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Old 16-04-2013, 19:13   #16
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Originally Posted by atoll View Post
looking at the unseasonably cold north atlantic this year you may have to head for newfoundland before getting any westerlies in may and june!

motorsailing through the center of the azores high,might save weeks of tacking into headwinds.

the north west coast of africa has had southerly winds the last 2 months! wtf is going on!!!!!!!!!

PS the azores high has been replaced by the azores low..................
There's a lot screwed up at the moment that's for sure

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Old 16-04-2013, 19:45   #17
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

Its global cooling. Maunder minimum coming in again, things are not going to be normal for the nest few decades, the sun spots are reducing in numbers meaning a marked decline in global temperatures, thus changes in wind patterns.
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Old 17-04-2013, 03:04   #18
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Its global cooling. Maunder minimum coming in again, things are not going to be normal for the nest few decades, the sun spots are reducing in numbers meaning a marked decline in global temperatures, thus changes in wind patterns.
I have a good friend who is a global climate modelling expert. He says that its just global warming , as he points out repeatedly , global warming doesn't mean that climate every where gets warmer. For example there is a huge risk that changes in jet stream and Gulf Stream may expose Western Europe to colder, wetter and more disturbed seasons

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Old 17-04-2013, 15:43   #19
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

They can model all the nonsense they like, when the sun goes quiet is gets colder, where do you think the heat comes from in the first place!

We are entering a new maunder minimum just now, sun spot cycles have reduced meaning an minimum of thirty years of cooler weather and changed wind patterns.
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Old 17-04-2013, 16:39   #20
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

Stevensuf has got it right! The climate scientists I know are now ditching the old global warming theory and models. Look to the sun as Stevensurf says...
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Old 17-04-2013, 23:26   #21
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

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Stevensuf has got it right! The climate scientists I know are now ditching the old global warming theory and models. Look to the sun as Stevensurf says...

and no matter what anyone wants to see it looks like the data from sun doesn't fit whats happening...

RealClimate: A review of cosmic rays and climate: a cluttered story of little success

The arctic is warming up and melting awfully quickly though...




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Old 18-04-2013, 01:45   #22
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The effect of the Maunder Minims 400 year cycle, of which we barely have enough evidence to show one full cycle, is at its worst an average change in temperature globally between high amd low of .6c.

One should be even more concerned if we are seeing contiued rises in average global temperature even while there is less and less solar input.

It is also simplistic to think that the weather instability that would accompany temperature rise, or fall for that matter, would include a raise of temperature in all locations.

In fact it is predicted that the temperatures in Weatern Europe will likely collapse if we get a rise of 3c as enough fresh water will have melted from the ice cap that it will change the thermocline currents that propel the Gulf Stream effetively switching it off and all the warmth it brings.

It would mean tha places like i live in Ireland will have hotter drier summers and colder wetter winters. Cant say i would mind having warmer summer though!

Anyway, didnt think my thread would turn into a climate debate. At least it didnt turn into a gun thread

See below for chart showing comparisons of temperature influence by solar indice

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SFdcidBaPR...v_20C_plot.png
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Old 18-04-2013, 06:06   #23
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

I think you will find there is plenty of supporting evidence for sun spots and heat/cold and it was a 2.5 degree drop, its also very funny how co2 levels rose dramatically before every ice age in history began when no one was burning fossil fuels back then.

Last but not least while the arctic may have reduced in size, recently its been making a come back and the antarctic has never stopped growing, surely both poles should be diminishing in size if the earth was globally warming?

Its also a hell of a coincidence that sunspot numbers have been very high since the 50's corresponding to an increase in temp , they diminished slightly in the 70s corresponding to a decrease in temps.

Without the sun this planet would be a ball of ice at 2/3 degrees kelvin, all waether on this planet is directly related to the suns output, yes greenhouse gasses can cause the planet to hold more or less of the heat generated by the sun, but you cant insulate whats not there.

Looking at the trade winds this year, it does not look like we will be having a great crossing.
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Old 18-04-2013, 06:40   #24
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Before more bunkum on Antarctic sea ice ( and the relationship with land ice ) is spouted perhaps you might read through this discussion of believers and skeptics

http://www.skepticalscience.com/anta...aining-ice.htm

The general consensus is currently due to a series of factors , ( some linked to global warming ) is that sea ice is increasing , but land and glacial ice has decreased quite rapidly. The net effect is that Antarctica is loosing ice and quite rapidly.

Sea ice is not year round but comes and goes in Antarctica Hence it doesn't contribute much to global warming effects whereas land ice in the Antarctic peninsula is a significant factor in modelling global warming change

The reverse is true in the Arctic As sea ice is an important modelling factor for global warming as it remains in place all year round

I don't want to go into a debate about global climate change on this thread but it's important to read into this subject deeply to get an understanding of the arguments that go back and forth

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Old 18-04-2013, 07:12   #25
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

Just to get back to the OP . . . . You do not have to, and should not, make this sort of routing decision weeks in advance. You should look at the weather systems when you depart and decide. In some weather patterns it is terrific to go straight and in others it's not.

Today you have the luxury of excellent weather information when planning your departure. Its prudent to use it. The days of 'long pre-planned' (eg ocean passages of the world) routes are over.

I have gone both ways (straight and 'around'). Straight is lovely in the right pattern but horrible with several other patterns.

Quote:
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What is your opinion of a straight shot passage from southern Caribbean to the Azores eventually ending up in Ireland? With more modern boats that have greater motoring capacity and better upwind sailing ability is the old route no longer optimal but perhaps just habit?

The basic idea is that you do an almost straight shot from where you are in the Caribbean, weather dependent of course, to the Azores - the further south you are in the Caribbean the more you benefit from this route option as well.

Myself and Dockhead were chatting about this passage option as it is a faster route back to Europe. I have read several passage logs and I think Boatman and Barnie have done the route - so I am looking for feedback from any who have as I have only done the normal "northern" up the gulf stream and across.

Southern Route Pros:
1. Less time in High Lattitude
2. Quicker Passage

Cons:
1. Can be very little wind so may be alot of motoring.

Would you recommend it?

Thanks.
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Old 18-04-2013, 07:18   #26
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

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...if as your saying your going next year... go later rather than earlier.... mid May onwards... just a feeling...
Foolishsailor it looks like your thread (is) was off course....

I agree with Boatman, but keep track of the Azores High as it tends to meander and choose your route appropriately.
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Old 18-04-2013, 07:18   #27
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

Thanks for the info and thanks for bringing it back on track Evans!

edit: ooop you beat me - thanks as well SV Tatia
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Old 18-04-2013, 07:22   #28
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

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Originally Posted by estarzinger View Post
Just to get back to the OP . . . . You do not have to, and should not, make this sort of routing decision weeks in advance. You should look at the weather systems when you depart and decide. In some weather patterns it is terrific to go straight and in others it's not.

Today you have the luxury of excellent weather information when planning your departure. Its prudent to use it. The days of 'long pre-planned' (eg ocean passages of the world) routes are over.

I have gone both ways (straight and 'around'). Straight is lovely in the right pattern but horrible with several other patterns.
Considering I will be coming from the far south of the Caribbean - is there ever really a time where the 'around' route is superior - with all the added miles?

I can understand going more NNE instead of NE in the initial part of the crossing to get past the Azores high if it is unfavorable, but wouldnt you basically look at the wind and estimated direction of the immediate winds on departure and look to hit the optimal crossing point of the High with the idea to hug it as you make east?

edit: To clarify - I am looking at this as a "Delivery" style passage to bring a boat back relatively quickly after a season with no intention or desire to hop up the islands or goto Bermuda.
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Old 18-04-2013, 09:03   #29
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Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

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Considering I will be coming from the far south of the Caribbean - is there ever really a time where the 'around' route is superior - with all the added miles?
That will depend in part on the boat - how much diesel and how well she goes very close reaching.

From the far south of the Caribbean, my experience is the best I am usually able to do is pretty much due north, with perhaps a very little east. If you are lucky and get a really good dose of SE trades you can do better than that. Usually I don't manage to make all that much east until I am past about 25N, but one trip I left BVI and was able just to head direct on the GreatCircle route to Ireland.

But to your direct question, yes, at least for me, there are weather patterns when at least somewhat "around" makes sense. Getting pushed all the way to Bermuda would be unusual, but being well west of the great circle track would not.
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Old 18-04-2013, 10:21   #30
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pirate Re: Is it better do W to E Atlantic Crossing via the Southern "Straight" route?

Personally I'd run up to Antigua or St Martin before the hop and wait for the 'window' there... you gain nothing from a more southerly start.. except getting tired before you need to..
And I'd also grab all the Easting you can as and when you can as the Gulf Stream will be pushing you W at around 25miles a day.. plus wind effect.. so though you may be pointing NE your track is actually NNE... you sail a curve... whether you want to or not..
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