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Old 25-05-2017, 08:56   #1
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Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.

For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
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Old 25-05-2017, 09:50   #2
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Great........
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Old 25-05-2017, 10:01   #3
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Still waiting on the TSR report which comes out in a few days. Its my understanding that this report is the most reliable from a historical standpoint.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide
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Old 26-05-2017, 08:25   #4
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

the published info is same as produced annually by noaa. whoopee. on west coat mexico we receive and experience 19-21 annual named events. every year.
named events happen. get used to it. mebbe a few years on west coastal mexico in cane season might season ye a tad. there is nothing to fear if you are well protected and prepared for the worst.
is just a bit of rain with a slight breeze.
good prep is your best protection from damages by a weather event. there is enough advanced notice of storms to be able to sail and enjoy the summer without being slammed. even during the week between storms here on mexico west coast there is time to sail and enjoy anchorages vacated by those in direst need of sailing north for the false security of northern marinas as dictated by the insurance companies who refuse now to cover losses experienced in guaymas, thanks to newton and friends. we have a week between storms when 'cane season is at its height.
to be safest, find a 'cane hole and hunker down. haul out if you need to know your abandoned boat is gonna be ok. safety is merely an illusion. or delusion, as you see fit.
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Old 26-05-2017, 08:35   #5
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching
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Old 26-05-2017, 08:38   #6
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

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The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching
is same all over. irresponsibility is a plague. best of luck. take pictures of those who could be problematic in a strong storm.
you may need those for insurance purposes.
make sure you prep well and photograph your prep.
happy cane season.
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Old 26-05-2017, 08:39   #7
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

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The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching


That's the truth......I'm surrounded by boat owners who don't even know how to lower (seriously) their furled headsails.
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Old 26-05-2017, 08:50   #8
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Ive salvaged a lot of hurricane wrecks..
Funny enough,on half of them,the windlass has
Been torn out of the foredeck,,
So that 20ton block of cement you have down
There is no good unless you take line from the
Windlass back to cockpit winchess,,and further.
In the meantime,fingers crossed to a quiet
Season..
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Old 26-05-2017, 10:03   #9
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

as an adjuster I can only hope
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Old 26-05-2017, 10:18   #10
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Quote: "Ive salvaged a lot of hurricane wrecks..Funny enough,on half of them,the windlass has been torn out of the foredeck,So that 20ton block of cement you have down There is no good unless you take line from the
Windlass back to cockpit winchess,,and further. In the meantime,fingers crossed to a quiet Season.."

Apropos of a discussion we had on another thread about capstans, windlasses, hawse pipes and spurling pipes. Let the newbs beware! Those little toys on the foredeck aren't up to much. When the going get tough you'd better be prepared to give them a helping hand :-)!

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Old 26-05-2017, 12:07   #11
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

I think this is several years in a row that they have a higher than average forecast. This year, theoretically with a small/non-existent El Nino, they may actually be correct.

Sooner or later there will be a higher than average year. Maybe they'll get it right this year.

(I'd hate to be a forecaster!)
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Old 26-05-2017, 12:25   #12
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

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I

(I'd hate to be a forecaster!)


Are you kidding!!!

That would be a great job! Wrong most of the time and your product is still sought out!!
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Old 26-05-2017, 12:54   #13
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Imho these predictions are wild scientific guesses and next to useless for the sailing crowd.

They are also often vastly wrong. I can remember at least two years when HM meteorologists predicted very likely very active seasons and the seasons turned out WAY below long term averages.

It is nice they are trying though.

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Old 26-05-2017, 13:43   #14
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Funny, I haven't heard a below average prediction in years, wonder why?
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Old 26-05-2017, 13:49   #15
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic

Same here in Aus, get a "higher than average" forecast every year, and below average seasons for the past several.

Obviously if they keep forecasting above average, they have to be right eventually.
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