn't, so I didn't waste time on that. Instead, I looked at the past 10 years of GRIB and surface analysis for just May in the North Atlantic.

The May pilot charts showed an average of force 4 from SE to N (gale 3%). I might be led to think that I'll be sailing along with 15 knts of wind the entire time (yes, the instability of wind direction tells me otherwise). But a quick glance at the past GRIBs show the pattern was calms followed by at least a force 5-6 once a week or less. It also shows the speed of the systems, where they move, and what they historically bring with them. It is just more information to help understand and plan.

Matt

Did you use the pilot charts to decide on May? Looking at the GRIBs would give you some feel for patterns in previous years. That's why I start looking at daily Gribs maybe 6 weeks prior to a passage to get a feel for what the pattern is this year.

mglonnro · 23-04-2019, 07:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

FFT:

Had a look at your blog - very nice :-)!

Thank you!

Quote:

May is nearly here, and you are about to take delivery, I gather. So just for fun I looked up the weather at Greifswald and Rønne as if you (or I) might depart Greifswald today.

...

Oh, wow, you just sailed us from Greifswald to Rønne! That's fantastic and it was a real joy to read it!

I think going upwind with 18+ knots of wind and low temperature (current sea temperature is 6-7ºC outside Greifswald, 5ºC near Rønne) is, if not difficult per se, then at least a bit challenging. I don't particularly like sitting outside in the cold and dark (and sometimes wet) when wind chill brings the temperature down close to freezing.

It DOES feel nice afterwards, though, when enjoying a glass of red wine in a warm restaurant, once we've arrived (or finished the first leg).

Turku is ice free at the moment, and if a lot goes like planned, we are leaving Greifswald May 10th. "We" here isn't family this time, but some other friends.

The route is Greifswald - Rønne - Visby - Turku. And I hate motoring into the wind, btw

I think sailing makes it much more bearable.

Paul L · 23-04-2019, 08:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul L

Did you use the pilot charts to decide on May? Looking at the GRIBs would give you some feel for patterns in previous years. That's why I start looking at daily Gribs maybe 6 weeks prior to a passage to get a feel for what the pattern is this year.

Matt
There's a lot of historical satellite wind data here
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-acces...nded-sea-winds

**TrentePieds** · 23-04-2019, 09:49

Quote: "...I hate motoring into the wind, btw I think sailing makes it much more bearable."

Yes, agreed. But clearing Lotzenberg will take you five hours if you motor. If you beat your way there with a 20 knot wind on the nose, it may well take you 10 hours, I would think. Beyond that you have a minimum of 10 hours from Lotzenberg to Rønne, so count on at least 20 hours from pier to pier. Not a problem if you have a knowledgeable, competent crew, but you might like to time yourself to arrive at Rønne with a fair amount of daylight in hand since you will be dead tired and cold and not at your intellectual best :-)!

Rønne has a dead easy and well marked entrance, although it is narrow and there's a fair bit of traffic. If you will be transmitting AIS as you approach, that is one thing, but if you don't have that ability, then best to arrive in daylight and with a rested, alert man conning/helming.

On 10 May sunrise at Rønne will be at 0503 hours local and sunset at 2050 hours or so. Call it 16 hours of daylight including the twilights. But your anticipated Pier to Pier is 20 hours. Ergo, a night sail seems, to me at least, to be a good plan, but that is, of course, dependent on what equipment you have and on your crew's competence. Just be aware that there is a lot of traffic in those waters and that you will be crossing most of the commercial vessels' tracks. Be aware also that night sails in a brand new, untested vessel has its own risks.

I look forward to reading your blog about the trip :-)

Cheers

TP

edexter · 27-04-2019, 06:23

Greetings, Finland! Not exactly on point, but I enjoy pulling up Windy TV at https://www.windy.com/?2016-10-13-09,25.101,-80.464,7 and plotting a voyage to Europe and back, not that I would attempt such a thing in our boat. It only projects out a couple of weeks using the European Weather model, and less for a couple of other models like NAMS, but is still fun, and useful when planning weekend trips punting about the northern Chesapeake Bay in our little Rhodes 22. I leave it up on one screen of my PC a lot in season, as it is visually pretty, and useful in keeping track of tropical storms, which I need to do for work as well as safe sailing.
E. Dexter, Chief Engineer and Meteorological Officer
S/V Certainty
Frogmortar Creek, Maryland, USA

mglonnro · 19-05-2019, 10:24

Greetings from Turku. There is a new Hanse yacht in town!

We arrived on Wednesday but I've been sleeping for the last few days.

**TrentePieds** · 19-05-2019, 10:38

After doing Greifswald to Turku in a week, you deserve a LONG sleep :-0)!

Had a look at your blog this ayem. I imagine you'll be doing the Skerries this summer while learning the boat. What have you planned for the winter?

TP

mglonnro · 21-05-2019, 11:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

After doing Greifswald to Turku in a week, you deserve a LONG sleep :-0)!

Had a look at your blog this ayem. I imagine you'll be doing the Skerries this summer while learning the boat. What have you planned for the winter?

TP

We will just cast off and see what happens. We have children aged 4-10 and a dog, none of who has sailed before. Best case, after this summer, the boat is back to where we started, but we're not.

It's just summer cruising for us, for now, though. One or so month of summer vacation and then it's back to work. Before winter, s/y Charlotte safely tucked away into some warehouse.