Faith in Weather Forecast?

[boatman61]

I like the tongue in cheek Aussie forecasters approach... "This is the marine forecast for today.. please remember that things could be as much as 50% worse/stronger than we say.."
Something I take very much as verbatim.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by roland stockham

Yes thread has some good examples of how people get into problems when they don't fully understand the tech they use. A grib image IS NOT a weather forecast.
A weather forecast is when a meteorologist with knowledge of the forecast area prepares a prediction of the weather for a specific time period, place and level of detail. Up to 48hr they should be very accurate.
Relying on many Grib images for a coastal passage is about as much use as looking at the N pacific chart to plan a trip across San Francisco Bay.

I neither used gribs (Gribs for coastal are probably more accurate than gribs for the Aegean) and I did not get into problems. If you need a reliable weather forecast for every part of your journey within the Aegean to raise your anchor, then you are not going to get anywhere and perhaps should sail here.

Sometimes you just have to suck it an see.... and have a plan B.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Your first post appears to show a grib.... the raw data the weathermen ( sorry but cant spel mertroiwatsitogist ) work with...

That is a grib... not a weather forecast.... rely on that and you will come unstuck.... esp inshore

Then please show me what you use here in the Med which is so much superior?

I use Buoyweather which is a forecast that also predicted 2-5 knots in that region on the same day. I combine the forecast with pocketgribs and Weather4Dpro for a visual immage much like PredictWind, Weather4DPro has a barometer forecast overlay showing the fronts as does pocketgribs.

Sorry, I'm not able to watch the TV weatherman, especially when enroute, so I need to make the best of the tools I have at hand, and prepare in advance for what might come up that's unexpected.

Here's what a forecast looks like on Buoyweather, we subscribe to the service for $79 per year which gives us access to a ten day forecast. Which IS called a forecast. I take multiple forecasts along the route I intend to take and combine them with grib files and weather animations which include barometer data showing the fronts to make up my own mind..... rather than relying on some guy in a weather bunker I don't know.

[Sulaire]

Ken,

El pingo is correct when he says use the local forecasts, i agree they can be difficult in all the various languages, but i downloaded bing app, which as a side feature automatically translates the web page into any language you choose.

The aegean is a world to itself, anything can happen at any time when it is unsettled, we learned that when it gets unsettled, just stay put! Don,t ask how we learned that, hoppy,s post earlier about covers it!

C

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Sulaire

Ken,

El pingo is correct when he says use the local forecasts, i agree they can be difficult in all the various languages, but i downloaded bing app, which as a side feature automatically translates the web page into any language you choose.

The aegean is a world to itself, anything can happen at any time when it is unsettled, we learned that when it gets unsettled, just stay put! Don,t ask how we learned that, hoppy,s post earlier about covers it!

C

What about the Buoyweather forecast I've been using? How would one otherwise go about getting a forecast for an entire 500 mile loop aaround Italy without using a forecasting app like Buoyweather. The VHF Coastguard forecast around Italy is useless.


"El pingo is correct when he says use the local forecasts."

Charlie,

We don't have the luxury of always being able to stay put until things look perfect, and when we're on the move, how am I supposed to get a local forecast if I don't use any of the tools I already use?

If I see a forecast calling for 15-20 knots coming from the side or behind.... we go and deal with whatever comes our way. But when it looks like 2.2 knots.... And we get 38 knots??

That's the weather guy's screw up.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Then please show me what you use here in the Med which is so much superior? I use Buoyweather which is a forecast that also predicted 2-5 knots in that region on the same day. I combine the forecast with pocketgribs and Weather4Dpro for a visual immage much like PredictWind, Weather4DPro has a barometer forecast overlay showing the fronts as does pocketgribs.

Sorry, I'm not able to watch the TV weatherman, especially when enroute, so I need to make the best of the tools I have at hand, and prepare in advance for what might come up that's unexpected.

Here's what a forecast looks like on Buoyweather, we subscribe to the service for $79 per year which gives us access to a ten day forecast. Which IS called a forecast. I take multiple forecasts along the route I intend to take and combine them with grib files and weather animations which include barometer data showing the fronts to make up my own mind, rather than relying on some guy in a weather bunker I don't know.

Sorry Ken, but Buoyweather is giving me a really crap forecast for my current position

morning (now) .. Winds: NNW 13 to 17 knots.

Right now and for the whole morning, it's been blowing 23 to 30 with 40 the highest gust. At least the Greek meteo.gr site I use is predicting F6 for me here which atm is accurate.

I'm not so confident in the accuracy of those global weather sites as they don't seem to understand local conditions.

I suggest that you bin Buoyweather for the Aegean

[Sulaire]

To be honest, i tried bouyweather and did not rate it, the reports all seem generic and computer generated.

What i do is fist take a quick look at the synoptic chart for fronts, lows etc, in the med any type of disturbance in the synoptics is not good news. then the local forecast from the national meteo center, lastly predictwind ( the paid version as it goes down to 1km rsolution), also has synpotics , cloud and rain forecast maps.

A wise old greek sailer in crete told me ; in the Aegean, it it is 60/40 favour of going, stay put, enjoy another raki. The sea will still be there tomorrow.

Basically in the med i think if it at all showing unsettled weather, be on guard for anything!

C

[Kenomac]

I guess, that is why we bought a boat that was "built to double as a submarine when necessary," as advised to do so by my friend Ken.

I always add 10 knots or so for a worst case senario self-forecast.

I guess that's why you did the same by purchasing a Hans Christian. ;-)

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Sulaire

To be honest, i tried bouyweather and did not rate it, the reports all seem generic and computer generated.

What i do is fist take a quick look at the synoptic chart for fronts, lows etc, in the med any type of disturbance in the synoptics is not good news. then the local forecast from the national meteo center, lastly predictwind ( the paid version as it goes down to 1km rsolution), also has synpotics , cloud and rain forecast maps.

A wise old greek sailer in crete told me ; in the Aegean, it it is 60/40 favour of going, stay put, enjoy another raki. The sea will still be there tomorrow.

Basically in the med i think if it at all showing unsettled weather, be on guard for anything!

C

Question: How much moving around do you do? I mean like 100-200 mile passages. I purchased Buoyweather based on a good recommendation last season and again this season by Marcel, who's also based here in the Agean as a full time liveaboard. (I realize you know him) He also recommended Weather4DPro as HIS go-to app.

[Sulaire]

Don,t forget to add in that the wind WILL change 180 degrees too!

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Sulaire

Don,t forget to add in that the wind WILL change 180 degrees too!

In other words, my guess is as good if not better than the weatherman's.

I should buy an official meteorologist's dartboard.

[Sulaire]

In the Aegean, its mainly short hops max 50 miles, but this last few weeks we have done a few 200-300 milers, all went well, as we SAT AND WAITED! until the weather was right, as we have all the time in the world😀sure we got more wind than we thought at times, but hey thats sailing, its not stamp collecting! **** happens!

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Then please show me what you use here in the Med which is so much superior?

I use Buoyweather which is a forecast that also predicted 2-5 knots in that region on the same day. I combine the forecast with pocketgribs and Weather4Dpro for a visual immage much like PredictWind, Weather4DPro has a barometer forecast overlay showing the fronts as does pocketgribs.

Sorry, I'm not able to watch the TV weatherman, especially when enroute, so I need to make the best of the tools I have at hand, and prepare in advance for what might come up that's unexpected.

Here's what a forecast looks like on Buoyweather, we subscribe to the service for $79 per year which gives us access to a ten day forecast. Which IS called a forecast. I take multiple forecasts along the route I intend to take and combine them with grib files and weather animations which include barometer data showing the fronts to make up my own mind..... rather than relying on some guy in a weather bunker I don't know.

49 years since I was last in the Med but I do know it is a small and nasty bit of sea where gribs would be less than useless ... and everything I have seen suggests that Buoyweather is just repackaged grib stuff.

TV weatherman? I'm 100% 'off the grid' for a few months at a time but can get voice wx from the Armada de Chile twice a day, gribs whenever , NOAA sat pix a few times a day.... still comes down to 'looking out the window' and common savvy.

Biggest danger in my world is rachas... you just have to know what rachas wx looks like ... makes 50 knots up your bum look like a walk in the park ...

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Sulaire

The aegean is a world to itself, anything can happen at any time when it is unsettled, we learned that when it gets unsettled, just stay put! Don,t ask how we learned that, hoppy,s post earlier about covers it!

Actually the Aegean has been settled for the past week, it's just that it's definition of settled is a strong consistent wind from the Meltemi

I good sign of how settled it is, is the black blob that is my track on the GPS at anchor. The swing range is perhaps a 30 degree arc and no track creeping forward if the wind strength dies.

If you want to go north then you are best to wait for the Meltemi to take a break. If you are heading East, West or South, depending on how the islands have been bending the wind, you can still go if you don't mind the heavy stuff. Of course the fun happens when you get too close to the islands.


What made me turn back was the prospect of 5 nm north between 2 islands. If it was a F7 where I decided to bail rather than an F9, then I would have gone to the middle between the 2 islands (3nm between them) to see if it was perhaps only a F6. It was worth a shot.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

In other words, my guess is as good if not better than the weatherman's.

I should buy an official meteorologist's dartboard.

You're not far wrong.....

In Sweden, the weatherman clearly doesn't have an office with a window.



A few years ago when I moved from Samos (near Turkey) to the Ionian, through the Aegean I gave up on checking forecasts. It was windy as f... at anchor and we were prepared for sailing in windy as f... conditions, we got windy as f... conditions. The only variable was when we left, we were not sure which island we could point to.