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Old 29-07-2011, 09:06   #16
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

what ye FEEL is what ye get---might SEE a tboomer at a distance but it can miss ye.

and add 20-30 kph to any wind gusstimate made by noaa in gom..and pacific
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Old 29-07-2011, 09:20   #17
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

Was setting off south to Bermuda from Montauk last week with the intention of maybe spending the summer cruising around the Bahamas. Thought we might get a season such as 2 years ago when almost no cyclonic storms developed during the summer. Well, besides it being just too damned hot with no wind, looks like I may have made an unusually correct decision to delay. Looks like the TS season is starting. Will be interesting to see whether the old style winter we had and this steaming hot summer will produce hurricanes that follow their traditional coastal paths.

It must be great to have a computer connected to the internet! On the hook, I have only NOAA WFax via SSB. Little confidence here in NOAA forecasts but being able to get a look at pressure system maps is quite useful. As in any forecasting, knowing the local weather patterns is probably the best defense against running into nasty, unpredicted weather. Just re-reading "The Perfect Storm," after being in Swordboat territory for a couple of weeks...talk about scary weather!
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Old 29-07-2011, 09:51   #18
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

these people are generally pretty good
Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands
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Old 29-07-2011, 09:58   #19
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaeldsusa View Post
Thanks. Great site. Haven't seen that one before


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Old 29-07-2011, 10:02   #20
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

The Tropical Wave area MarkJ mentioned at 8N 39W shows up on the Surface Analysis chart shown below. It is the blue area with 1008 mb and L at the bottom, slightly right side of the chart. Notice the wind arrows are showing a cyclonic direction around the area. This indicates one that needs to be watched although it is rather early to do anything else than watch it.
- - Go to Maps : Weather Underground
and click on "Animate" at the right end of the bar just above the black map labeled GFS SURPRES. Let the charts load and watch as this same area works its way west and dissipates by Monday and then forms up again as it crosses over the Windward Islands on Wednesday.
- - But of importance is to notice that the mid-Atlantic High located southwest of the Azores holds it shape and position throughout the forecast time span until about the second Tuesday (Tuesday week) and then opens a path/channel for weather systems to hook north and back east.
- - It is this constancy in the North Atlantic High that acts as a block to drive a storm system westerly and prevents them from hooking north as they would normally do. When you get that situation the probability of getting "action" in the lower Windwards is much higher.
- - But be aware that any forecasts stretching out more than a couple, three days has a high degree on inaccuracy. But you can see the trend for the weather system to fall apart as it continues west - unless - Mother Nature changes her mind and feels like "taking it up a notch" just to get your "juices" flowing.
- -
But again, as John A rightly mentioned, there are no less than a half dozen different "models" out there for weather forecasting. At least 5 of them from USA metrological organizations. And invariably they all differ in their forecasts with some of them being quite the opposite of others. I jokingly usually tell folks that it is as if "they" are doing some C.Y.A. so that whatever happens or doesn't happen "they" can say, Well, we told you so, see in this model . . .
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Old 29-07-2011, 10:03   #21
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

Here is another great website used by airline pilots...

Intellicast - Atlantic Analysis in United States

The further south you are in the Caribbean the less likely you will encounter a hurricane IMO. I dont think Barbados has been hit in 50 years although it was just missed a few years back I think!!
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Old 29-07-2011, 10:30   #22
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

weather is odd here in pair a dice, mazatlan also--we actually have rain coming down in daylight hours....where is the justice in that, other than keeping down the temperature!!!!! it usually rains in darkness so sleep is interrupted with a beautiful and scary light show and tympany music......
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Old 29-07-2011, 13:52   #23
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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Originally Posted by osirissail View Post
The Tropical Wave area MarkJ mentioned at 8N 39W shows up on the Surface Analysis chart shown below. .
Models now showing it will give the BVI's a dust-up next Wednesday.

But very early to predict.
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Old 29-07-2011, 14:08   #24
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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Models now showing it will give the BVI's a dust-up next Wednesday.

But very early to predict.

An area of surface low pressure associated with a well-defined tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic, a little more than half way between Africa and the Windward Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to remain weak through the weekend as the system moves over increasingly warm waters, so development is possible before the system reaches the Windward and Leeward Islands by Monday. It could then affect other portions of the eastern Caribbean from the Virgin Islands to Haiti.
Another tropical wave has just departed the west coast of Africa, but it has emerged over cooler waters a little farther north than the previous wave, and development is not expected for at least the next few days as it moves westward.

Looks like you have nothing to fear Mark, however BVI and west looks rough.
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Old 30-07-2011, 07:31   #25
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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This wave's the strongest one we've had so far this season, at least up here in the Leewards. I managed to get a quick round of golf in this morning before the heavens split open about noontime. Then came the lightning, gusty winds up to 40 kts, and lots of rain, about an inch per hour for the last three hours. The good news is that my cistern is overflowing!
I was sailing from St. Bart's back to Oyster Pond when this squall hit around 2:00pm. The highest wind speed I saw was 44 kts true. I had to put on my scuba mask to see my hand. There where nice swells from the northwest and the wind blew from the southwest which created some screwed up sea's. As I approached the entrance to Oyster Pond I could see the waves where breaking across the reef so I instead went to Anse Marcel. I was 95% certain I could make it into the Pond but the result of failure was unacceptable. We basically had two weeks of screwed up weather where it was sunny with no wind, rained, or blew to 30kts. I'm leaving the Caribbean in April but if I return, I'll probably avoid sailing in the hurricane season. Not only from fear of storms, but because the weather kind of sucks.

Look's like Mark could be in for a ride in a couple days. Good luck.
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Old 30-07-2011, 07:45   #26
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

When the Silk spiders come down from their webs in the power lines, to close to the ground, we know a storm is 72 hrs from Bermuda.
That is if the Kiskadee birds haven't eaten the spiders in your neighbourhood.
Then we check the NHS
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Old 30-07-2011, 08:59   #27
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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Originally Posted by Palarran View Post
As I approached the entrance to Oyster Pond I could see the waves where breaking across the reef so I instead went to Anse Marcel. I was 95% certain I could make it into the Pond but the result of failure was unacceptable. .
Thats a very tricky enterance! I've seen it when it was closed out and not nice.
The necessity to go so close to the starboard chanel markers means that any wave can toss you too far to port. Nasty.

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Old 31-07-2011, 07:19   #28
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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For instance, there are no "Lobsters" in the Caribbean. The have always been and been referred to as "Langosta" which is a regional name for the "clawless" version. The Clawed version found in the northeastern regions of the North America are properly called "Lobsters. But now you will see, read and hear the restaurants and markets in the Caribbean adopting the name "lobster" rather than "Langosta."
Sorry for the topic deviation. Langosta is the name in Spanish, and Lobster in English. Since most species in the Spanish-speaking world are without claws, the name generalizes to the clawed-ones too (homarus gamarus). I guess the reverse is true, and English-speakers will name lobster the palinurus elephas.

I don't see this as a sign of cultural decline. I don't deny such decline in many places, tough: things change, nothing is stable and linear.
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Old 31-07-2011, 07:38   #29
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

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Sorry for the topic deviation. Langosta is the name in Spanish, and Lobster in English. Since most species in the Spanish-speaking world are without claws, the name generalizes to the clawed-ones too (homarus gamarus). I guess the reverse is true, and English-speakers will name lobster the palinurus elephas.

I don't see this as a sign of cultural decline. I don't deny such decline in many places, tough: things change, nothing is stable and linear.
Either way, fire up the grill and melt the butter! In Florida they are frequently referred to as bugs. And they call bugs palmetos...

And yes, the weather in the Caribbean does appear to be abnormal so far this year!

Here's to hoping for the best and preparing for the worst

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Old 31-07-2011, 08:15   #30
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Re: Weather Odd in Caribbean

I wish to thank all of you for this thread. I am an aviator by trade and as such use a variety of weather products at work. Given the slow pace of travel by sailboat, I appreciate the exposition of how to use weather products over longer periods of time. You have given me something new to think about and study.

Todd
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