Good to hear from you on this. I am wondering what "wind models" you are looking at. I use "Wetsand" which is essentially a surfing site, but it replicates US Navy
I absolutely agree that we will never know the real threats until it is probably too late to react - just as folks now stranded in Sentai are saying on NHK World (Japan, English
language Cable TV).
The bottom line for me is that if we look at the wind models for 1-7 days out, we can see a that once the wind turns south, it seems to form a split into a kind of "fork" with two distinct wind directions evolving. One heads almost due west, at approximately 20 degrees latitude, toward Taiwan
and mainland China
. The other heads SW toward the Phillipines, then over the top of us toward Vietnam
What I found interesting is that today, Sunday at noon GMT + 8 (HK time) China
TV (People's Republic) said they were monitoring the radiation leaked so far and figured that the winds would curl as noted above and that they would hit the PRC in approximately 60 hours. Of course, the radiation released so far has been rather minimal and the PRC say (hopefully with some degree of truth) that the radiation expected will have a "minimal" impact on China.
I figure that the PI might even have more time than that, since the SW "fork" seems to occur further at sea, perhaps taking at least another 12 hours to reach us here in the PI.
The problem is that we are now hearing is that 3 METERS OF FUEL
RODS have been exposed at the Fukushima plant, which exploded its outer building on Saturday, and that all six reactors at the plant have now experienced cooling
failures. There has been a partial meltdown of the #1 reactor, and, given the level of damage noted above, the heat in the reactor may be sufficient enough to completely melt down the rest of the reactor fuel
causing a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl and threatening all of east and southeast Asia
Frankly, if reactor #1 does blow, I will not wait around for the third act of this on going tragedy. I'lll be buying
a ticket to Bali (preliminary reservations already made), and will take a vacation
south of the equator where the surfing season is about to get under way and where, with luck, I may be able to purchase
a boat that I can ride home in exactly the opposite direction of my originally intended route
- that is, once the SW monsoon finally kicks and hopefully blows all that nasty stuff back to where it originated. The whole scenario would seem comical, if there were not real lives at stake.
Let's hope (for all concerned) that it doesn't come to that. :0