Cruisers Forum
 


Join CruisersForum Today

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 30-05-2015, 09:24   #31
CF Adviser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Boat: Custom Van De Stadt 47 Samoa
Posts: 3,743
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Anyone know what his miles/day average is like. On Hawk we would have been getting in by the 3rd, and on Silk by the 5th. The low is coming off Hatteras on the 5th, so he may well be in, in front of it. It's not a terrible low in any case.

5th
Click image for larger version

Name:	06050600.jpg
Views:	97
Size:	100.1 KB
ID:	102931

6th
Click image for larger version

Name:	06060600.jpg
Views:	106
Size:	115.1 KB
ID:	102930

7th
Click image for larger version

Name:	06070600.jpg
Views:	100
Size:	96.6 KB
ID:	102929

Those are the gribs we would have gotten while at sea.
__________________

__________________
estarzinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-05-2015, 09:31   #32
CF Adviser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Boat: Custom Van De Stadt 47 Samoa
Posts: 3,743
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Quote:
Originally Posted by monte View Post
What is the general tactic to cross the Gulf Stream on this passage? Keep well offshore and parallel to the stream till favourable conditions to cross exist (wind from the Southerly sector)?
There are two approaches: (1) is to stay south/east of the stream as long as you can and then cross at a right angle, picking a crossing time when there is no northerly wind. And use Bermuda in case of a terrible forecast. That's the safe and comfortable approach. (2) is to go west looking for the stream and ride it as long as you can. If bad weather pops up you duck further to the east out of the stream (perhaps into port depending on the forecast).

We always liked #1.
__________________

__________________
estarzinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-05-2015, 11:38   #33
Registered User
 
ontherocks83's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Massachusetts
Boat: Checkmate Strobe 201
Posts: 1,593
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Quote:
Originally Posted by estarzinger View Post
There are two approaches: (1) is to stay south/east of the stream as long as you can and then cross at a right angle, picking a crossing time when there is no northerly wind. And use Bermuda in case of a terrible forecast. That's the safe and comfortable approach. (2) is to go west looking for the stream and ride it as long as you can. If bad weather pops up you duck further to the east out of the stream (perhaps into port depending on the forecast).

We always liked #1.
2 sounds great and can probably really speed up the trip but if the weather goes pear shaped that doesn't seem like a fun place to be. It will be interesting to see what route he picked after he gets to NY.
__________________
-Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum
-Molon Labe
ontherocks83 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-05-2015, 18:54   #34
Eternal Member

Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 848
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Quote:
Originally Posted by colemj View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by mct
His HF might work or not, might have broken. Irrelevant.
I don't see how that is irrelevant. If he has a working HF, he has access to a professional weather forecaster/router providing specific weather forecasting/routing information for his precise route twice a day for free.

Or do you think your passageweather interpretations are better for him?

Mark
No more relevant than Mark's position, I suppose :-) Hell, even the fanboys of Rimas offering their crowd-sourced weather routing expertise via Facebook and DeLorme InReach at least generally had a clue as to where the guy was...

I guess we can presume Mark does not have any HF receive capability... Probably just me, but it's far from "clear" to me exactly what the OP is looking for... But if he wanted to offer some useful input to Mark, he might start by watching Chris' daily podcast (except for Sundays) at the Caribbean WX Center. Pretty sure he's routing the Spring Salty Dawg rally fleet back to the States as we speak, that's probably about as "relevant" info as he's gonna get...

:-)
__________________
Jon Eisberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2015, 11:00   #35
RTB
Registered User
 
RTB's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Home port Kemah, TX Currently in Brunswick Georgia
Boat: Hunter 36
Posts: 1,509
Images: 2
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Hopefully Mark is in port before the weekend. From Dr. Jeff Masters-

+
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. We've already had one early season storm, Tropical Storm Ana; will we have an early June Tropical Storm Bill? There are indications that the second tropical depression of the year has a chance to form late this week in the waters near South Florida or the Bahama Islands on Friday or Saturday. We have warmer than average SSTs in these waters, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be active in the Western Hemisphere late this week, and both of these factors argue for higher than usual odds of an early June tropical depression forming in the Atlantic. Over the past few days, the GFS model has been consistently advertising the possibility that an area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical depression will form in this region, although the European model (so far) has not gone along with this idea. If we do get something developing, it would potentially be a heavy rain threat for South Florida and the Northern Bahamas over the weekend, but then move northeastwards out to sea without troubling any more land areas.
RTB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2015, 12:23   #36
cat herder, extreme blacksheep
 
zeehag's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 17,767
Images: 56
Send a message via Yahoo to zeehag Send a message via Skype™ to zeehag
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

atlantic had a preseason storm. y'alls season begins today. ours on west coast started 15th may. we have one major and a growing to be major.
this season will spozedly be easy for you guys and a bitch for us.
there is an abnormality in a circlish shape south of where i hope mark already was....
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	download (7).jpg
Views:	63
Size:	359.2 KB
ID:	103037  
zeehag is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-06-2015, 14:19   #37
CF Adviser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Boat: Custom Van De Stadt 47 Samoa
Posts: 3,743
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Potential tropical depression quickly crossing the area on the 7th thru 9th. Note: (1) this is still beyond the decent forecast accuracy window [and I will note that the past weeks +5-days out forecast have been very low accuracy, even less accurate than usual], (2) it is not currently forecast to be that strong, and (3) probably poses no threat to Mark's track (depending on how far we think he ill have gotten) . . .. . but it is a clear example of something I would keep a close eye on if we were out there - as we know from Sandy, while these things usually curve east . . . sometimes they don't even when they are forecast to.


7th:
Click image for larger version

Name:	0607.jpg
Views:	86
Size:	110.7 KB
ID:	103042

8th:
Click image for larger version

Name:	0608.jpg
Views:	83
Size:	118.3 KB
ID:	103043

9th:
Click image for larger version

Name:	0609.jpg
Views:	83
Size:	115.2 KB
ID:	103044
__________________
estarzinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2015, 08:44   #38
CF Adviser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Boat: Custom Van De Stadt 47 Samoa
Posts: 3,743
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

^^ that tropical depression has entirely disappeared from today's forecast run. They have really had an unusually bad run of +5 day out forecast accuracy.
__________________
estarzinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2015, 20:51   #39
Eternal Member

Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 848
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Quote:
Originally Posted by ontherocks83 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by estarzinger
There are two approaches: (1) is to stay south/east of the stream as long as you can and then cross at a right angle, picking a crossing time when there is no northerly wind. And use Bermuda in case of a terrible forecast. That's the safe and comfortable approach. (2) is to go west looking for the stream and ride it as long as you can. If bad weather pops up you duck further to the east out of the stream (perhaps into port depending on the forecast).

We always liked #1.
2 sounds great and can probably really speed up the trip but if the weather goes pear shaped that doesn't seem like a fun place to be. It will be interesting to see what route he picked after he gets to NY.
Well, taking advantage of the Stream to any significant degree would likely involve a route far different from the more rhumb line approach to this passage that Mark would appear to be taking...

It shouldn't be dismissed, however... After a few recent very nice passages back from the islands employing what could be termed the 'Big Bend' curve to the west, I've become a big fan of that approach.

However, my perspective on such passages is largely informed by the fact that I sail a boat with a meager 25 feet of waterline, without the ability to do much in the way of maneuvering into favorable positions relative to weather systems. After a few days out, I usually become pretty much of a sitting duck for whatever is gonna come my way... (Not to mention, I possess nowhere remotely close to the weather analysis acumen of a guy like Evans :-)) So, for those reasons, when sailing my own boat, or others shorthanded, I prefer the route that might afford me some options, and riding the big Westward Curve back from the islands fits that bill nicely...

I left from Antigua on 8 May with a V-42 bound for the Chesapeake. We were just starting to hear about the possible formation of TS Ana, so for me shooting straight for Hatteras was off the table... Instead, after passing over the top of Anegada, we shaped a course which would pass N of the Silver Bank and Turks & Caicos, and outside of the Bahamas, with the idea of hitching a ride in the Stream from there... We set the whisker pole abeam of Anegada, and never touched it again for roughly 700 miles, until abeam of Rum Cay and the entrance to Exuma Sound... Absolutely glorious sailing, far enough clear of PR and Hispaniola to avoid the squall activity those islands often seem to generate. Easy, fast sailing, save for a bit of rolling due to a NE swell being developed by Ana well to the N...





However, there was also a large disturbance stalled to the N of the Abacos, so we went up Exuma Sound and the NW Providence Channel, instead... With light air forecast for the run up towards Hatteras, we made a quick pit stop for fuel in Ft Pierce, then carried on, pulling into Beaufort shortly before the arrival of the first of 2 cold fronts that passed over the mid-Atlantic states prior to Memorial Day weekend...

Of course, one of the options this route affords to boats that are ICW-capable, is the possibility of passing inside behind Hatteras. Actually, by far the toughest part of this trip was the beat across Albemarle Sound, and then up the Lower Chesapeake after the passage of the second reinforcing cold front... So, while heading up The Ditch from Beaufort to Norfolk might be the less 'pure' way to make the passage back from the islands, that option can come in might handy, sometimes :-) There is no way I would have wanted to be E of the Outer Banks during that time, and I'm sure we were tied up at the dock in Annapolis, while a couple of boats that had to go out around Hatteras, were still sitting in Beaufort waiting for things to settle down...

Still, even with boats that have to go outside, I still really like the Big Bend approach... Two years ago at this time, I left Trinidad with an H-R 43 headed for Annapolis... By the time we passed thru the Mona Passage, Chris Parker began warning of what was to eventually become TS Andrea... Again, the rhumb line to the Chesapeake was off the table for me, and we sailed up thru the Bahamas to keep our options open, and wound up hunkering down in Ft Pierce as the storm passed over the Florida peninsula up around Daytona. At the same time we were going thru the Mona Passage, an Island Packet 38 left San Juan, sailing direct for Charleston... They met up with Andrea about 100 miles off the SC coast, whereupon the CG lifted the 4 crew off into a Jayhawk helo... A day later, we jumped out into the Stream off Ft Pierce, enjoyed perfect sailing conditions in the wake of Andrea's passage, and were tied up in a slip at Port Annapolis exactly 99 hours later :-)





Again, looking at the charts, this route might appear to be the long way around... But it has worked very well for me, and I think for certain boats and crews - especially in the absence of an extremely favorable and reliable weather pattern over the rhumb line route - is certainly an option worth considering...
__________________
Jon Eisberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 06:43   #40
Eternal Member
 
monte's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Australia
Boat: Lagoon 400
Posts: 3,650
Images: 1
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

Great post Jon, thanks. I agree keeping the most options available makes sense, especially with an area where the longer range forecasts would seem to be a bit difficult to make.
__________________
monte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2015, 11:28   #41
CF Adviser

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Aug 2009
Boat: Custom Van De Stadt 47 Samoa
Posts: 3,743
Re: Advice for MarkJ routing St Martin - NYC

^^ one thing to note . . . Is that there are (usually) big eddies to the south/east of the (main axis) Gulf Stream. Many cruisers are not getting Gulf Stream charts, but if you do, you can often line up a couple of these eddies and get a significant current boost without going spas far off the rumb line as the north wall. This is a tactic/tool you pick up/learn when nav on Bermuda races - it's critical then. But when cruising, eddy awareness can also can help you avoid square wave areas (wind against current in the eddy).

I personal prefer to stay east simply because the water is warmer - you can delay putting on pants and socks!
__________________

__________________
estarzinger is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
nyc, St Martin

Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Routing advice Chesapeake to Grenada in Spring gonzemoi Atlantic & the Caribbean 1 24-11-2013 14:23
Seriously Considering Living Aboard in NYC and Need Advice ladyvee Liveaboard's Forum 34 14-12-2012 19:59
Need Routing Advice ! sbauhaus Atlantic & the Caribbean 2 03-11-2011 18:26
Advice, Please: Florida to St Martin Leese4 Sailor Logs & Cruising Plans 7 18-03-2011 03:00
NYC to Montauk Roundtrip - Advice? Isaac Zal Sailor Logs & Cruising Plans 6 07-05-2009 08:59



Copyright 2002- Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 11:18.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.