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Old 23-11-2015, 07:25   #91
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Re: ARC 2015

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Originally Posted by Polux View Post
There is a difference this time regarding the more traditional route. A big hole without almost no wind for several days when most of the boat arrive there, if they chose that route.

That is why on this year's ARC you have not the typical two way course division between the ones that go North (and want to go faster) and the ones that follow the traditional route . This year you have plenty of course options and not only two.

Besides, contrary to other years the Northern is not a big difference in wind strength. There is good wind all over the place, except on that hole. Avoiding it is the main concern to all and contrary to other years there is also "racers" that have chosen not to go North to have the fastest passage.

It seems this year things and course options are just a bit more complicated
I cannot see the hole. Where is it?

I do not have any clients in this pack so I did not follow their reasoning other than seeing the clear benefit of making an early W gain to later drop S as the wind is forecast to veer (much at Canaries, somewhat less further on).

What is creating the wind hole?

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Old 23-11-2015, 08:34   #92
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Re: ARC 2015

A high center pressure pretty much stationary for some days.

Look here between 28/11 and 2 /12 (near Cabo Verde, to the NO):
https://www.windyty.com/?2015-11-28-21,20.084,-19.327,4
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Old 23-11-2015, 10:37   #93
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Re: ARC 2015

So what about cats? There are two with a very good performance even if both are being clearly beaten by a performance cruiser, a Knierim 49:




By far the more interesting one is the Neel 45. I know, it is a trimaran but not with the type of interior modern performance trimarans have. The interior is a kind of condo cat interior with much more interior space than a modern trimaran but less than a condo cat, that makes a better use of the hulls.

The Neel 45 is sailing at the same pace of an Outremer 51, that is a bigger boat with a nicer interior that costs about the double!!! and that makes all the difference, at least for me, in what regards giving, till know, the prize of better performance multi-hull to the Nell 45.

The Neel 45 is a boat that makes me mad: an innovative boat that from some angles look nice, from others monstrous but that is a shadow of what it could have been if properly designed.

I don't mean the hull and general concept that look very well to me but regarding the layout concept and finish: What an amateurish mess! The bow of the boat is used for a small cabin but the main hull at the maximum beam is only used for storage and the saloon is small and odd shaped, having the boat two big cabins with a head each. They seem not to have understood that the main space of a sailboat is the saloon and that a "condo" trimaran has to have a nice one. Sorry about the rant but I hate to see a great idea wasted.

And by the way, why the well does not have the boat a big central board to improve upwind performance?
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Old 23-11-2015, 10:42   #94
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Re: ARC 2015

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Originally Posted by Polux View Post
Regarding most cats choosing the ARC+ instead of the ARC it seems that there is also another difference: It seems that the best skippers among cats chose the ARC.

On the ARC+ we have two cats very well sailed, another three reasonably well sailed and many cats poorly sailed to the point of 5 of them being among smaller or considerably slower monohulls.

On the ARC there are many cats and trimarans very well sailed and comparatively less poorly sailed.
I have to take issue with your "poorly sailed" comments. IMHO poorly sailed on a rally like the ARC means that you are pushing your boat beyond your comfort level for the sake of your ego. I think you captured the essence of the ARC in your earlier video clip from distantshores



Look again at the video. The big cat gains during the day, because they are flying a large downwind sail (and no main). They drop back at night, because they drop that unreefable sail and go with a small jib (and probably no main). That is not 'poor' sailing, that is good seamanship, as it was gusting up to 40 knots in the squalls, and could have gone higher at night with no warning.

Look again at the video. The cat is being hand steered by someone completely exposed to the elements, while the watch on the mono is tucked in under the dodger and lets the autopilot steer. Perhaps the helmsman on the cat is just enjoying the hand steering, but perhaps with that big sail up he doesn't trust the autopilot near the other boat--I note that the cat starts to round up on one wave at about :23 seconds.

The other interesting observation is the rolling on the two types of boats. The mono is doing a slow roll, while the cat follows the waves more, with perhaps sharper movements.
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Old 23-11-2015, 11:23   #95
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Re: ARC 2015

Quote:
Originally Posted by Polux View Post
A high center pressure pretty much stationary for some days.

Look here between 28/11 and 2 /12 (near Cabo Verde, to the NO):
https://www.windyty.com/?2015-11-28-21,20.084,-19.327,4
OK. I understand. Yet I still cannot see it.

1) If I am reading the thing right, there is some probability of a LOW disturbance in the area (not a high). "20,-19; look at the bend in the isobars. Wind arrows at windyty and in my grib file seem to agree.

2) As they calculate it 24,25,26,27,28,29,30 = 5 to 7 days ahead. 0.75 probability exponentially removed over say 6 days. Less than 20%. Still something, sure.

3) The area discussed is not on the (s.c. Southerly route) which passes some 350 Nm NW from the CV then turns W. This route gets less and less sailed as boats get bigger every year. Possibly one of the reasons for the ARC+.

Except that I might be looking at the wrong picture or doing some silly mistake due to what I call expert complacency (by which I understand people with more experience in a field may overlook details spotted by less experienced, but more thorough, guns).

BTW VERY choppy here (LP) and I will not be surprised if some smaller craft will not stand the pressure from the rolling seas and turn S/SW sooner to get a somewhat more comfortable ride.

Cheers,
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Old 23-11-2015, 11:34   #96
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Re: ARC 2015

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Originally Posted by donradcliffe View Post
I have to take issue with your "poorly sailed" comments. IMHO poorly sailed on a rally like the ARC means that you are pushing your boat beyond your comfort level for the sake of your ego.
I don't understand you. Poorly sailed means that the skipper and crew are not very good and that similar boats, better sailed are way ahead. That happens for instance with a Lagoon 39, a Fountain Pajot 47 and a Lagoon 560 that are on the tail of the ARC, with similar boats, better sailed way ahead.

That has nothing to do with ego but certainly with comfort level: a good sailor will have a much higher comfort level than a poor sailor, he knows better how to exploit the boat and what is dangerous and not. A poor sailor just does not know what is dangerous or not and so opt for a very careful approach.

Do you thing that the similar cats that are near the head of the ARC are being sailed in a dangerous way? I don't think so.

Quote:
Originally Posted by donradcliffe View Post
I think you captured the essence of the ARC in your earlier video clip from distantshores



Look again at the video. The big cat gains during the day, because they are flying a large downwind sail (and no main). They drop back at night, because they drop that unreefable sail and go with a small jib (and probably no main). That is not 'poor' sailing, that is good seamanship, as it was gusting up to 40 knots in the squalls, and could have gone higher at night with no warning.

Look again at the video. The cat is being hand steered by someone completely exposed to the elements, while the watch on the mono is tucked in under the dodger and lets the autopilot steer. Perhaps the helmsman on the cat is just enjoying the hand steering, but perhaps with that big sail up he doesn't trust the autopilot near the other boat--I note that the cat starts to round up on one wave at about :23 seconds.

The other interesting observation is the rolling on the two types of boats. The mono is doing a slow roll, while the cat follows the waves more, with perhaps sharper movements.
Yes I agree with your comments, two boats with about the same size being sailed in different ways, the monohull under autopilot and far away from the limits, the cat in a more edgy way needing a good hand at the steering wheel.

Regarding the need on a cat to take more sail at night it is just because the safety margins on a monohull are bigger: If a monohull is caught by a huge gust, it will just lay flat on the side and will recover easily while a cat can capsize, even if what regards a boat as heavy as the Lagoon 500 I see it as very improbable.

More the case with a light performance catamaran, even if big and that is probably why the performance of condo cats on the ARC are not very far in performance from the condo cats: Condo cats have a bigger safety margin and so they can be pushed harder without being afraid of a capsize, specially at night.

By the way that Southerly 49 (Distant Shores ) is making the ARC+ with a good sailing performance: Only three cats are slightly ahead and from them only one is smaller, a performance Catana 472. All the others, including three considerably bigger, are behind.
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Old 23-11-2015, 11:57   #97
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Re: ARC 2015

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Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
OK. I understand. Yet I still cannot see it.

1) If I am reading the thing right, there is some probability of a LOW disturbance in the area (not a high). "20,-19; look at the bend in the isobars. Wind arrows at windyty and in my grib file seem to agree.

2) As they calculate it 24,25,26,27,28,29,30 = 5 to 7 days ahead. 0.75 probability exponentially removed over say 6 days. Less than 20%. Still something, sure.

3) The area discussed is not on the (s.c. Southerly route) which passes some 350 Nm NW from the CV then turns W. This route gets less and less sailed as boats get bigger every year. Possibly one of the reasons for the ARC+.

Except that I might be looking at the wrong picture or doing some silly mistake due to what I call expert complacency (by which I understand people with more experience in a field may overlook details spotted by less experienced, but more thorough, guns).

BTW VERY choppy here (LP) and I will not be surprised if some smaller craft will not stand the pressure from the rolling seas and turn S/SW sooner to get a somewhat more comfortable ride.

Cheers,
b.
The big area with low winds is this one:
Many are sailing north of it. The data has already changed. Now it will be for less days, between 27 and 30.
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Old 23-11-2015, 14:00   #98
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Re: ARC 2015

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The big area with low winds is this one:
Many are sailing north of it. The data has already changed. Now it will be for less days, between 27 and 30.
I see. If they are lucky, this may be one of the shortest ARCs! If they are not lucky, then they will run out of puff further Westwards - very long data shows a typical pattern there later and the further N one is the more affected the passage. Down S it is quiet longer but at least the swell is only maybe half of what one gets further N.

Time will show. They get good wx headups from their headquarters.

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Old 23-11-2015, 14:06   #99
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Re: ARC 2015

Sailing a boat 'poorly' is not a good practice. I think boats suffer less damage when driven reasonably hard. Perhaps someone good in mechanics can say why.

There must be like a 'groove' for each hull and going to fast, as well as going too slow (sic!), affects the boat's and the crew's ability to sail safe.

IMHO.

Just an opinion based on not at all too many miles sailed.

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Old 23-11-2015, 14:33   #100
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Re: ARC 2015

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I don't understand you. Poorly sailed means that the skipper and crew are not very good and that similar boats, better sailed are way ahead. That happens for instance with a Lagoon 39, a Fountain Pajot 47 and a Lagoon 560 that are on the tail of the ARC, with similar boats, better sailed way ahead.

That has nothing to do with ego but certainly with comfort level: a good sailor will have a much higher comfort level than a poor sailor, he knows better how to exploit the boat and what is dangerous and not. A poor sailor just does not know what is dangerous or not and so opt for a very careful approach.

Do you thing that the similar cats that are near the head of the ARC are being sailed in a dangerous way? I don't think so.
Sail plans don't matter?

You couldn't possibly know what sails each boat has on board, but yet a slower boat equals a poor sailor?

This is a rally, not every participant considers it a race. Some consider it a herd of boats making their way to the Caribbean.
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Old 23-11-2015, 15:17   #101
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Re: ARC 2015

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Sail plans don't matter?

You couldn't possibly know what sails each boat has on board, but yet a slower boat equals a poor sailor?

This is a rally, not every participant considers it a race. Some consider it a herd of boats making their way to the Caribbean.
The examples I gave of poorly sailed cats has not to do with the use of special downwind sails, like gennakers or spinnakers and it is assumed that boats that go to a transat have at least the normal standard sails that come with the boat and probably at least a genoa.

I am talking about a Lagoon 39 that is outsailed by a Najad 34 or a Lagoon 560 that is as fast as that Najad 34 and that is hugely outsailed by a Dufour 34 and a Luffe 37.09, these two very well sailed. I believe that we can talk here of poorly sailed sailboats.

Regarding the spirit on a rally, where all boats have a final classification, it involves some friendly competition even if it is obvious that there are some more competitive than others, but nobody likes to be outsailed by other boats, specially if they are smaller ones, not to mention monohulls and multihulls revality. Everybody is doing what they can in a safe way and what their boats allow.

Some sailors can do more than others as well as some boats, if adequately sailed, can go faster than others.
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Old 23-11-2015, 15:22   #102
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Re: ARC 2015

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I see. If they are lucky, this may be one of the shortest ARCs! ...
b.
I think so. Very good wind if that big patch of slow wind is a avoided and if one sails North, it will be avoided for sure. Also, contrary to the last years it seems to be a very constant medium wind without very strong winds, even for the ones that chose to go North. The true trade winds that have been a bit absent on the last editions
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Old 23-11-2015, 17:25   #103
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Re: ARC 2015

It was not too bad last two seasons I think. But I do remember a year when some boats turned round and powered back to Las Palmas!

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Old 23-11-2015, 17:29   #104
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Re: ARC 2015

We cannot tell which one is poorly sailed from here. Same designs may be differently loaded and fly different sails too. Their speeds will vary wildly. Also, speed is not the only factor, they are cruising, not racing. It is a RALLY, not a race. To get there later but in comfort and style is a win win.

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Old 23-11-2015, 17:38   #105
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Re: ARC 2015

Re wx there is often a bar somewhere half way towards and in some years another one between midway and the landfall. Being further N does not help as more swell implies longer parking time for smaller boats. Further South the gap lasts longer but it is flatter there and so good boats with sailworthy crews may sail longer into the lull and take off sooner when the new wind rolls in.

Then again there have been years with no mid-Atlantic parking time at all.

It would be an interesting experiment to sail it once trimming and laying the courses minding comfort only. I guess it would take more time but have no idea how much.

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