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Old 29-08-2015, 00:23   #61
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

Been watching the tracking of the Storm. A number of people killed on the islands, Hitting mountainous regions soon which should help to dissipate the power.
Current models show the same track as Charley up the left side of Florida, but as of yet, in a moderated manner. One can only hope that the storm does not go over water and repower to hurricane status.

Brought back a lot of memories.
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Old 29-08-2015, 00:38   #62
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

As a side note, Most of Katrinas damage was caused by flooding and not the storm per se. Up to 16 foot level when the levees broke.

This is not to take away the power of the storm or the results of its presence, more to put in perspective that the storm itself did not cause the direct problems experienced. Rather it was the secondary result of the storm on the inadequate water barriers that broke.

**************************

In Florida, the water table is only a few inches. In times of high water or storm surges, Ive seen myself and friends sat on tables in a Punta Gorda pub enjoying a beer with a foot or more of water flooding through the place. Any disruption to the sea soon shows across the country. It would not take too much for Florida to be underwater if the seas rose even a little bit.
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Old 29-08-2015, 08:13   #63
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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My belief is that a certain segment of this Country now believe it's the Government's job to take care of them, they shouldn't have to do anything but wait for the aid, where most non urban types get up, pick up and get to work, whether it's New England and storms, the Mid West and floods, or the Deep South and Tornadoes / Hurricanes.

Must be nice to view the world in such a basic black + white way. By ignoring the nuance, the complex socioeconomic forces that put people where they are (geographically, intellectually, financially, socially), it's much easier to walk around with a sense of entitlement, superiority even, and a feeling that "you earned it, and they didn't". The reality is luck played a much bigger part in your success than you allow yourself to believe.

#humility
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Old 29-08-2015, 09:28   #64
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

Just to hop back on the Erika topic. Latest models seem to indicate the storm will be packing 45mph winds when it makes landfall in the Florida so maybe take a second and thank Dominica for absorbing the blow.
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Old 29-08-2015, 09:56   #65
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

The NOAA website says she dissipated.. Sustained winds are down to 30MPH. Lets hope she is dead.
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Old 29-08-2015, 10:26   #66
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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Originally Posted by chris95040 View Post
Must be nice to view the world in such a basic black + white way. By ignoring the nuance, the complex socioeconomic forces that put people where they are (geographically, intellectually, financially, socially), it's much easier to walk around with a sense of entitlement, superiority even, and a feeling that "you earned it, and they didn't". The reality is luck played a much bigger part in your success than you allow yourself to believe.



#humility

You missed the point entirely, current predictions have Erika hitting very close to where I keep my boat. History has shown that once they get into the Gulf, they can strengthen sometimes quite a bit.
I have as I see it two options,
Go down and prepare for it, strip off the windage and either double up lines, install chafe gear et., or maybe try finding a spot in the mangroves to ride it out, or
Do nothing and hope the predictions are wrong, they usually are

Earthquakes and many other natural disasters do in fact "ambush" still, all you can do I guess if you live in an area possibly affected by them is either live in a perpetual state of readiness or move.
But in this day and age, Hurricanes don't "ambush" anymore. If your in an area in the Untied States and are hit by a Hurricane, you chose to stay there.
You make your own luck, once reaching a certain age, you really do. Assuming a basic mental and physical fitness level, there are many ways in this Country of being trained to make a living or attending school. Physically handicapped and mentally challenged and or ill are of course a separate category. Maybe Society should provide for them.
I'm a Jim Bob type of redneck, born in the Deep South. I packed up and moved myself first to the oil patch in Oklahoma seeking decent employment and later sent for my later to become wife. People do that all the time, living in tents and their cars until they can afford something better.

It is as some have pointed out un-natural to live near a sea shore and live under sea level, Make me King for a day and I'm not so sure I would have spent untold sums of money rebuilding New Orleans.
Maybe the countless towns that were flooded by the Mississippi and were subsequently abandoned had the right idea?



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Old 29-08-2015, 10:44   #67
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

A64pilot,

I agree with you 100%.

'Been trying to say basically the same thing.... But it seems that there's fewer stones being hurled in your direction.

Ken
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Old 29-08-2015, 10:53   #68
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

The fundamental problem with not rebuilding New Orleans, ignore its culture and vibrancy, ignore the history and art. Where do you put the port? The entire port complex stretches from the mouth of the Mississippi at South West pass north over 100 miles past Baton Rouge. Without New Orleans all the food, grain, coal, oil, natural gas, steel, ect. That either go to or come from the entire Mississippi drainage basin would have to be re-routed.

When you add up the entire port complex of the lower Mississippi River t comes out to around 450,000,000 metric tons of goods a year that pass though the port. Excluding oil and gas. That's 1.5 tons of goods for every person in the U.S.

After Katrina keep in mind, one of the first critical pieces of infrastructure gotten back on line was the port system. The port was up and running before my house was dewatered. And no one here (ok very few people) had an issue with it. Because keeping that port running is the foundational industry here. Without the port New Orleans doesn't exist.
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Old 29-08-2015, 10:57   #69
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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Originally Posted by chris95040 View Post
Must be nice to view the world in such a basic black + white way. By ignoring the nuance, the complex socioeconomic forces that put people where they are (geographically, intellectually, financially, socially), it's much easier to walk around with a sense of entitlement, superiority even, and a feeling that "you earned it, and they didn't". The reality is luck played a much bigger part in your success than you allow yourself to believe.

#humility
So you're saying that the people who decide to live 15ft below sea level on the coast in hurricane alley, then decide to stay where they are as a well-forecast storm approaches.... despite the widespread warnings to get out of town... You're saying that they were just less lucky than the rest of us who choose to live many miles inland?

What a warped, bass-ackwads way to look at things. Nothing lucky about choosing to live inland and away from the water.... whether it be a river, ocean or lake. I'd much prefer a year round ocean view (not 15 ft below sea level), but all I can afford is 6 months per year on my boat.
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Old 29-08-2015, 11:36   #70
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

hay a64, if you go prep it, nothing will happen. if you dont, as this is allegedly expected to be a ts when florida screams wolf, then no problem. all will be fine. water goes up, blow job, water drops, blow job, no problema. sails wont rip, if you have tied them down before you left em...beats the crap outta a c5 cane experience. hope you anticipated

hopefully you prepared for leaving your boat anticipating some wind and swell. chafe gear before leaving it alone is a goood idea, as you aint there to oversee it.....


now for the fun stuff, as a worstcoaster, before i became a californicator, i lived all over usa, and travelled some abroad.
i drove a vw variant S notchback thru a blizzard with white out conditions on the taconic state parkway . oops was last car thru yorktown heights before the car that damnnear clipped me caused a pile up of 200 cars..i heard bam bam bam bam bam bam diminish as i drove away shaking in my seat..no i kept it clean, somehow.. tightened up good, tho..man that was within 2 inches of me , and he could not stop at the flashing red light he had, we had flashing yellow. the ice under our tires was already over 2 inches thick,and if you even tried to vary speed you lost control of the car. thank gods for rear engine and weighted car..no snow tires nor chains. yes it was exciting drive.
funny how it ended..safe n sound, but not uneventful.
did i mention the tornadoes chasing me the hellouta missouri(pronounced misery)??? wholly sheets.. good thing i donot wear red shoes, mon.whew.
i have lived under donna and carla..mebbe even a couple of each , and here on this west coast, there have been more than i can easily count named storms either over head, as ts have done many times, or close off coast 'canes, here on southwest coast, where they are born and grow. deadly, but awesomely beautiful.
i have lived thru california formerly pnw storms with winds to over 65 kph, and moving cyclonically, as pnw storms do (just watch em, you willsee--pnw storms are the continuously rotating remnants of nw pac cyclones kept in motion by the anticyclone centered in the north pacific. i have sailed thru florida tboomers. whoooot!!!
i prefer warm water misadventures to the cold ones. you can keep the pnw nastinesses, you can keep the blizzards, i would rather survive these earthquakes and attempts on mylife made by named storms. at least they are warmer.
but, please , keep the lightning, and., btw, fla is only worlds most lightning strikes in the mind of florida..is only in the middle range of true world statistics. they also just seem like more. except off appalachiacola. it does seem like more , tho...true dat


btw--nawleenz would be totally awesome with new better pumps and a coupla leveees..... loved it there. the saints actually won stoopitbole when i arrived to sail out of slidell for near year...
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Old 29-08-2015, 11:38   #71
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

I guess that Erika is losing its power. Shame it was too late for some.

Thats another thread that seems to have ended. I will leave you gentle people to discuss matters pertaining to personality and putting the world to rights.

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Old 29-08-2015, 11:59   #72
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Erika is a naughty girl.

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I guess that Erika is losing its power. Shame it was too late for some.



Thats another thread that seems to have ended. I will leave you gentle people to discuss matters pertaining to personality and putting the world to rights.




I hope your right about it losing it's power, but being the type to over prepare I'm gonna keep a watch out anyway.
I was a kid them, but if I remember right Camille was one that was a small storm, but greatly intensified.

Zee, boats pretty well put away, I have chain around the pilings with dual 3/4" lines tied in, but Dinghy is in it's davits, dodger and bimini's canvas is up, head sails still on and Solar panels up.
If this thing intensifies, be prudent to remove that windage.

Re: Hurricane evacuation, I lived in Richmond Hill near Savannah for a few years, and I hurri-evaced twice, and I think Savannah hasn't been hit in a century and a half?

All I'm saying is if you chose to have a boat, especially if it's your home, or you live in an area prone to natural disasters, whatever they may be from Mud slides to earthquaes, fires, whatever, prepare for that disaster, or move.
I chose to live near the coast, and soon on the boat, I plan as much as possible to prepare for it. One plan I hope to execute when we are cruising, is to not be in the area during Hurricane season.
Assuming the boat survives, a cruising boat is among the best thing to have after a natural disaster for what I can tell, as most are pretty self sufficient for a significant time.



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Old 29-08-2015, 13:41   #73
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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I hope your right about it losing it's power, but being the type to over prepare I'm gonna keep a watch out anyway.
Smart man! Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclones | Weather Underground

It looks likely that 99L with become Fred. Erika sure isn't giving up easily either. Good luck a64.

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Old 29-08-2015, 15:53   #74
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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I'm a Jim Bob type of redneck, born in the Deep South. I packed up and moved myself first to the oil patch in Oklahoma seeking decent employment and later sent for my later to become wife. People do that all the time, living in tents and their cars until they can afford something better.
Wow! Little House On The Prairie. You just told me your age.
In my "little town", I had a friend one year ahead of me in high school. We called him Jim Bob. They called me "John Boy". No joke.

That aside, necessity truly is the mother of invention, and the mother of preparedness. Nor'Easters in Maine are much the same as hurricanes blasting the southern rim, in that a certain number of people are going to die from them each year. In the great Northeast, everyone knows -- or, at least, SHOULD know -- that blizzards in January (a normal occurrence) often go hand-in-hand with power outages that can last for many days. The physically handicapped, the elderly, and the mentally impaired account for many of the blizzard-related deaths, but there's also the rare case of a John Boy / Jim Bob who gets caught out on the highway thinking he could beat the storm, even though he / she had a full tank of gas, studded tires with chains, and a Thermos of coffee to get home from the "third-shift" job at the factory. From an early age, northerners learn how to prepare for blizzards; e.g., alternative heat sources, food, water, radios, comforters, candles/flashlights, and a snow shovel. Eighteen years living in Maine, and nobody ever died in my home town from a blizzard, and we got some whoppers!

With civil defense at the ready, and with such advanced notice, hurricanes fall into a different category. Human deaths should always be mourned, but those that are physically able should always prepare to leave home in the path of a hurricane. I can only assume that many of those that died in the wake of Katrina were either too stupid, thrill-seekers, or too lazy/drunk/stoned to hitch a ride up the highway to safer zones.

Quote:
It is as some have pointed out un-natural to live near a sea shore and live under sea level,...
That is actually incorrect. Worldwide, and for the history of mankind, people have lived at the seashore for sustenance. But, unless a submariner, "below sea level" is somewhat odd.
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Old 29-08-2015, 15:58   #75
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Re: Erika is a naughty girl.

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Must be nice to view the world in such a basic black + white way. By ignoring the nuance, the complex socioeconomic forces that put people where they are (geographically, intellectually, financially, socially), it's much easier to walk around with a sense of entitlement, superiority even, and a feeling that "you earned it, and they didn't". The reality is luck played a much bigger part in your success than you allow yourself to believe.

#humility
Not to start a fire here, yet too often, and incorrectly, people love to point to the word "luck".

#preparedness/planning/critical thinking
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