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25-05-2017, 08:56
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Landlocked in Wyoming
Boat: Dreaming...dreaming...
Posts: 5
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Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.
For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.
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25-05-2017, 09:50
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Houston
Boat: '76 Allied Seawind II, 32'
Posts: 9,626
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Great........
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26-05-2017, 08:25
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#4
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cat herder, extreme blacksheep
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
the published info is same as produced annually by noaa. whoopee. on west coat mexico we receive and experience 19-21 annual named events. every year.
named events happen. get used to it. mebbe a few years on west coastal mexico in cane season might season ye a tad. there is nothing to fear if you are well protected and prepared for the worst.
is just a bit of rain with a slight breeze.
good prep is your best protection from damages by a weather event. there is enough advanced notice of storms to be able to sail and enjoy the summer without being slammed. even during the week between storms here on mexico west coast there is time to sail and enjoy anchorages vacated by those in direst need of sailing north for the false security of northern marinas as dictated by the insurance companies who refuse now to cover losses experienced in guaymas, thanks to newton and friends. we have a week between storms when 'cane season is at its height.
to be safest, find a 'cane hole and hunker down. haul out if you need to know your abandoned boat is gonna be ok. safety is merely an illusion. or delusion, as you see fit.
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26-05-2017, 08:35
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: On a boat
Boat: 1987 Cabo Rico 38 #117 (sold) & 2008 Manta 42 #124
Posts: 4,172
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching
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26-05-2017, 08:38
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#6
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cat herder, extreme blacksheep
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Quote:
Originally Posted by zboss
The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching
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is same all over. irresponsibility is a plague. best of luck. take pictures of those who could be problematic in a strong storm.
you may need those for insurance purposes.
make sure you prep well and photograph your prep.
happy cane season.
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26-05-2017, 08:39
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Houston
Boat: '76 Allied Seawind II, 32'
Posts: 9,626
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Quote:
Originally Posted by zboss
The worst are your fellow sailors that do nothing at all to prep their boat when there is a storm approaching
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That's the truth......I'm surrounded by boat owners who don't even know how to lower (seriously) their furled headsails.
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26-05-2017, 08:50
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 184
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Ive salvaged a lot of hurricane wrecks..
Funny enough,on half of them,the windlass has
Been torn out of the foredeck,,
So that 20ton block of cement you have down
There is no good unless you take line from the
Windlass back to cockpit winchess,,and further.
In the meantime,fingers crossed to a quiet
Season..
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26-05-2017, 10:03
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Green cove springs
Boat: Freedom 45
Posts: 77
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
as an adjuster I can only hope
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26-05-2017, 10:18
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#10
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,174
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Quote: "Ive salvaged a lot of hurricane wrecks.. Funny enough,on half of them,the windlass has been torn out of the foredeck,So that 20ton block of cement you have down There is no good unless you take line from the
Windlass back to cockpit winchess,,and further. In the meantime,fingers crossed to a quiet Season.."
Apropos of a discussion we had on another thread about capstans, windlasses, hawse pipes and spurling pipes. Let the newbs beware! Those little toys on the foredeck aren't up to much. When the going get tough you'd better be prepared to give them a helping hand :-)!
TP
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26-05-2017, 12:07
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Katy, TX
Posts: 400
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
I think this is several years in a row that they have a higher than average forecast. This year, theoretically with a small/non-existent El Nino, they may actually be correct.
Sooner or later there will be a higher than average year. Maybe they'll get it right this year.
(I'd hate to be a forecaster!)
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26-05-2017, 12:25
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Houston
Boat: '76 Allied Seawind II, 32'
Posts: 9,626
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Quote:
Originally Posted by leboyd
I
(I'd hate to be a forecaster!)
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Are you kidding!!!
That would be a great job! Wrong most of the time and your product is still sought out!!
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26-05-2017, 12:54
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: between the devil and the deep blue sea
Boat: a sailing boat
Posts: 20,420
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Imho these predictions are wild scientific guesses and next to useless for the sailing crowd.
They are also often vastly wrong. I can remember at least two years when HM meteorologists predicted very likely very active seasons and the seasons turned out WAY below long term averages.
It is nice they are trying though.
b.
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26-05-2017, 13:43
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Beaufort SC Atlanta Ga
Boat: Pearson 36-2, Pearson 26 'annapolis'
Posts: 196
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Funny, I haven't heard a below average prediction in years, wonder why?
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26-05-2017, 13:49
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,398
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Re: Another 'above-normal' hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic
Same here in Aus, get a "higher than average" forecast every year, and below average seasons for the past several.
Obviously if they keep forecasting above average, they have to be right eventually.
__________________
"You CANNOT be serious!"
John McEnroe
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